984
FXUS61 KAKQ 051433
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1033 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure lingers offshore with building heat and humidity today
and Saturday. Daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Friday...

Bertie and Hertford Counties in NC have been upgraded to an
Excessive Heat Warning for heat indices around 110F this
afternoon. 10am obs indicate that the temp forecast is on track.
Heat indices have already risen to the mid-upper 90s this
morning. Early morning runs of the CAMs continue to support
early evening initiation of convection, which further increases
confidence of reaching excessive heat warning thresholds.

Previous discussion..

Key Messages:

- Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect today for much of the
  area with Heat Advisories elsewhere.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms are
  possible.

- Temperatures remain very warm overnight.

An upper ridge extends from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas early
this morning with a trough across the Upper Midwest. At the surface,
high pressure was centered off the Southeast Coast. Partly cloudy
skies with patchy fog linger early this morning with fog dissipating
shortly after sunrise. Temps as of 640 AM ranged from the lower
70s W to the mid 70s elsewhere with dew points in the low-mid
70s. The 00z WAL sounding showed a PW value of 2.16" which is
above the 90th percentile and just shy of the daily record. This
moisture is just the start to with S/SSW winds continuing to
advect moisture into the area today. Dew points are expected to
rise into the mid-upper 70s across the area today while temps
soar into the upper 90s inland and mid 90s closer to the coast.
Some model guidance even has temps reaching 100F around
Richmond. While dew points may mix out some this afternoon, the
S flow of rich moisture should act to mitigate mixing.
Additionally, convection now appears to move into the area later
in the afternoon (as opposed to early afternoon). Therefore,
heat indices are now expected to rise to ~110F across much of
the area with 105-108F across the far NW, far S (Bertie and
Hertford), along the immediate coast in E Currituck, and the
Eastern Shore. Additionally, DESI has probs of heat indices
>109F of 30-40% across much of the area with localized pockets
of 50-70%. As such, Heat Advisories have been upgraded to
Excessive Heat Warnings across much of the area (per
coordination with neighboring offices) with Heat Advisories
along the edges of the FA and the Eastern Shore. Will note that
while all of Currituck County is under an Excessive Heat
Warning, the greater threat is the inland portion of the county
with Currituck beaches likely to remain cooler (95-100F heat
indices).

Aside from the excessive heat, PoPs increase to 25-40% (highest SW)
later this afternoon into this evening with isolated to scattered
showers and storms possible. That being said, these look to be very
hit or miss with widespread coverage not expected. Showers and
storms taper off overnight with cloud cover lingering. Given the
cloud cover and very high dew points, temps may struggle to drop
below 80F from Richmond towards the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore
overnight. This will increase heat strain. Depending on how the
temps/dew points trend for Sat, Heat Advisories or an extension of
the Excessive Heat Warnings may be needed through tonight and into
Sat to cover the overnight heat risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 650 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Very hot conditions continue into Saturday with heat indices
  of up to around 110F possible along portions of eastern
  Virginia and northeast North Carolina with 102-107F farther
  west and across the Eastern Shore.

- Scattered storms are possible Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night.

The upper ridge breaks down some by Saturday allowing the upper
trough and a weakening cold front to approach from the NW.
Meanwhile, an upper level low lingers off the Southeast coast.

PW values remain very high Sat (2-2.2" with locally higher
values). Additionally some stronger mid- level flow approaches
from the NW. This could result in some better storm
organization, which may allow for some stronger storms. That
being said, the more likely threat from showers/storms will be
heavy rain given the very moist environment. The most favorable
region for some locally heavy rain appears to be across
southern/SE VA and NE NC at this time. However, widespread
rainfall totals of 0.5-1.0" appear possible from Mecklenburg NE
to the Northern Neck. Localized higher totals are possible.
Storm coverage farther W appears more conditional with mainly
the NAM being the outlier with higher coverage in this area. A
cold front approaches the area but stalls, allowing for PoPs to
continue overnight Sat night and into Sun with the highest PoPs
across SE VA/NE NC. Showers/storms gradually move offshore Sun
night.

Given morning lows in the upper 70s to around 80F across E
portions of the FA Sat morning, it won`t take much heating for
temps to rise into the 90s with afternoon highs in the mid 90s W
to the mid-upper 90s E. Dew points remain very high Sat in the
mid 70s W to the upper 70s E. Given the combination of heat and
humidity, the heat indices may rise to around 110F across
portions of E/SE VA and NE NC with 105-108F farther west
(102-105 across the far W Piedmont) and across the Eastern
Shore. Extensions of the Excessive Heat Warning or additional
Heat Advisories through Sat are possible depending on forecast
trends. Will note that the challenging aspect of Sat is that
storms are expected to be more widespread in coverage. If they
happen early enough, the rain cooled air and cloud cover may
keep temps cooler than currently forecast. If this happens, heat
indices may be lower than and/or a shorter duration than
currently forecast. Even so, Heat Advisories (at a minimum) are
likely for most of the area. DESI probs are not as high for Sat
as they are for Fri with 20-40% chances for heat indices >109F
across SE VA/NE NC. With the convection allowing for rain cooled
air, lows Sat night will be cooler than tonight in the lower
70s W to mid 70s along the E of I-95. Highs Sun in the upper 80s
to lower 90s with lows Sun night in the low-mid 70s expected.
Heat indices will be cooler on Sun (95-100F).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Slightly above normal temperatures and very humid conditions
  continue through next week.

- Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly afternoon
  and evening showers and storms each day.

Not as hot through the period, but high temps will still be
slightly above normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s
(most in the lower 90s). Humidity sticks around with dew points
in the 70s continuing through the week. Additionally, with lee
troughs and/or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the
region, expect chances for mainly afternoon/evening
showers/storms each day. Heat indices will mainly range from
the mid 90s to lower 100s through the week. Warm and muggy
nights continue as well with lows ranging from the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

Patchy fog along and west of I-95 should quickly dissipate over
the next hour or two. Otherwise, clouds clear this morning
before CU (VFR CIGs around 7000-10000 ft) build in from SW to
NE this afternoon into this evening. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are possible this afternoon into this
evening. However, confidence in coverage is too low to go with
more than VCSH/VCTS at RIC/SBY/PHF. Mostly cloudy skies move in
tonight with MVFR (and potentially IFR) CIGs possible across
portions of SE VA and NE NC as well as SBY.

A weakening and slow moving cold front settles into the region
Saturday. This will bring a higher chance of afternoon/evening
showers/storms. This front settles near the coast Sunday and
washes out, with a remnant boundary lingering over the area
Monday/Tuesday. Unsettled weather continues through the week
with daily chances for showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- Southerly winds increase later this afternoon into tonight, with
Small Craft Advisories now in effect for the coastal waters, lower
Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound.

- There is a moderate rip risk across area beaches today and
Saturday.

Early this morning, winds are generally out of the S to SSW and
range around 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 3-4 ft with waves 1-2 ft in
the Bay.

SSW winds shift to the SSE and increase later this afternoon into
this evening as a cold front begins to slowly approach from the NW,
tightening the gradient over the waters. Winds will first increase
across the southern waters this afternoon, with the higher gusts
spreading north later through this evening. Latest local wind probs
show the best potential for 25 knot gusts (70-80% chance) out 20 nm
with lower probabilities closer to the coast. In addition to the
wind, seas will also increase to around 5 feet later this afternoon
into tonight. SCAs are now in effect for the lower Chesapeake Bay
and Currituck Sound this afternoon through this evening and the
coastal waters this afternoon into tonight. Similar conditions are
expected on Saturday, with winds again ramping up later Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. Additional SCAs may be needed for
this timeframe. Lighter winds are then expected Sunday into early
next week as the cold front dissipates over the local waters.

A moderate rip current risk in place for all beaches today with the
moderate threat expected to continue through Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No record highs or record high mins were set today/July 4th.

Record High Temperatures Fri and Sat (July 5-6)

          7/5       7/6
- RIC  102/2012   105/1977
- ORF   98/2012   102/1881
- SBY  102/2012   102/2010
- ECG  100/2012    99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 4-6)

           7/5       7/6
- RIC    79/2012   80/2012
- ORF    80/1999   80/1999
- SBY    81/2012   77/2012
- ECG    77/2018   78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060-061-
     099-100-509-510.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-511>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ632>634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AM/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...