454
FXUS64 KAMA 061954
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
254 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Warmer temperatures are forecast across the area compared to
yesterday. 80`s and lower 90`s can be expected as 850 mb reside
in the upper 20`s (degrees Celsius) and cloud coverage should not
impose on day time heating this afternoon. Instead, coverage
should steadily increase towards the evening hours. Tomorrow, a
cold front will surge through the area from the north. Additional
cloud coverage and perhaps some precipitation chances will
restrict the northern Panhandles from warming up to the 90`s.
Instead, upper 70`s and 80`s are foreseen. Further south, 90
degree temperatures may still be met thanks to the timing of the
front. It may not pass through the whole CWA until the night time
hours; but of course, a faster frontal progression will lead to
lower day time highs overall.

A field of cumulus has generated over central portions of the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Tonight a disturbance from the
Rocky Mountain range in Colorado will advance southeast into our
area. The best environment and source of lift favors the Oklahoma
Panhandle and far northern portions of the Texas Panhandle. So
thunderstorm, some strong to severe, are possible ahead of the
boundary in the late evening hours and overnight period today.
Tomorrow, additional storms are expected to form in the eastern
Panhandles ahead of the incoming cold front. Severe storms are
possible again, with damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or
two are the primary hazards. If convection can become more
widespread as opposed to isolated the tornado threat would
decrease, but the flash flooding potential would raise instead.
Finally, as Sunday night become Monday morning, another band of
showers should develop behind the main cold front and showers with
isolated storms will be possible for the central and eastern
zones of the CWA and last through Monday morning.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Residual showers and thunderstorms in the wake of the cold front
should move south throughout the first half of Monday before H500
NW flow returns to the region at the base of the mid level trough
as seen by the latest 06/12Z model and numerical guidance. The
main trough axis should reach the Red River valley of north
central Texas by Monday night. This should help to steer what is
left of now Hurricane Beryl downstream of the trough axis and into
northeast Texas. For the Panhandles, some high clouds from the
remnant tropical system may reach our region, but thats about it.

Tuesday through the remainder of the long term forecast period,
the main H500 quasi-stationary high pressure system over the Great
Basin in the western CONUS, NW flow with diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms are possible, favoring the central and western
Panhandles each day. Towards the end of the forecast period, H500
flow should become quite anemic with the main high shifting NE of
the Four Corners Region according to the latest guidance. This
should limit our precipitation chances. High temperatures to start
will be well below average and then rise back to above average by
the end of the forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

TAFs are VFR for the 18Z period. Confidence in thunderstorms at
the GUY site has diminished some, so no mentions can be made at
this time. However, if the situation changes, and the dynamics
become more favorable for thunderstorms and the GUY and even AMA
terminals, amendments could become necessary. Generally breezy
winds from the southwest will be had at all sites for the next 24
hours.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  92  63  77 /  20  20  50  50
Beaver OK                  62  79  60  79 /  40  30  50  30
Boise City OK              59  80  57  78 /  20  10  40  30
Borger TX                  70  92  65  83 /  10  30  60  50
Boys Ranch TX              67  92  63  80 /  20  10  50  40
Canyon TX                  66  94  61  76 /  20  10  50  60
Clarendon TX               67  97  63  77 /  20  40  60  60
Dalhart TX                 62  85  58  79 /  10  10  40  30
Guymon OK                  61  81  58  79 /  20  20  50  30
Hereford TX                67  94  63  77 /  20  10  40  50
Lipscomb TX                67  85  62  81 /  30  50  70  40
Pampa TX                   67  91  62  78 /  10  40  60  60
Shamrock TX                69  96  63  80 /  10  50  70  60
Wellington TX              70  99  64  81 /  10  50  70  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...55