059
FXUS61 KALY 030522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
122 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure positioned to our east will bring another warm
and dry day across the region with comfortable humidity levels.
A weak cold front will cross the region tonight through
Independence Day with an increase in humidity along with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. An area of low
pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will keep warm and
humid conditions across the region Friday into the weekend with
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure has shifted to the east as high clouds spread
across the region ahead of an approaching warm front. These
clouds have resulted in a variation in surface temperatures
across the region based on their scattered/broken nature. Most
areas will start the day in the 50s to lower 60s. Any fog that
does develop by daybreak looks to be fairly isolated.

The warm front will lift northward across our area on Wednesday,
but the surface high off to our east combined with upper level
ridging overhead will maintain warm and dry weather with
humidity levels remaining low. Highs will be similar to Tuesday
except perhaps a degree or two warmer with low to mid-80s in the
valleys and upper 70s to around 80 in the higher elevations,
still right around climatological normals for early July. A
southerly breeze will pick up by the afternoon hours with a few
gusts 20 to 30 mph expected.

A prefrontal trough and weak cold front will begin to cross the
state Wednesday night. Some showers and embedded thunderstorms
will approach western areas around midnight and track farther
eastward toward daybreak. Instability will be fairly low with
MUCAPE values generally less than 100 J/kg. With the main
forcing remaining well to the north and west, this activity
should decrease in intensity and coverage with eastward extend.
As a result, only looking at isolated to scattered showers with
perhaps a rumble of thunder reaching the Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley. The extra clouds and light southerly
wind will keep temperatures mainly in the 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Independence Day will feature warm to hot temperatures with
increased humidity as dewpoints reach into the mid 60s to low
70s at low elevations. Afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s
in high terrain and mid to upper 80s at lower elevations will
result in heat indices exceeding 90 degrees within the Hudson
and Mohawk Valleys, but heat advisories are not anticipated at
this point. Showers may linger into the morning as the cold
front continues to track southeastward while diurnal heating
south of the boundary may allow for enough destabilization to
yield a few additional thunderstorms through the afternoon,
especially south of Albany. Much of the shower activity should
end by the evening, however a few stray showers may persist into
the overnight period. Lows Thursday night remain mild, in the
upper 50s to upper 60s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The period starts on Fri with a cyclone tracking east across the
Midwest, with a warm front extending south/east from the cyclone
into the mid Atlantic region. There will already be a warm air
mass in place, with increasing moisture south of the front. It
may get close enough to produce isolated to widely scattered
showers/T- storms Fri afternoon/evening, mainly south of Albany.
It will be very warm with highs approaching 90F in the Hudson
Valley.

The warm front lifts north across the area Fri night bringing
scattered showers/T-storms. Sat looks warm and increasingly
humid in the warm sector, but cloud cover may limit
temperatures. Dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 70s in
lower elevations. The aforementioned cyclone is expected to
track across northern portions of the Great Lakes to near the
Ontario/Quebec border, with a trailing cold front pushing east
across our area Sat afternoon into Sat evening. Given increased
forcing, there will be scattered to numerous showers/T-storms
during this time. Given sufficient instability/shear, there
could be some strong to severe storms. Will continue to monitor
trends.

The "cold" front will be east of the region on Sunday, with the
air mass behind it similarly warm but somewhat less humid.
Mainly dry conditions are expected with weak high pressure
building in, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal on Mon. With high
pressure in place, it should be dry again outside of an isolated
diurnally driven shower. Increasing chances for
showers/T-storms arrive on Tue, as an upper level trough and
associated surface fronts approach from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flying conditions are VFR for all sites with sct-bkn high level
clouds in place. These high level cirrus clouds will continue to
remain in place through the overnight hours. There is a low
t/td spread in place and calm winds, which would be favorable
for radiational fog. However, the high clouds in place may
prevent this from occurring. A brief period of fog may occur at
KGFL around daybreak based on the local terrain, otherwise, the
short duration of the overnight and passing clouds should help
prevent any fog at the other sites, with continued VFR
conditions.

Through the day on Wednesday, flying conditions will be VFR for
all sites with no precip. There will be some periods of mid and
high level clouds through the day. Some diurnal cu will develop
in the afternoon as well. Clouds will continue to thicken and
lower on Wednesday evening. While the first part of Wednesday
night should be dry, a stray shower can`t be ruled out by the
second half of the overnight.

Southerly winds will pick up during the day on Wednesday to
around 10 kts. Some higher gusts are possible, especially at
KALB. Winds will decrease somewhat on Wednesday night, but will
still be 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis