658
FXUS61 KALY 021330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
930 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring warm and dry weather through Wednesday
with comfortable humidity levels. A weak cold front will bring
an increase in humidity along with some showers and possible
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Independence Day. Another low
pressure system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms
Friday into Saturday with very warm and humid conditions
continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 0930 AM EDT, despite clear skies, cool
temperatures have lingered, particularly in higher terrain
areas, and have therefore adjusted temperatures and dewpoints to
reflect latest regional ASOS and NYS Mesonet observations.
Forecast otherwise remains on track; see previous discussion
below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0630 AM EDT]...High pressure will build
overhead through the day resulting in mostly clear and dry
weather along with comfortable humidity levels. After a cool
start with many areas starting out in the mid-40s to mid-50s,
850 hPa temperatures around +13C this afternoon will result in
highs reaching the 70s across the higher elevations and lower to
mid-80s in the valleys, right around seasonable levels. A lack
of a pressure gradient will result in light and variable winds
throughout the day.

The high will push to our east over New England tonight. A warm
front approaching from the Great Lakes will allow for some
passing high clouds through the night. Despite these high
clouds, temperatures should fall back to the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front will lift northward across the area on
Wednesday, putting our region in the warm sector of a low
pressure system centered over Hudson Bay. High pressure will
remain positioned along the New England coast with upper- level
ridging just downstream. Subsidence from these features and a
lack of forcing will keep our region dry through the day with
humidity levels also remaining in the comfortable range
(dewpoints in the 50s to around 60). 850 hPa temperatures will
be a couple of degrees higher which should allow temperatures to
rise a few degrees more compared to Tuesday. A southerly breeze
will pick up especially during the afternoon hours.

The system`s cold front will begin to enter western New York by
Wednesday evening with some showers and thunderstorms along it.
Overall forcing is weak and well to our north and west and
these showers will encounter a more stable air mass as they
continue to track eastward through the night. This should cause
the showers to gradually weaken and decrease in coverage as they
approach our region. Still, a few showers are expected after
midnight especially for areas north and west of Albany. A rumble
of thunder cannot be ruled out across the Adirondacks or Mohawk
Valley. It will be a milder night with lows mainly in the 60s.

The cold front, albeit weak, will continue to push east to
southeastward across the region on Thursday, Independence Day. A
shower or two may linger into the morning hours. Otherwise,
forcing will remain weak with the best instability building
across areas south of I-90. A few showers and thunderstorms may
develop across these areas prior to the passage of the front
during the afternoon hours, lingering into the evening and
overnight hours. Otherwise, warm and more humid conditions are
expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s in the valleys and
upper 70s to lower 80s across the higher elevations. Heat index
values (feels-like temperatures) look to peak in the upper 80s
to around 90 in the valley areas, shy of heat advisory criteria
of 95 degrees. Lows Thursday night fall back to the upper 50s
to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An old frontal boundary will be lifting northward on Friday as a
warm front, allowing the entire region to enter a warm sector.
With rising heights over the region, temps aloft will be warming
slightly as well, with 850 hpa temps somewhere in the +16 to
+18 C range. This should allow for afternoon temps to reach well
into the 80s for valley areas, with a few spots reaching around
90 in the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley. Dewpoints will
also be muggy in the 60s. With the warm and humid air mass in
place, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours.

With an upper level shortwave lifting from the Great Lakes
towards southern Canada, more widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. It will continue to be
very warm and muggy with our area in a broad southerly flow
ahead of the approaching system and a surface boundary off to
the west. Highs should be well into the 80s to near 90 once
again. Best chance for showers and t- storms looks to be during
the afternoon and early evening hours, with slightly higher
coverage of storms for areas north and west of the Capital
Region, closer to the better forcing aloft. Too early to
anticipate the severe risk, but considering the nearby shortwave
and warm/muggy air mass, it would make sense that some storms
could become strong on Saturday.

There should be less showers and t-storms around on Sunday, as
the surface front should have crossed the region, although with
a west- southwest flow still in place aloft and fairly high
heights/warm temps aloft still around, daytime temps will once
again be fairly warm on Sunday, with highs still in the mid to
upper 80s. Will keep a slight chc for a shower or t-storm
around, but coverage looks much lower with little large scale
forcing around.

Most of Monday looks dry as well, although it will depend on the
timing of the next system from the west, with perhaps a threat
for a shower or t-storm by late in the day or at night. A better
chance for more widespread coverage may arrive by Tuesday, but
this is still fairly far out. Temps continue to look above
normal and warm/muggy with fairly high heights and warm temps
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure is allowing for clear skies over the region, with
light to calm winds. A brief period of radiational fog developed
near KGFL early this morning, but this has already dissipated
with sunrise now underway.

During the day today, flying conditions will be VFR for all
sites. Skies will remain clear for much of the day, although
some thin cirrus may start to move in by this evening. Calm
winds in the morning will gradually become south to southeast
for all sites at 5 kts or less by late in the day. Winds will
remain light or calm into tonight with VFR conditions. Little to
no radiational fog is expected overnight tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Picard/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis