909
FXUS61 KALY 020517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
117 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring warm and dry weather through Wednesday
with comfortable humidity levels. A weak cold front will bring
an increase in humidity along with some showers and possible
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Independence Day. Another low
pressure system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms
Friday into Saturday with very warm and humid conditions
continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build overhead through the day resulting in
mostly clear and dry weather along with comfortable humidity
levels. After a cool start with many areas starting out in the
mid-40s to mid-50s, 850 hPa temperatures reaching around +13C
this afternoon will result in highs reaching the 70s across the
higher elevations and lower to mid-80s in the valleys, right
around seasonable levels. A lack of a pressure gradient will
result in light and variable winds throughout the day.

The high will push to our east over New England Tuesday night.
A warm front approaching from the Great Lakes will allow for
some passing high clouds through the night. Despite these high
clouds, sufficient radiational cooling conditions should allow
temperatures to fall back to the 50s to around 60 but should
generally prevent any fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday and Wednesday night...Wednesday looks dry as well
with high pressure to the southeast and the upper ridge axis
moving overhead. Highs will be a couple to a few degrees warmer
than on Tuesday despite the fact that there will be a few more
clouds around. Wednesday night, a warm front will approach from
the west, bringing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
to the region after midnight, mainly north and west of the
Capital District. Any thunderstorms should remain elevated so
severe weather does not look to be a concern for this timeframe.
Winds will pick up Wednesday into Wednesday night, and there
will be more clouds around, so overnight lows will be warmer
with 60s for most locations and a few upper 50s for the outlying
high- terrain areas.

Thursday, a surface low tracks well to our north with the
trailing cold front tracking through our region from west to
east. With our area in the warm sector, it will be warmer and
more humid across the region. Highs will be mainly in the 70s
for the terrain with 80s for the valleys. Despite some valley
areas seeing temperatures approach 90, it looks like we should
fall short of heat advisory criteria (95F). However, there will
be some isolated showers and thunderstorms with and ahead of
the cold front Thursday afternoon, especially along and south of
I-90. Forcing for ascent looks to be relatively weak, however,
so overall coverage of storms does not look very impressive.
Nevertheless, people with outdoor plans for Independence Day
should keep an eye to the sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday night and Friday...The cold frontal boundary looks to
wash out and stall south of our region before lifting back north
as a warm front Friday afternoon or night. Due to the more
diffuse nature of the front, there are some disagreements from
the different sources of guidance as to its exact placement and
how quickly it lifts back north. With the front nearby, there
will be plenty of clouds around and we will keep slight chance
PoPs in the forecast south of I-90 closer to the front for
Thursday night and Friday. Thursday night will be warm and muggy
with lows mainly in the 60s, with some high-terrain areas again
dipping into the upper 50s. Friday will feature highs well into
the 80s for valley areas once again, although dew points should
be a few degrees lower than on Thursday.

Friday night through the weekend...The warm front will lift
northwards across our region Friday night as an upper low and
associated surface cyclone track into the Great Lakes region.
This will result in increased chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms Friday night possibly into early Saturday morning.
Saturday, we are in the warm sector. It will remain hot and
the humidity will be noticeably higher. Chances for showers and
storms increase again Saturday afternoon as the system`s cold
front slowly approaches from the west. The upper low looks to be
sheared out as it tracks into southern Canada Saturday and
Sunday, with the surface low weakening as well. This may allow
the front to stall near our region for the second half of the
weekend. Therefore, will maintain slight chance PoPs Sunday,
although storms look to be less widespread than on Saturday.
High pressure building in towards the end of the long term
period will result in a drying trend, although temperatures
remain warm Sunday and Monday with highs well into the 80s to
around 90 for valley areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure is allowing for clear skies over the region, with
light to calm winds. Through the rest of the overnight hours,
skies will remain clear for all sites. This should result in VFR
conditions for most of the time. With a low t/td spread and
good radiation cooling, some radiational fog cannot be totally
ruled out at KGFL, but it would only be for a brief period right
around sunrise. Will include a TEMPO there for two hours around
08z to 10z to account for this, but the other sites should stay
VFR with no fog.

During the day on Tuesday, flying conditions will be VFR for all
sites. Skies will remain clear for much of the day, although
some thin cirrus may start to move in by Tuesday evening. Calm
winds in the morning will gradually become south to southeast
for all sites at 5 kts or less by late in the day. Winds will
remain light or calm into Tuesday night with VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Frugis