582
FXUS61 KALY 080544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
144 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mostly sunny hot and dry
weather today. More humid weather is expected Monday night into
Tuesday and also Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms becoming
more numerous. Shower and thunderstorm potential then continues
through much of the week as a frontal system over our region
potentially interacts with the remnants of Beryl.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 144 AM EDT...High pressure is settling over the
NY and New England with clear/mostly clear skies and light to
calm winds. Radiational cooling is ongoing with temps falling
into the 50s already in the Adirondack Park. NYS mesonet already
has temps down to 54F at Old Forge and 57F at Piseco.
Claryville in the eastern Catskills is down to 57F. Some patchy
radiational fog is forming in the sheltered valleys and over
bodies of water especially near Lake George and the CT River
Valley. Expect lows in the 50s to lower 60s with tranquil
weather conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
**Heat Advisory for the mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County noon
through 8 PM Monday**

Low level ridging in the OH Valley and Southern Appalachians weakens
as low level ridging off the east coast builds west toward our
region. The low level frontal boundary to our south will drift north
as a weak and diffuse warm front Monday through Tuesday.

Then, a weak northern stream upper impulse will track through the
Great Lakes and along or just north of the U.S./Canada border,
providing a bit of enhanced low level forcing as the leading edge of
weak cold advection and some increase in boundary layer wind energy
increases chances for showers and storms by Tuesday afternoon. The
low level boundary, which will be the focus for the showers and
storms will likely become nearly stationary over our region, perhaps
over southern areas, as the remnants of Beryl potentially approach
our region from the west Wednesday and beyond.

Increased deep moisture and increasing low level jet energy would
result in more coverage of showers and thunderstorms with very heavy
rain. The timing and track of any remnants of Beryl are
uncertain but if the remnants track through our region, there
could be a flood threat Wednesday, depending on dryness or
wetness of soil based on the coverage of storms Tuesday.

The sky should be mostly sunny Monday, perhaps trending to partly
sunny in the afternoon with some isolated thunderstorms from
the eastern Catskills through mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and the
southern Berkshires late in the afternoon and an isolated shower
north of the Capital Region Monday evening as the diffuse low
level boundary drifts north. Highs well into the 80s to lower
90s and a Heat Advisory has been issued for the mid Hudson
Valley and Litchfield County for heat indices in the mid to
upper 90s.

Outside of any scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, there should be some intervals of sun, which, along
with the high humidity, will result in temperatures in the 80s
to around 90 and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Heat
Advisories may be needed in some areas Tuesday and Wednesday.
So, heat and potential excessive rainfall in some areas mainly
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Depending on the timing and track of any remnants of Beryl,
there could be more heat and humidity, along with the chance
for more heavy rain Thursday. Once any remnants of Beryl exit,
a lingering low level boundary south of the region could drift
back north, providing focus for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday into the weekend as upper heights rise
slowly and flat upper ridging builds into our region.

So, keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms through next
weekend, but coverage should be more scattered and any heavy
rain threat would be much more localized. Highs Thursday through
Saturday in the mid to upper 80s with upper 70s to lower 80s
higher terrain. Sunday could be a bit drier and warmer with
highs well into the 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this morning with high pressure dominant across the region. While
not yet reflected in the latest METAR obs, some mist/fog development
is expected at KGFL and KPSF within the next hour or two courtesy of
clear skies to promote radiational cooling, calm winds, and elevated
relative humidity at the surface. Included IFR TEMPO groups at both
sites from 08-11z to reflect this likelihood. Also included a tempo
of MVFR conditions at KPOU FROM 09-11Z where nighttime the GOES-16
product shows some patchy low stratus nearby and the latest ob shows
93% relative humidity which could increase as cooling continues.

Any fog/mist that develops this morning will quickly burn off
shortly after sunrise as the persistence of clear skies allows for
ample solar radiation at the surface. VFR conditions will then be
returned and maintained throughout the remaining duration of the 06z
TAF cycle.

Winds throughout the period will begin calm before increasing to a
light breeze sustained at 3-6 kt out of the south to southwest.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The remnants of Beryl may affect our region later Tuesday
through the rest of the week with potential areas of heavy
rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted much of
our region in a threat for excessive rainfall but confidence in
the timing and coverage of any potential heavy rainfall is still
low. If confidence increases, a flash flood watch may eventually
may be needed in some areas later in the week. Some river
flooding may be possible as well.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Gant
HYDROLOGY...NAS