![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
581 FXUS61 KALY 021950 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 350 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift away from the region tonight as clouds increase ahead of an approaching warm front, with warm to hot temperatures returning and continuing through Independence Day. Chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive with a weak cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday, before another system brings more widespread chances for rain and thunder Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... High pressure overhead will slide to the southeast as a warm front extending east from a system over the Midwest approaches, bringing increased mid to high cloud coverage through tonight. Beneath 850 hPa temperatures of 12-14C this afternoon, highs are expected to be near normal in the 70s in high terrain and upper 70s to mid 80s at lower elevations. Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s will additionally make for a very pleasant early July day. Increased clouds will stymie efficient radiative cooling tonight, yielding lows in the 50s for most and near 60 degrees along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys. A weak surface pressure gradient will see light winds continue through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A warm front will lift across the region Wednesday. Despite the surface low remaining fairly far to the north and west, the tightening pressure gradient will yield breezy southerly flow. Mid-level southwesterly flow will aid in lifting temperatures a few degrees warmer than Tuesday, resulting in afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in high terrain and mid to upper 80s at lower elevations Wednesday. The weakening cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday evening, tracking across the region overnight. As showers move into the area, nocturnal stabilization of the air mass will see coverage decrease. A few isolated thunderstorms may still reach into the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley through the evening. Overnight lows will remain mild, largely in the 60s across the region. Independence Day will feature warm to hot temperatures with increased humidity as dewpoints reach into the mid 60s to low 70s at low elevations. Afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in high terrain and mid to upper 80s at lower elevations will result in heat indices exceeding 90 degrees within the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, but heat advisories are not anticipated at this point. Showers may linger into the morning as the cold front continues to track southeastward while diurnal heating south of the boundary may allow for enough destabilization to yield a few additional thunderstorms through the afternoon, especially south of Albany. Much of the shower activity should end by the evening, however a few stray showers may persist into the overnight period. Lows Thursday night remain mild, in the upper 50s to upper 60s across the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The period starts on Fri with a cyclone tracking east across the Midwest, with a warm front extending south/east from the cyclone into the mid Atlantic region. There will already be a warm air mass in place, with increasing moisture south of the front. It may get close enough to produce isolated to widely scattered showers/T- storms Fri afternoon/evening, mainly south of Albany. It will be very warm with highs approaching 90F in the Hudson Valley. The warm front lifts north across the area Fri night bringing scattered showers/T-storms. Sat looks warm and increasingly humid in the warm sector, but cloud cover may limit temperatures. Dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 70s in lower elevations. The aforementioned cyclone is expected to track across northern portions of the Great Lakes to near the Ontario/Quebec border, with a trailing cold front pushing east across our area Sat afternoon into Sat evening. Given increased forcing, there will be scattered to numerous showers/T-storms during this time. Given sufficient instability/shear, there could be some strong to severe storms. Will continue to monitor trends. The "cold" front will be east of the region on Sunday, with the air mass behind it similarly warm but somewhat less humid. Mainly dry conditions are expected with weak high pressure building in, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will continue to be above normal on Mon. With high pressure in place, it should be dry again outside of an isolated diurnally driven shower. Increasing chances for showers/T-storms arrive on Tue, as an upper level trough and associated surface fronts approach from the west. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Persistent high pressure will see continued VFR conditions at all terminals throughout the TAF period. Few-sct diurnal cu at 4-6 kft will increase in coverage through the afternoon, particularly in areas of higher terrain. A system tracking well to the west of the region will see a warm front approach, bringing increased high clouds at 20-25 kft through the afternoon and overnight. Diurnal cu at 4-6 kft returns after 12-15Z Wed while mid to upper levels clouds at 15-20 kft continue. Light winds at 5 kt or less continue across the region through this evening, with calm to light and variable flow expected overnight. Winds increase out of the south through Wednesday morning to 8-12 kt, with gusts of 15-20 kt possible toward the end of the period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard NEAR TERM...Picard SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...Picard