Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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947 FXUS64 KAMA 010804 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 304 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The start of this holiday work week is still on schedule to start hot, but maybe not as dry as originally expected. Currently models are still in agreement that the 500mb high pressure system to our east will slowly build back over the Panhandles today. However, the main center of this high is expected to be just to our east. The placement of the center will allow for good southwesterly flow to move across the lower and mid-levels which will allow for decent warm air to flow over the Panhandles. With the warm air in place, look for temperatures to rise further with most locations in the 90s to triples digits. Some of our hotter locations, like the Palo Duro Canyon, will also have to be monitored for the day as they have to potential to be just shy of the Heat Advisory criteria. On the other side of this however, the just eastward placement of the upper-level high has also open the door for storms to form in the late afternoon and evening time frame for the Western Panhandles. At this time, the latest CAMs are suggesting that most of these storms will likely form off the mountains to our west in New Mexico and drift into our area with the southwesterly flow. Potential for severe is not the best, with most models suggesting less than 1000 MLCAPE over the area and DCAPE not that great either. Still a isolated strong to severe storm could happen, but expect the window to be brief with many models seeing more shower like set up that dwindles as we head into the overnight. Heading into Tuesday, model agreement is still projecting for Tuesday to be our hottest day of the week with many locations peaking near or above triple digits for the day. Potential is present for Heat Advisories for that afternnon, especially in the Palo Duro Canyon where temperatures could easily reach 105 degrees. However up in the north, these temperature may not come to be if the expected cold front arrives early. Currently most model are on the side of seeing the Panhandles reach peak heating with many not see the upper-level trough and the front arrive till around 22 to 23 Z. However once it does begin to reach into our area, look for chances for showers and thunderstorms to increase as this trough is expected to shift flow and bring back good pockets of moisture on both sides of the front. As for severe potential, most models are seeing better chances than Monday, especially in the North Eastern Panhandles. As it stands, potential is present in the northeast to see pockets of 2000 to 3000 MLCAPE in the north east with effective bulk shear getting above 40 kt. The latest model runs do not have very good 0 to 1 or 0 to 3 shear present which makes potential for a tornado very low, but given how strong the shift in direction is along the frontal boundary a quick spin-up can not be ruled out on any storm moving along it. Otherwise, secondary threat may turn to flooding with PWATS rising upwards of 1.75 inches across a good portion of the Panhandle. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A cold front may stall in the Panhandles on Wednesday, and this feature will likely be a focus for showers and thunderstorms. A stronger cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles Thursday afternoon. At this time, the front is not expected to arrive fast enough to keep the 100`s away from the southern Texas Panhandle, but the Oklahoma Panhandle and the far northern Texas Panhandle may be spared the 100`s. This front, depending on how fast it moves will also be a focus for showers and thunderstorms. On Friday, the surface flow turns more to the east and this upslope flow coupled with a northwest flow aloft should help to support a round of showers and thunderstorms moving this way from the mountains. The only fly in the ointment, may the amount of available instability and moisture in the post-frontal airmass. Saturday and Sunday we should see more rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving this way from the mountains under a northwest flow aloft. High temperatures may stay in the 80`s on Friday, but will be right back above normal by Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Surface winds look to less during this overnight period with all terminal seeing speed down around 10 to 15 kt. Winds do look to eventually pick back up tomorrow thanks to a 850mb jet overhead. KGUY will be the first to see this increase with gust upwards of 30 kt possible at the terminals by the afternoon. Chances of showers and thunderstorms also are present tomorrow evening with KDHT having the best chances of any impacts. However, confidence is too low for any mention at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold through the overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 97 75 101 72 / 0 10 10 40 Beaver OK 99 77 99 68 / 0 10 20 50 Boise City OK 94 69 94 64 / 20 30 20 40 Borger TX 102 79 106 73 / 0 10 20 50 Boys Ranch TX 99 75 102 70 / 10 10 20 40 Canyon TX 96 73 99 71 / 0 10 10 40 Clarendon TX 97 75 101 73 / 0 0 10 20 Dalhart TX 97 70 98 66 / 10 10 20 40 Guymon OK 98 73 97 67 / 0 20 20 50 Hereford TX 98 73 101 71 / 0 10 10 30 Lipscomb TX 99 77 102 70 / 0 0 10 50 Pampa TX 97 76 101 71 / 0 0 20 40 Shamrock TX 99 77 103 75 / 0 0 10 20 Wellington TX 100 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...11