Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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751 FXUS61 KALY 070825 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 425 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in across the region will make for dry conditions today. While humidity levels will be slightly better than yesterday, high temperatures will remain very warm. Tranquility continues into the beginning of the week, but as will above normal temperatures and the return to elevated humidity. Shower and thunderstorm potential then increases mid week as a frontal system approaches the region from the west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Yesterday`s weak cold front has finally exited the region to the south and east, giving way to surface high pressure building in from the west. Aloft, geopotential heights gradually increase as 700 mb shortwave ridging moves over the Great Lakes. In the wake of the front, dewpoints have been gradually decreasing such that values now range from the upper 50s/low 60s at higher terrain to the mid/upper 60s elsewhere. However, with temperatures currently spanning the 60s with pockets of upper 50s in the Southwest Adirondacks and low 70s in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley, it remains a muggy morning across much of the region. Additionally, higher low-level humidity paired with mainly clear skies to promote sufficient radiational cooling has lead to patchy fog in some low-lying areas. Dry conditions will persist throughout the day today courtesy of the aforementioned surface high and mid-level ridge building farther east toward eastern New York and western New England. Our mildly drier airmass will ensure lower dewpoints (upper 50s to 60s) across the region, making for less oppressive heat today in comparison to yesterday. However, with 850 hPa temperatures remaining around 14-15 C, high temperatures will still be very warm with upper 70s/low 80s expected above 1000 ft and mid/upper 80s and pockets of near 90 in large valley areas. Maximum apparent temperatures will fall below Heat Advisory criteria with upper 80s to low 90s anticipated in valley areas, but caution remains advised for prolonged exposure to the heat. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tranquility persists into the overnight period tonight with high pressure remaining dominant at the surface and ridging increasing slightly aloft. A continuation to mainly clear skies will aid in temperatures radiating down to the upper 50s above 1500 ft and 60s elsewhere. Some patchy fog could develop again in sheltered areas with low-level humidity remaining elevated. Dry conditions will remain steady on Monday, though humidity will once again be on the increase. At this time, with highs progged to reach the upper 70s/low 80s above 1500 ft, mid/upper 80s and pockets of low 90s elsewhere, and dewpoints in the upper 50s to 60s, maximum apparent temperatures look to generally remain below the 95 degree F threshold. However, we will continue to monitor this element of the forecast closely as some county zones are close to reaching this criteria. Should confidence increase today, a Heat Advisory may be necessary especially for portions of the Mid-Hudson Valley. Low temperatures Monday will then fall to the 60s with near 70 in isolated pockets of the lower Mid-Hudson Valley. Tuesday`s forecast has presented itself to be a somewhat challenging one as guidance has seemed to slow the progression of an anticipated frontal system coming from the west. This is likely due, at least in part, to the presence of and uncertainty in the track of the remnants of TC Beryl. That said, while Tuesday has, in previous days, looked to have afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms, it now looks as though most areas could remain dry Tuesday. There are some hints that a stationary boundary draped along portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Long Island Coasts just to our south and east could be the driver of some light showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two mainly for areas south of I-90. Certainly this is possible with modest instability and shear being indicated on mid-range sources of guidance. Therefore, kept scattered change PoPs throughout the day Tuesday before increasing to chance PoPs Tuesday night when there begins to be a little bit better signal for some greater coverage of showers and possible embedded rumbles of thunder. High temperatures Tuesday will be very similar to Monday, though dewpoints increasing to the mid/upper 60s to low/mid 70s will drive maximum apparent temperatures into the low to mid and possibly upper 90s. Heat Advisories are certainly possible and will be issued should trends continue to indicate the likelihood of more coverage of 95 degrees or greater. Low temperatures Tuesday night will span the 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended forecast begins with former TC Beryl as a post-tropical system moving northeast from the lower/central MS River Valley towards the Midwest. The warm front to the system may be near the NY- PA border. The low and mid level warm advection increases for periods of showers with embedded thunderstorms. Sfc dewpoints rise into the 60s and lower 70s. The latest PWATS on the NAEFS/GEFS increase to 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible and WPC highlights this risk Wed-Wed night. PoPs are in the likely and high chance range and confidence/probabilities are increasing for widespread 1" or greater rainfall during this 24-hr time frame. In the humid air mass, expect max temps to be in the 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain and lower to mid 80s in the valleys (a few upper 80s in the mid Hudson Valley). In the muggy air mass...low temps will only fall off into the 60s to lower 70s. The warm front will drift north of the region and become stationary near the St Lawrence River Valley. Thursday into Thursday night...The low pressure system formerly Beryl slowly moves east/northeast towards extreme southeast Ontario and northern NY. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible with enhanced hourly rainfall rates in the tropical environment with elevated dewpoints and PWATS. Soils may become saturated in spots so we will have to monitor for any hydrological impacts. The flash flood threat we will briefly mention in the HWO WED-THU. Temps will be near seasonal normals for highs with 70s to lower 80s. The cold front to the system slides eastward Thu night with scattered showers diminishing. Lows fall into the 60s with some upper 50s over the southern Dacks. Late in the week into the weekend...the cold front stalls near extreme eastern NY and New England. The greatest probabilities for scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be from the Capital Region south and east on Friday. It really depends if a wave forms and moves along the boundary for the pcpn coverage to more expansive. The medium range guidance and ensembles hint at the boundary being stationary near the New England Coast with additional scattered showers/t-storms to start the weekend. It will be humid as temps trend from seasonal readings on Friday to slightly above to start the weekend. Overall, the temps are not to atypical for mid July. The latest CPC Day 8 to 14 outlook from Jul 14 to 20 continues to forecast above normal temps with slightly above normal pcpn for eastern NY and western New England. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak cold front continues to move slowly eastward across New England this morning. High pressure is building in from the Great Lakes Region. Some patchy MVFR/IFR mist and fog is forming across western New England and southern NY. MVFR conditions have developed at KPOU with 3-4SM with mist and LIFR/IFR levels at KPSF. The winds have gone light to calm and a moist sfc and boundary layer with recently wet ground persists. We are also seeing some decoupling at KGFL. We have added 3 to 4 hr TEMPO groups to account for IFR and brief LIFR vsbys and possibly cigs between 06Z-10Z/SUN at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have VFR conditions with a light breeze and just some sct cirrus at KALB. KPSF has the highest chance for LIFR cigs/vsbys. Weak cold/dry advection continues and we should see an improvement to VFR conditions at all the sites between 10Z-12Z/SUN. Expect VFR conditions the rest of the TAF cycle with few-sct cumulus/stratocumulus and sct-bkn cirrus. Some clearing is expected prior to 00Z/MON with the sfc anticyclone building in over NY and New England. The winds will vary in direction and be light to calm at less the 5 KT prior to 12Z/SUN. Winds will increase at 5-10 KT from the west/northwest by the late morning through the afternoon and will become light to calm by about 00Z/MON. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Gant SHORT TERM...Gant LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula