141
FXUS64 KAMA 050004
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
704 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Upper level troughing continues across the region in the short
term period. A couple of short wave perturbations are expected to
traverse across the High Plains and allow showers and
thunderstorms to form tonight and tomorrow.

Today, near and below average highs are forecast for many places
across the combined Panhandles thanks to the quicker progression
of the cold front today. Breezy, northerly winds should remain in
place through the rest of the day. A slight chance for isolated
thunderstorms are possible in Collingsworth County this evening if
the front hangs back in that area, otherwise convection behind the
boundary should not commence until the overnight period.

Midnight onward, a new band of showers and thunderstorms should
generate across the combined Panhandles, generally favoring the
central and northern Texas Panhandle. Storms should be scattered
and elevated in nature. There is a very small chance that a few of
them could be strong to severe, given the favorable shear and
lapse rates aloft. However, effective CAPE is expected to be on
the lower end and 500 mb temperatures close to -8 degrees Celsius
will also disallow for large hail production. If storms can
overcome some lingering CIN and develop robust updrafts, then
perhaps severe hail and damaging winds could occur.

By Friday morning, showers may still be active in the Texas
Panhandle. They should exit the region to the east by the
afternoon. Later in the evening, an additional wave of
thunderstorms may move in from New Mexico. Their progression in
the area should be limited to the western Panhandles until
Saturday morning when they finally advance across the rest of the
CWA. Due to the prolonged cloud coverage and multiple bands of
showers, day time highs should only be in the 70`s and 80`s
tomorrow.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Starting the coming weekend into early next week, our rain chances
continue. Latest 04/12Z model and numerical guidance shows a H500
high build across the Sierra Nevada range with H500 NNW flow into
the Panhandles. This will result in daily diurnal convection
moving SSE from the CO/NM high terrain into portions of the
Panhandles each day. Some storms could be strong to severe with
strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain being the main threats.
Towards the end of the forecast period, the aforementioned H500
high pressure will shift towards the northern Rockies/Black
Hills. With resultant anemic easterly and northeasterly H500 flow
into the Panhandles, the axis of better moisture transport and
overall lift should stay north of the Panhandles, bringing dry
conditions back to the Panhandles. Temperatures will be slightly
below average starting this weekend into early next week before
moderating to near average by the end of the forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the 00Z TAFs, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop after 06Z tonight across the area, with precipitation
lingering until around mid to late Friday morning. Have included
PROB30 groups for thunderstorms at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA from 09Z
to 15Z since confidence is highest in that time frame. Expect MVFR
cigs to form late tonight and persist through Friday morning at
KDHT and KAMA, then lift into the VFR category Friday afternoon.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  81  62  88 /  50  50  30  30
Beaver OK                  62  84  60  89 /  30  20  10  20
Boise City OK              57  79  57  87 /  50  20  30  30
Borger TX                  65  87  63  93 /  50  50  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              62  83  61  90 /  50  50  40  30
Canyon TX                  60  79  60  87 /  50  50  40  30
Clarendon TX               64  81  63  86 /  50  50  20  30
Dalhart TX                 58  80  57  89 /  50  40  40  30
Guymon OK                  59  82  58  88 /  50  50  30  30
Hereford TX                63  80  61  89 /  50  50  40  30
Lipscomb TX                63  84  61  89 /  40  40  10  20
Pampa TX                   62  82  61  87 /  50  50  20  30
Shamrock TX                66  85  63  89 /  50  50  10  20
Wellington TX              66  86  63  89 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...02