313
FXUS61 KALY 040228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1028 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers or an isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight
with a weak cold front. Increased heat and humidity along with
some scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for
Independence Day. Another warm front will result in the return
of seasonably hot and humid conditions Friday with additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.Update...As of 10:30 PM EDT...Pre-frontal trough approaching
from the west has resulted in a few light showers making their
way into northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties, although the
more numerous batch of showers remains off to the west and just
west of the Tug Hill. Still expecting these showers and perhaps
a few rumbles of thunder to track southeastwards over our area
later tonight, although with just a few pockets of elevated
instability we are not concerned about any severe/flood threat.
Otherwise, minor adjustments to temperatures across some of the
sheltered areas of the Catskills and southern Taconics where
decreasing winds have allowed for temperatures to drop into the
low to mid 60s where skies have become clear. Valley areas
remain warmer, with southerly winds of 5-10 kt keeping the
boundary layer more mixed. Temperatures will drop a few more
degrees from current levels, but with increasing clouds most
areas will only see lows in the 60s and it will be more muggy
than previous nights. All that said, previous forecast remains
in good shape with more details below...

.Previous...A prefrontal trough and weak cold front will
approach the region this evening and track to the southeast
across the region tonight into tomorrow morning. As showers
approach the western Mohawk Valley and southwestern Adirondacks
this evening, there may be enough remaining diurnal instability
to support isolated thunderstorms, but convection will decrease
as the shower activity moves away from upper-level forcing and
into an increasingly stable nocturnal airmass. Rain showers will
otherwise extend south and east through the morning. Overnight
lows will remain very mild in the 60s west of the Hudson due to
the enhanced humidity and cloud cover, while slightly cooler
conditions in the upper 50s to low 60s are expected in western
New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to sag to the south and east across
the region through Independence Day. Isolated to scattered
showers will continue through the morning, while resurgent
diurnal instability of up to 500 J/kg will support a threat for
isolated thunderstorms, particularly from Albany south, into the
evening. Limited shear should prevent thunderstorms from
becoming severe, however abundant moisture will allow any storm
to produce a brief, heavy downpour. As such, a shower or
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for any evening
festivities. North of I-90, conditions will be drier. Another
day of typical summer-like temperatures is expected with highs
in the mid 70s to low 80s in high terrain and 80 at lower
elevations. Surface dewpoints rising into the 60s to near 70
degrees may make for a muggy evening, with heat indices
reaching around 90 degrees along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys.

The front will begin to stall near or just south of the region
tonight into Friday, bringing continued mild and muggy overnight
conditions. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s in high
terrain, but remain in the mid to upper 60s at lower elevations.
A deepening surface low tracking northeastward over the Great
Lakes will lift the frontal boundary back across the region
Friday into Friday night, yielding additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain seasonably
warm to hot, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in
high terrain and mid 80s to around 90 degrees at lower
elevations. Elevated humidity will allow heat indices to rise
into the low 90s within hotter valley locales. Mild and muggy
conditions continue overnight with lows in the low 60s to low
70s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Saturday, an upper-level shortwave and associated frontal
system centered over the Great Lakes will track into southern
Quebec while its trailing cold front approaches the local region
from the west. Within the warm sector, a warm to hot airmass
with elevated humidity will persist over the region while also
supporting modest instability. Temperatures will remain above
normal, reaching afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in
high terrain and mid to upper 80s at lower elevations, with
muggy dewpoints in the 60s to 70s across the region. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
into the afternoon, while there remains uncertainty in the
potential for severe storms at this lead time.

The cold frontal passage will fail to bring much in the way of
cooling, although dewpoints will decrease into the 50s and 60s
by Sunday. Overnight conditions remain mild and muggy each of
Sunday night through Tuesday nights, with temperatures stuck in
the upper 50s to near 70s degrees across the region. Sunday will
see slightly cooler temperatures, as afternoon highs fall to
the upper 60s to mid 70s in high terrain and upper 70s to near
90 degrees at lower elevations, but temperatures will rebound
back into the mid 70s to low 90s across the region Monday
through Wednesday afternoons.

Surface high pressure developing beneath the upstream flank of
the upper ridge will allow for drier weather Sunday and Monday,
while another upper shortwave drops south over the Great Lakes
late in the period. This next frontal system looks to track into
the region Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the next chances for
widespread precipitation to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thru 12z Thursday...All terminals currently seeing VFR
conditions, which should continue through most of tonight. As we
head towards daybreak, a few showers will move in from the west.
Mainly VFR cigs expected, although MVFR vsbys possible with any
showers. Used VCSH and prob 30 groups to indicate possibility
for showers.

Showers generally end by around mid-morning, with a return to
prevailing VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF
period at ALB/GFL with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds. At POU and
PSF, any morning showers dissipate, but then by mid to late
afternoon additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop. Have included additional VCSH and prob 30 groups at
these sites to highlight the chance for an afternoon shower or
storm. Any showers/storms will likely be relatively brief in
nature but could lead to a short period of MVFR to IFR vsbys.

Winds will remain out of the south through the TAF period. Winds
will be at around 10 kt to start the TAF period with some gusts
up to around 20 KT at ALB, but gusts diminish by midnight with
winds trending towards the 5-10 kt range at all terminals for
the remainder of the overnight period. Winds increase slightly
tomorrow morning, but generally remain at 5-10 kt through most
of the day before they weaken during the last couple hours of
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main/Picard
NEAR TERM...Main/Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Main