225
FXUS64 KAMA 031927
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
227 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

As has been the theme for the past few days, precipitation chances
continue both today and tomorrow for the Panhandles. A few storms
may have the potential to be strong to severe, with damaging winds
and large hail the primary hazards. Most areas will remain around
or below average for temperatures on both of these days.

Satellite imagery depicts cloud cover remaining across most of the
Panhandles with the exceptions being the far southeastern TX
Panhandle and much of the west. Cumulus are developing east of the
mountains in NM/CO and a few showers/storms are starting to form
and slowly drift off to the east. With the cloud cover and rain
showers lingering across the Panhandles today, temperatures have
stayed cool for areas along a line roughly from Hereford, to
Amarillo/Dumas, and up through Canadian to the northeastern
Panhandles. Have adjusted high temperatures down and increased
PoPs for areas receiving rain showers. Will need to keep an eye on
the storms moving off of the higher terrain as they move towards
the Panhandles. The storms will be moving into a slightly higher
shear environment as they move over the Southern High Plains this
evening. Cannot rule out a storm or two become severe, but with
temperatures remaining quite cool today, the environment likely
will not be the most favorable today.

For Independence Day, a cold front will propel down the High
Plains and will move over the Panhandles during the daytime hours.
Northerly winds behind the front are expected with some breezy to
gusty winds. This front will also limit daytime heating for the
northern zones, keeping these areas in the 80s whereas the south
should be able to reach at least the mid to upper 90s. Current
expectation is that the front will clear most of, if not all of,
the Panhandles by late afternoon, with the southeast being the
potential area staying ahead of the front. The front tomorrow
should be the focal point for afternoon/evening storms and with
the current forecast having it south of the CWA, storm chances are
very low and should not have much, if any, impact on Independence
Day evening activities. Additional showers and thunderstorms will
be possible Thursday night into Friday morning as an upper level
disturbance moves over the Panhandles.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorm chances continue each day from Friday
through Tuesday for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some of the
storms could be strong to severe on these days. Temperatures are
forecast to be right around average or just below average.

Northwest flow at H500 will prevail each day during the long term
forecast period. For Friday, a trough will will be located across
the north central CONUS with ridging out west. The Panhandles will
still be influenced by the cold front from the day prior and H850
temperatures are forecast to be around 20 Celsius by peak heating
on Friday afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s
across the region with some locations potentially in the upper
70s. Precipitation from the morning should dissipate or move off
to the east before another band moves in from the west during the
evening hours. Model guidance deviates on the location of the
better precipitation bands, but the highest chances for
precipitation will be across the central and west through Saturday
morning.

Not much change is currently expected Saturday through the middle
of next week. The northwest flow aloft will continue to allow
shortwaves to move across the region and with moisture continuing
to be in place, showers and storms should be able to develop
across portions of the area each day. Additionally, this flow will
not be the most conducive for temperatures to reach the triple
digit mark, so highs in the 80s and 90s are expected this weekend
through early next week.


Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals. Winds around 10 kts
out of mainly the south to southeast are forecast at the sites
until a cold front moves down the Plains tonight. Winds behind the
front will switch to out of the north with gusts upwards of 25 to
30 kts. Rain showers will continue today at KAMA for a few hours.
Additional showers or storms are possible at KDHT/KGUY after 00z,
confidence is not high enough to mention at KDHT, but have
included VCTS at KGUY for best timing.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                71  92  65  84 /  10  10  50  30
Beaver OK                  66  87  61  86 /  40   0  20  10
Boise City OK              61  84  57  82 /  50   0  30  20
Borger TX                  73  95  66  89 /  20   0  40  30
Boys Ranch TX              69  92  64  85 /  20   0  50  30
Canyon TX                  71  92  64  82 /  10  10  50  40
Clarendon TX               74  96  66  83 /  10  10  40  30
Dalhart TX                 63  88  59  82 /  30   0  40  20
Guymon OK                  64  87  60  84 /  50   0  30  20
Hereford TX                71  94  65  84 /  10  10  50  30
Lipscomb TX                70  91  63  86 /  20   0  30  10
Pampa TX                   71  92  65  84 /  20  10  40  30
Shamrock TX                74  99  67  87 /  10  20  40  30
Wellington TX              76 100  68  88 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05