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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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658 FXUS64 KAMA 041803 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 103 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A cold front moving southward at about 30 mph will move into the northwest Oklahoma Panhandle by around sunrise and then it should exit the southeast Texas Panhandle by early afternoon. Any showers and thunderstorms that may occur with the front will be in the far southeast Texas Panhandle and these will likely be behind the front early this evening as storms that develop over the Low Rolling Plains will move northeast and clip our far southeast corner. Really think that the front will clear the area and any severe thunderstorms will be southeast of our area along and southeast of the front. But if a robust storm can develop in our area, then damaging winds will be the main threat. North winds will be breezy behind the front with speeds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. Low level moisture is expected to surge back north late tonight to help produce showers and thunderstorms after midnight, mainly across the southern Texas Panhandle. We will see if this can happen. If the front goes much farther south than the models have it, then the chances of getting enough moisture back for showers and thunderstorms will be lower. Winds turn more southeasterly on Friday and this should help low level moisture to move back across the region. This moisture coupled with an upper level short wave trough moving southeast across the Panhandles may enough of a trigger to bring showers and thunderstorms to the western halves of the Panhandles. Highs today will range from the lower 80`s in the northwest to around 100 degrees in the far southeast. Highs on Friday are expected to range from the lower 80`s in the far west to the upper 80`s in the southeast TExas Panhandle. && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Active weather looks to remain possible as we head into the holiday weekend thanks to a strong upper-level high building over the Great Basin. Initially models expect this high will stay just east of the Panhandle, which will shift our flow to a more northwesterly direction for Saturday and Sunday. Generally this flow is ideal for storms coming off the southern Rockies to move across the Panhandles during the afternoon and evening time. In addition to this, having northwesterly flow also makes it easier for the expected short-wave troughs to move across the area and provide extra insatiability for storms. As it stands, Saturday has one of the better chances for activity, with models seeing the first of these short-waves move across that afternoon. However, this activity may not last as long as the latest NBM suggests. Last runs for the GFS and ECMWF dare currently seeing the 500mb high grow even stronger once we get into the new week with potential to expand outward as we head into the middle of next week. Should this growth come to pass, then it is possible that flow will be more northerly than northwesterly as the Panhandles start to fall under the upper-level high pressure system. Once that occurs it will be much hard for short-waves to move across the Panhandles as well as introduce much drier air at the upper- level that all but cap the area and keep us dry. This growth in the upper-level high, would also change temperature outlooks for the week with many locations potentially moving closer to the triple digits rather than the projected 80s and 90s. Regardless, there is still not enough confidence to really go against the current active pattern that NBM is suggesting as this growth has only been seen in the last few runs. For now, look for showers and thunderstorm to be a possibility clear into next weekend with cooler temperatures following the second week of July. Scoleri && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 TAFs are VFR for the onset of the period. Later tonight, likely after the midnight hour, showers and thunderstorms may impact all TAF sites and continue through the morning hours. PROB30 groups have been introduced for all sites, with varying times of their arrival. Low clouds may impact AMA around 09Z alongside the potential precipitation. MVFR conditions are progged to last until the end of the period at this time. Breezy, northerly winds continue at all terminals through the afternoon and evening today, while slowly veering northeast. Eventually, those conditions will die down by the night time hours and winds should remain light through the rest of the period. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 63 84 62 89 / 50 50 30 30 Beaver OK 63 85 62 90 / 30 20 10 20 Boise City OK 58 82 57 89 / 50 20 30 30 Borger TX 65 89 64 94 / 50 50 30 30 Boys Ranch TX 62 85 62 93 / 50 50 40 30 Canyon TX 62 82 59 89 / 50 50 40 30 Clarendon TX 65 83 62 88 / 50 50 20 30 Dalhart TX 58 83 58 91 / 50 40 40 30 Guymon OK 60 85 58 90 / 50 50 30 30 Hereford TX 63 84 61 91 / 50 50 40 30 Lipscomb TX 64 87 63 91 / 40 40 10 20 Pampa TX 63 85 62 89 / 50 50 20 30 Shamrock TX 66 87 63 91 / 50 50 10 20 Wellington TX 67 88 64 92 / 40 50 20 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...55