520
FXUS64 KAMA 030603
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
103 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today through Wednesday
night for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some of the storms
on either day could be severe, with damaging winds and large hail
being the primary hazards. Temperatures tomorrow will be a bit
cooler with cloud cover lingering across the area and potential
showers.

Latest visible satellite imagery depicts mid level clouds
remaining across most of the central and eastern Panhandles early
this afternoon. These clouds have not been handled well by model
guidance, even at the time of this writing. Temperatures have
struggled to warm up across much of the area with most locations
still in the lower 90s down to the mid 80s. A cold front is
continuing to slowly move south across the region this afternoon
and is currently along a line from south of Dalhart, up through
near Spearman, and up through western portions of Beaver county.

Regarding the thunderstorm chances for today, the cloud cover has
definitely had an impact on how early storms are now expected to
develop later on today. Initially, storms were expected to begin
firing along the cold front around 3-4 PM this afternoon as areas
ahead of the front reached the convective temperature for today.
With highs now a few degrees lower than initially forecast, it is
looking more and more likely that temperatures will not hit the
convective temperatures for today. Current thinking is that the
storm potential will hold off until late afternoon or early
evening as storms move in from the west. Still cannot rule out
some storms developing along the front as the better upper level
lift provided by a shortwave trough moves in during the evening
hours however. Some of the storms still could become strong to
severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary
hazards with sufficient instability and shear. If storms can form
and move north of the cold front, the storms may have the
potential to have somewhat larger hail than currently expected as
the effective shear is around 30 to 40 kts. Showers and storms may
continue through the overnight hours but the severe potential
should wane as after late this evening.

There may be a bit of a lull in the showers and storms around
sunrise tomorrow, but a few isolated to scattered showers or
storms may still be around the Panhandles. With plenty of moisture
throughout the column as depicted by model soundings, it will not
take much lift to generate more showers and storms during the
daytime hours tomorrow. Shower and storm activity looks to become
more widespread late in the morning into early afternoon as a weak
disturbance moves across the region. Model soundings indicate most
of this activity will likely be elevated as surface temperatures
struggle to warm up tomorrow given plentiful cloud cover and the
precipitation prospects. Temperatures for tomorrow should be a bit
cooler than today with all the cloud cover and precipitation
chances during the daytime hours. The best chance for locations to
potentially see a few strong to severe storms tomorrow appears to
be across the west/northwest for Wednesday afternoon if enough
heating can occur and storms move off of the higher terrain and
get to the Panhandles. Confidence is severe storms right now is
low as models have not been handling the temperatures well due to
the cloud cover, so that will need to be closely monitored over
the next 24 hours. Wednesday night any showers and storms should
dissipate and exit the area as the shortwave trough exits off to
the east/northeast.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Showers and thunderstorm chances continue each day from Thursday
through early next week. Some of the storms could be strong to
severe on these days, but details regarding that will need to be
worked out in the coming days. Otherwise, temperatures will be
cooler than the past week or two, with highs in the 80s and 90s.

Independence Day is looking to be a fairly nice Summer day for the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Westerly flow is expected aloft as
ridging begins to build in across the western CONUS and troughing
remains just to the north of the Panhandles across the Northern
Plains. This flow will usher in another cold front that is
forecast to be moving across the Panhandles by Thursday morning.
How far south this front gets throughout the day and how quickly
it moves over the area vary by model to model. Current expectation
is that since this front has a stronger push of cooler air, it
will move through the area by late afternoon on Thursday. This
will create somewhat of a gradient across the region for high
temperatures, with mid 80s north to upper 90s south. With the
front south of the area as a shortwave moves over the Southern
High Plains, may remain south of the forecast area during
Independence Day evening activities. Currently, the better chances
for showers and storms will be early Friday morning.

With the cooler airmass in place on Friday, H850 temperatures are
forecast to only warm up into the mid to upper teens to
potentially 20 Celsius by peak heating on Friday afternoon. A
cooler day is forecast with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
region, a relief from the heat that some will definitely be
thankful for. Winds are currently forecast to be around 15 mph or
less as well so if rain chances hold off until the late afternoon
and evening, Friday may be a very nice day for the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. Temperatures will increase slowly through
the weekend with the warmest temperatures reaching the 90s.
Another weak front is being depicted by forecast model guidance on
Sunday evening that would cool down temperatures a bit once again
on Monday into Tuesday next week. With the flow starting as
westerly late this week and becoming northwesterly during the
weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue each day
into early next week. As we are in the Summer months, cannot rule
out some strong to severe storms any of these days, but that
potential will be better evaluated as we get closer to each
individual day.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
affect parts of the region the rest of tonight. Have enough
confidence to include TSRA at KGUY and VCSH at both KDHT and KAMA
early in this forecast cycle. Timing of any storms impacting the
terminal sites may need to be adjusted as necessary based on
latest radar trends. Finally, additional showers and thunderstorms
may develop Wednesday. Confidence is low on location and occurrence
so have omitted mention at this time.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  96  64  80 /  30  10  50  40
Beaver OK                  65  90  61  84 /  20   0  30  10
Boise City OK              61  86  59  80 /  20   0  40  20
Borger TX                  70  99  65  85 /  30  10  50  30
Boys Ranch TX              67  98  63  82 /  30  10  50  30
Canyon TX                  68  95  62  79 /  30  10  50  40
Clarendon TX               73  97  65  80 /  20  20  50  40
Dalhart TX                 61  92  60  80 /  20   0  40  20
Guymon OK                  63  88  60  83 /  30   0  40  10
Hereford TX                68  97  64  81 /  30  10  50  30
Lipscomb TX                69  96  64  85 /  30  10  40  20
Pampa TX                   69  96  63  81 /  30  10  50  30
Shamrock TX                75 100  66  84 /  10  20  50  40
Wellington TX              77 101  67  85 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...02