977
FXUS61 KALY 072002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
402 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny and increasingly humid weather will return Monday
but especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm
potential then increases mid week as a frontal system approaches
the region from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure in control of the weather tonight with a clear sky and
light to calm winds. Good radiational cooling conditions will help
temperatures fall to around 60 to mid 60s and mid to upper 50s
northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
**Heat Advisory for the mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County noon
through 8 PM Monday**

Low level ridging in the OH Valley and Southern Appalachians weakens
as low level ridging off the east coast builds west toward our
region. The low level frontal boundary to our south will drift north
as a weak and diffuse warm front Monday through Tuesday.

Then, a weak northern stream upper impulse will track through the
Great Lakes and along or just north of the U.S./Canada border,
providing a bit of enhanced low level forcing as the leading edge of
weak cold advection and some increase in boundary layer wind energy
increases chances for showers and storms by Tuesday afternoon. The
low level boundary, which will be the focus for the showers and
storms will likely become nearly stationary over our region, perhaps
over southern areas, as the remnants of Beryl potentially approach
our region from the west Wednesday and beyond.

Increased deep moisture and increasing low level jet energy would
result in more coverage of showers and thunderstorms with very heavy
rain. The timing and track of any remnants of Beryl are
uncertain but if the remnants track through our region, there
could be a flood threat Wednesday, depending on dryness or
wetness of soil based on the coverage of storms Tuesday.

The sky should be mostly sunny Monday, perhaps trending to partly
sunny in the afternoon with some isolated thunderstorms from
the eastern Catskills through mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and the
southern Berkshires late in the afternoon and an isolated shower
north of the Capital Region Monday evening as the diffuse low
level boundary drifts north. Highs well into the 80s to lower
90s and a Heat Advisory has been issued for the mid Hudson
Valley and Litchfield County for heat indices in the mid to
upper 90s.

Outside of any scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, there should be some intervals of sun, which, along
with the high humidity, will result in temperatures in the 80s
to around 90 and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Heat
Advisories may be needed in some areas Tuesday and Wednesday.
So, heat and potential excessive rainfall in some areas mainly
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Depending on the timing and track of any remnants of Beryl,
there could be more heat and humidity, along with the chance
for more heavy rain Thursday. Once any remnants of Beryl exit,
a lingering low level boundary south of the region could drift
back north, providing focus for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday into the weekend as upper heights rise
slowly and flat upper ridging builds into our region.

So, keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms through next
weekend, but coverage should be more scattered and any heavy
rain threat would be much more localized. Highs Thursday through
Saturday in the mid to upper 80s with upper 70s to lower 80s
higher terrain. Sunday could be a bit drier and warmer with
highs well into the 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through at least 06 UTC/08 with just
some diurnally driven cumulus clouds around 5-6kft and SCT to
BKN cirrus. Clouds clear this evening supporting radiational
cooling conditions with some patchy and mist possible for all
TAF sites but the highest conditions for IFR conditions is at
KGFL and KPSF. Any fog or mist quickly ends by 12-13 UTC with
VFR conditions expected the remainder of the TAF period.

Variable winds this afternoon with wind speeds near 5-9kts and
occasional gusts to 15kts. Then, winds turn light and variable
by 00 - 02 UTC and remain light under 5kts through the end of
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The remnants of Beryl may affect our region later Tuesday
through the rest of the week with potential areas of heavy
rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted much of
our region in a threat for excessive rainfall but confidence in
the timing and coverage of any potential heavy rainfall is still
low. If confidence increases, a flash flood watch may eventually
may be needed in some areas later in the week. Some river
flooding may be possible as well.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Speciale
HYDROLOGY...NAS