148
FXUS64 KAMA 030749
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
249 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The cold front that made it through the southern Texas Panhandle
earlier tonight is expected to stall and dissipate today.  This will
allow southerly moist low level flow to move back across the
Panhandles today.  This moisture coupled with a couple of
disturbances aloft should be enough to continue to fire showers and
thunderstorms through tonight. Some of the storms may become severe
with damaging winds the main threat.  However, a hailstone to the
size of a half dollar would not be out of the question.

On the 4th of July, a stronger cold front is expected to move
through the Panhandles during the late morning and afternoon.  Some
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the southeast
Texas Panhandle in the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the
front.  Shower and thunderstorm development is expected to increase
after midnight of the 4th into the 5th as an upper level disturbance
approaches in the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The northwest flow aloft is expected to continue through Tuesday of
next week with a high centered over California and Nevada and a
trough centered over the Great Lakes.  This flow coupled with weak
disturbances will continue to bring daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the Panhandles.  The northwest flow will also usher
in another cold front on Sunday.  High temperatures are expected to
generally remain below normal from Friday through next Tuesday.
However, Sunday could be just a tad above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
affect parts of the region the rest of tonight. Have enough
confidence to include TSRA at KGUY and VCSH at both KDHT and KAMA
early in this forecast cycle. Timing of any storms impacting the
terminal sites may need to be adjusted as necessary based on
latest radar trends. Finally, additional showers and thunderstorms
may develop Wednesday. Confidence is low on location and occurrence
so have omitted mention at this time.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                90  70  93  65 /  50  20  10  50
Beaver OK                  85  67  87  61 /  60  30  10  30
Boise City OK              85  62  84  58 /  50  30   0  40
Borger TX                  92  72  95  65 /  40  30  10  50
Boys Ranch TX              91  67  93  63 /  30  30   0  50
Canyon TX                  90  69  93  63 /  40  20  10  50
Clarendon TX               94  72  96  65 /  30  20  20  40
Dalhart TX                 88  63  88  59 /  30  30   0  40
Guymon OK                  86  64  86  59 /  50  30   0  40
Hereford TX                92  70  95  65 /  40  20  10  50
Lipscomb TX                87  70  91  63 /  50  20  10  30
Pampa TX                   89  70  92  63 /  40  40  10  50
Shamrock TX                96  74  99  66 /  40  20  20  40
Wellington TX              99  76 100  68 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...02