824
FXUS61 KALY 041951
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
351 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will keep the threat for a shower or
thunderstorm will tonight into Friday, with continued warm and
muggy conditions. Hot and humid conditions are expected on
Saturday with more thunderstorms around once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Diffuse surface boundary across the region producing cloud
cover and some isolated showers in the mid Hudson Valley and NW
CT. Lots of sun elsewhere, with some convective clouds even
into the Mohawk Valley, southern VT and the Berkshires, but more
scattered with just an isolated shower in those areas into this
evening.

More organized scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
NE PA will track into the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley
and NW CT, perhaps brushing the southern Berkshires tonight.
Outside of the showers and storms, convective debris clouds, and
mid and high clouds will be over our region, preventing ideal
radiational cooling conditions, and low level humidity will
increase slowly as well. So, temperatures will fall to lows in
the 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some lingering isolated to scattered showers and storms are
possible in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT Friday morning, and
a mix of clouds and sun is expected outside of any morning
showers and storms, to help temperatures and the humidity to
rise through the day. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon with the instability and diffuse
boundary still in our region as a low level focus. Highs Friday
well in the 80s to near 90, with around 80 to lower 80s higher
terrain. The increase in low level humidity will cause heat
indices to rise to the mid 90s in the mid Hudson Valley to
perhaps the Capital Region but very brief and some uncertainty
about heat indices reaching 95 or higher for two hours or more,
so no Heat Advisories.

Weak upper impulse tracks north of our region Friday night,
supporting a little bit of an expansion of the showers and
thunderstorms over our region. Instability will be marginal and
shear will increase but still, the low level forcing will be
weak, and not enough of a severe weather or flood threat to
highlight. So, showers likely with scattered thunderstorms
Friday night, that are timed to exit around or after daybreak
Saturday. Some intervals of clouds and sun later Saturday
morning and early afternoon before additional more isolated to
scattered showers and storms develop along the leading edge of
weak low level colder and drier air. The intervals of sun and
clouds will help temperatures to get well into the 80s, with
around 80 higher terrain.

Any lingering scattered showers and storms exit western New
England Saturday evening and cloud cover should decrease through
the night. Sunday is expected to be dry and partly to mostly
sunny with the weak cold front just to the south. Highs well
into the 780s to near 90 with upper 70s to lower 80s higher
terrain, and slightly less humid.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather will continue Monday with highs in the mid 80s to
around 90 and around 80 to lower 80s higher terrain. The weak
low level boundary to our south will begin to return north
Tuesday as upper energy in the Great Lakes approaches.
Increasing clouds and showers and thunderstorms are expected
Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s and upper 70s to
around 80 higher terrain.

The low level, nearly stationary boundary over our region will
be the focus for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday as weak upper energy tracks along the U.S./Canada
border. Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the lower to mid 80s
with 70s higher terrain.

The weak upper dynamics and shear suggest limited potential for
severe thunderstorms or a flood threat but the nearly
stationary nature of the low level boundary and prolonged
chances for showers and thunderstorms suggests at least keeping
an eye on heavy rain potential.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...A frontal boundary draped across much of
Upstate NY evident as a region of enhanced cloud cover on regional
satellite imagery will continue to serve as a focus for rain shower
and possibly thunderstorm development through the afternoon, with
showers most likely at POU and possibly affecting PSF. Farther north
at ALB/GFL, there remains a slight chance for brief, isolated
showers, but confidence in impacts is far too low for TAF inclusion.
Otherwise, diurnal cu at 3-5 kft will persist through the afternoon
north of the boundary, while VFR cigs are expected to the south
nearer to the front.

While cloud cover may remain elevated overnight tonight, ample low
level moisture may still result in patchy fog/mist after 08-10Z Fri,
most likely in favored valleys and where rain showers occurred
through the afternoon. Given uncertainties in exact locations, have
included MVFR vsbys with mist at GFL/POU/PSF, but maintained VFR
conditions at ALB. Any vsby restrictions will end quickly after
sunrise as the July sun angle quickly burns off any fog/mist, though
a low stratus may persist due to the abundant moisture beneath the
nocturnal inversion. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail again
after 12Z Fri, with clouds increasing from the south as the boundary
lifts back northward as a warm front.

Southeast to southwest winds at 5-10 kt will continue through this
evening, before diminishing to calm or light and variable overnight
after 00-03Z Fri. Light winds increase generally out of the south
after 12Z Fri at 5 kt or less.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Picard