930
FXUS64 KAMA 040800
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
300 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A cold front moving southward at about 30 mph will move into the
northwest Oklahoma Panhandle by around sunrise and then it should
exit the southeast Texas Panhandle by early afternoon.  Any showers
and thunderstorms that may occur with the front will be in the far
southeast Texas Panhandle and these will likely be behind the front
early this evening as storms that develop over the Low Rolling
Plains will move northeast and clip our far southeast corner. Really
think that the front will clear the area and any severe
thunderstorms will be southeast of our area along and southeast of
the front.  But if a robust storm can develop in our area, then
damaging winds will be the main threat.  North winds will be breezy
behind the front with speeds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

Low level moisture is expected to surge back north late tonight to
help produce showers and thunderstorms after midnight, mainly across
the southern Texas Panhandle.  We will see if this can happen.  If
the front goes much farther south than the models have it, then the
chances of getting enough moisture back for showers and
thunderstorms will be lower.

Winds turn more southeasterly on Friday and this should help low
level moisture to move back across the region.  This moisture
coupled with an upper level short wave trough moving southeast
across the Panhandles may enough of a trigger to bring showers and
thunderstorms to the western halves of the Panhandles.

Highs today will range from the lower 80`s in the northwest to
around 100 degrees in the far southeast.  Highs on Friday are
expected to range from the lower 80`s in the far west to the upper
80`s in the southeast TExas Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Active weather looks to remain possible as we head into the
holiday weekend thanks to a strong upper-level high building over
the Great Basin. Initially models expect this high will stay just
east of the Panhandle, which will shift our flow to a more
northwesterly direction for Saturday and Sunday. Generally this
flow is ideal for storms coming off the southern Rockies to move
across the Panhandles during the afternoon and evening time. In
addition to this, having northwesterly flow also makes it easier
for the expected short-wave troughs to move across the area and
provide extra insatiability for storms. As it stands, Saturday has
one of the better chances for activity, with models seeing the
first of these short-waves move across that afternoon.

However, this activity may not last as long as the latest NBM
suggests. Last runs for the GFS and ECMWF dare currently seeing
the 500mb high grow even stronger once we get into the new week
with potential to expand outward as we head into the middle of
next week. Should this growth come to pass, then it is possible
that flow will be more northerly than northwesterly as the
Panhandles start to fall under the upper-level high pressure
system. Once that occurs it will be much hard for short-waves to
move across the Panhandles as well as introduce much drier air at
the upper- level that all but cap the area and keep us dry. This
growth in the upper-level high, would also change temperature
outlooks for the week with many locations potentially moving
closer to the triple digits rather than the projected 80s and 90s.

Regardless, there is still not enough confidence to really go
against the current active pattern that NBM is suggesting as this
growth has only been seen in the last few runs. For now, look for
showers and thunderstorm to be a possibility clear into next
weekend with cooler temperatures following the second week of
July.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, the latest round of showers and thunderstorms
is moving east of the terminal sites and have opted not to include
mention. Based on latest numerical weather model guidance, it
appears the TAF sites will remain dry through Independence Day and
this has been reflected in the latest forecast. A cold front will
track across the region this morning with gusty north winds in its
wake before wind speeds diminish by around late afternoon

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                91  63  84  62 /   0  50  30  30
Beaver OK                  86  63  85  62 /   0  20   0  10
Boise City OK              83  58  82  57 /   0  30  10  30
Borger TX                  94  65  89  64 /   0  40  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              92  62  85  62 /   0  50  20  30
Canyon TX                  91  62  82  59 /  10  50  30  30
Clarendon TX               94  65  83  62 /  10  40  30  20
Dalhart TX                 87  58  83  58 /   0  30  10  30
Guymon OK                  85  60  85  58 /   0  30  10  20
Hereford TX                93  63  84  61 /   0  50  30  40
Lipscomb TX                89  64  87  63 /   0  30  10  10
Pampa TX                   90  63  85  62 /   0  40  20  20
Shamrock TX                98  66  87  63 /  10  40  30  10
Wellington TX             100  67  88  64 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...02