051
FXUS61 KALY 031825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
225 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather continues through today before a weak cold
front brings increased humidity and isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms for Independence Day. Another warm
front will see seasonably hot and humid conditions return Friday
with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm front lifting across the region brought enhanced clouds
earlier today, but skies have largely cleared this afternoon
aside from some diurnal cumulus over areas of higher terrain and
a few bands of mid to high level clouds dissipating as they exit
eastward into New England. Surface high pressure located to the
southeast has resulted in gusty south winds, particularly along
the Hudson Valley and at higher elevations, where gusts may
reach 20-30 mph.

Southwesterly mid-level flow will push 850-hPa temperatures to
nearly 15C today, allowing afternoon highs to rise a couple
degrees warmer than yesterday, into the mid to upper 70s in
high terrain and low to mid 80s at lower elevations. Surface
dewpoints largely in the 50s across the region will make for
another pleasant-feeling early summer day.

A prefrontal trough and weak cold front will approach the region
this evening and track to the southeast across the region
tonight into tomorrow morning. As showers approach the western
Mohawk Valley and southwestern Adirondacks this evening, there
may be enough remaining diurnal instability to support isolated
thunderstorms, but convection will decrease as the shower
activity moves away from upper-level forcing and into an
increasingly stable nocturnal airmass. Rain showers will
otherwise extend south and east through the morning. Overnight
lows will remain very mild in the 60s west of the Hudson due to
the enhanced humidity and cloud cover, while slightly cooler
conditions in the upper 50s to low 60s are expected in western
New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to sag to the south and east across
the region through Independence Day. Isolated to scattered
showers will continue through the morning, while resurgent
diurnal instability of up to 500 J/kg will support a threat for
isolated thunderstorms, particularly from Albany south, into the
evening. Limited shear should prevent thunderstorms from
becoming severe, however abundant moisture will allow any storm
to produce a brief, heavy downpour. As such, a shower or
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for any evening
festivities. North of I-90, conditions will be drier. Another
day of typical summer-like temperatures is expected with highs
in the mid 70s to low 80s in high terrain and 80 at lower
elevations. Surface dewpoints rising into the 60s to near 70
degrees may make for a muggy evening, with heat indices
reaching around 90 degrees along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys.

The front will begin to stall near or just south of the region
tonight into Friday, bringing continued mild and muggy overnight
conditions. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s in high
terrain, but remain in the mid to upper 60s at lower elevations.
A deepening surface low tracking northeastward over the Great
Lakes will lift the frontal boundary back across the region
Friday into Friday night, yielding additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain seasonably
warm to hot, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in
high terrain and mid 80s to around 90 degrees at lower
elevations. Elevated humidity will allow heat indices to rise
into the low 90s within hotter valley locales. Mild and muggy
conditions continue overnight with lows in the low 60s to low
70s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will be moving from the northern
Great Lakes across Ontario and Quebec on Saturday. At the
surface, a frontal boundary will be approaching our area from
the west. Our region should be within the storm`s warm sector,
allowing for a warm and humid air mass to be in place. Models
suggest sufficient instability will be in place to allow for a
decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday,
especially for the afternoon hours and for areas closer to the
upper level forcing (areas north of west of the Capital Region).
Will go with likely POPs over much of the area on Saturday,
although it won`t be a wash out by any means and some areas
could stay dry. Dewpoints look rather muggy in the 70s. With the
warm/humid air mass and nearby upper level dynamics, there
could be some stronger storms around, although the coverage of
strong storms is still in question. Although clouds may limit
some of the heating, most areas should reach well into the 80s
on Saturday.

Behind the surface front, temps only cool slightly, and temps
aloft should recover rather quickly. While Sunday looks rain-
free for most of the area, it still be warm with highs and in
the 80s and dewpoints (while lower than Saturday) will still be
muggy in the mid to upper 60s. A stray shower is possible for
northern areas, but Sunday definitely looks like the more rain-
free day of the weekend.

High pressure should allow for another rain-free day on Monday
as well. Temps still look above normal with highs well into the
80s and muggy dewpoints in the 60s. The next disturbance looks
to arrive by Tuesday, with another round of diurnally- forced
convection in the afternoon and evening hours. It will continue
to be rather warm and sticky with above normal temps in the mid
to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thru 18Z THU...A warm front will bring increasing and lowering
clouds late this afternoon into tonight. Conditions should stay
VFR prior to 12Z/THU. Mid and high clouds will increase tonight
and lower. Expect bases to be 6-10 kft AGL between 08Z-12Z/THU
with a few light showers approaching. We placed VCSH groups or
PROB30s in for all the TAF sites especially for KALB 08Z-12Z/THU
and PSF for 13Z-17Z/THU. Some reduction to high MVFR cigs are
possible with cigs 2-3 kft AGL. Some light showers or spotty
drizzle may linger in the morning.

The winds will be southeast to south at 8-15 KT this afternoon with
some gusts 20-25 KT especially at KALB/KPSF. The winds will
continue from the south at 5-10 KT tonight through tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Through the day today, flying conditions will be VFR with no
precip. A batch of mid and high level clouds will pass over the
area this morning, resulting in bkn cigs around 15-20 kft. Calm
winds early this morning will become southerly and increase to
around 10 kts by the late morning for all sites. A few higher
gusts are possible at times as well. There may be some more
breaks in the clouds by this afternoon with continued VFR
conditions and some diurnal cu will develop in the afternoon as
well.

As the next frontal system approaches, mid level clouds will
lower and thicken this evening. While the first part of tonight
should be dry, a stray shower can`t be ruled out by the second
half of the overnight. Will just mention a VCSH for now since
coverage is still looking fairly isolated to scattered with bkn
cigs around 3500-7000 ft expected by later in the overnight
hours. Winds will decrease somewhat tonight, but will still be 5
to 10 kts for all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula