514
FXUS61 KALY 031945
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather continues through today before a weak cold
front brings increased humidity and isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms for Independence Day. Another warm
front will see seasonably hot and humid conditions return Friday
with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A warm front lifting across the region brought enhanced clouds
earlier today, but skies have largely cleared this afternoon
aside from some diurnal cumulus over areas of higher terrain and
a few bands of mid to high level clouds dissipating as they exit
eastward into New England. Surface high pressure located to the
southeast has resulted in gusty south winds, particularly along
the Hudson Valley and at higher elevations, where gusts may
reach 20-30 mph.

Southwesterly mid-level flow will push 850-hPa temperatures to
nearly 15C today, allowing afternoon highs to rise a couple
degrees warmer than yesterday, into the mid to upper 70s in
high terrain and low to mid 80s at lower elevations. Surface
dewpoints largely in the 50s across the region will make for
another pleasant-feeling early summer day.

A prefrontal trough and weak cold front will approach the region
this evening and track to the southeast across the region
tonight into tomorrow morning. As showers approach the western
Mohawk Valley and southwestern Adirondacks this evening, there
may be enough remaining diurnal instability to support isolated
thunderstorms, but convection will decrease as the shower
activity moves away from upper-level forcing and into an
increasingly stable nocturnal airmass. Rain showers will
otherwise extend south and east through the morning. Overnight
lows will remain very mild in the 60s west of the Hudson due to
the enhanced humidity and cloud cover, while slightly cooler
conditions in the upper 50s to low 60s are expected in western
New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to sag to the south and east across
the region through Independence Day. Isolated to scattered
showers will continue through the morning, while resurgent
diurnal instability of up to 500 J/kg will support a threat for
isolated thunderstorms, particularly from Albany south, into the
evening. Limited shear should prevent thunderstorms from
becoming severe, however abundant moisture will allow any storm
to produce a brief, heavy downpour. As such, a shower or
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for any evening
festivities. North of I-90, conditions will be drier. Another
day of typical summer-like temperatures is expected with highs
in the mid 70s to low 80s in high terrain and 80 at lower
elevations. Surface dewpoints rising into the 60s to near 70
degrees may make for a muggy evening, with heat indices
reaching around 90 degrees along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys.

The front will begin to stall near or just south of the region
tonight into Friday, bringing continued mild and muggy overnight
conditions. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s in high
terrain, but remain in the mid to upper 60s at lower elevations.
A deepening surface low tracking northeastward over the Great
Lakes will lift the frontal boundary back across the region
Friday into Friday night, yielding additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain seasonably
warm to hot, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in
high terrain and mid 80s to around 90 degrees at lower
elevations. Elevated humidity will allow heat indices to rise
into the low 90s within hotter valley locales. Mild and muggy
conditions continue overnight with lows in the low 60s to low
70s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Saturday, an upper-level shortwave and associated frontal
system centered over the Great Lakes will track into southern
Quebec while its trailing cold front approaches the local region
from the west. Within the warm sector, a warm to hot airmass
with elevated humidity will persist over the region while also
supporting modest instability. Temperatures will remain above
normal, reaching afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in
high terrain and mid to upper 80s at lower elevations, with
muggy dewpoints in the 60s to 70s across the region. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
into the afternoon, while there remains uncertainty in the
potential for severe storms at this lead time.

The cold frontal passage will fail to bring much in the way of
cooling, although dewpoints will decrease into the 50s and 60s
by Sunday. Overnight conditions remain mild and muggy each of
Sunday night through Tuesday nights, with temperatures stuck in
the upper 50s to near 70s degrees across the region. Sunday will
see slightly cooler temperatures, as afternoon highs fall to
the upper 60s to mid 70s in high terrain and upper 70s to near
90 degrees at lower elevations, but temperatures will rebound
back into the mid 70s to low 90s across the region Monday
through Wednesday afternoons.

Surface high pressure developing beneath the upstream flank of
the upper ridge will allow for drier weather Sunday and Monday,
while another upper shortwave drops south over the Great Lakes
late in the period. This next frontal system looks to track into
the region Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the next chances for
widespread precipitation to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thru 18Z THU...A warm front will bring increasing and lowering
clouds late this afternoon into tonight. Conditions should stay
VFR prior to 12Z/THU. Mid and high clouds will increase tonight
and lower. Expect bases to be 6-10 kft AGL between 08Z-12Z/THU
with a few light showers approaching. We placed VCSH groups or
PROB30s in for all the TAF sites especially for KALB 08Z-12Z/THU
and PSF for 13Z-17Z/THU. Some reduction to high MVFR cigs are
possible with cigs 2-3 kft AGL. Some light showers or spotty
drizzle may linger in the morning.

The winds will be southeast to south at 8-15 KT this afternoon
with some gusts 20-25 KT especially at KALB/KPSF. The winds will
continue from the south at 5-10 KT tonight through tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Wasula