975
FXUS61 KAKQ 052348
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
748 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure lingers offshore with building heat and humidity today
and Saturday. Daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect through the evening for
  much of the area with Heat Advisories elsewhere.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms are
  possible. Potential for a few storms in the piedmont to become
  severe.

- Temperatures remain very warm overnight.

High pressure continues to sit off the SE this afternoon while a
weak stationary front is situated well the NW. Aloft, a ridge is in
place from the Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic with a trough dipping
into the upper Midwest. A moist airmass is in place, allowing
dewpoints to climb into the upper 70s. Latest mesoscale analysis
indicates PWs over 2" along the coast and 1.5-2" in the piedmont.
Temps have risen into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.
Dangerously high heat indices are evident with latest obs, which
show widespread values near 110 (a few sites have occasionally shown
112 even). Thus, the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories will
continue into the evening. Latest radar shows convection initiating
in SW VA with 1 or 2 small showers starting to show along the SW
border of the FA. Not expecting widespread storms this evening, but
will see scattered convection primarily through the NW half of the
FA. CAMs continue to favor the late evening time period for the
majority of precip.  Areas W of the bay have 20-40% PoPs (highest in
SW) through the rest of the afternoon, then PoPs increase to 40-55%
for areas W of I-95 after sunset. Later tonight, may see isolated
showers/storms along northern counties. There is a marginal risk for
severe storms along the western tier of counties. While shear is not
favorable, plentiful MLCAPE (1500-2000J/KG) and decent low level
lapse rates will allow a chance for damaging wind gusts with
stronger storms.

Scattered to broken cloud cover is expected to remain in place
overnight, which will aid in keeping overnight temps rather warm.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s. A few locations along the
coast may not even drop lower than 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Very hot conditions continue into Saturday with heat indices
  of up to around 110F possible along portions of eastern
  Virginia and northeast North Carolina with 102-107F farther
  west and across the Eastern Shore. A Heat Advisory is in place
  for much of the forecast area.

- Scattered storms are possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday
  night. Heavy rain will the main threat with stronger storms.

The upper ridge breaks down some by Saturday allowing the upper
trough and a weakening cold front to approach from the NW.
Meanwhile, an upper level low lingers off the Southeast coast. Hot
and humid weather continues for the FA, though not quite as hot as
today. Highs will be in the mid 90s and dewpoints will stay in the
mid-upper 70s for most of the area, low 70s for NW counties. Heat
indices will rise to 105-108F for much of the area with perhaps a
few locations near the coast reach 110F. Went ahead and issued a
Heat Advisory for most of the FA, except for NW counties and the
beaches. Ahead of the front, afternoon/evening storms with higher
coverage than today are expected. Highest coverage is expected along
the coast where PoPs will increase to 60-70% during the early
evening hours with 30-55% elsewhere. With some stronger mid- level
flow approaching from the NW, better storm organization may allow
for some stronger storms. That being said, the more likely threat
from showers/storms will be heavy rain given the very moist
environments. PWs will once again be over 2". Thus, the WPC has
placed SE portions of the area in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rain.
QPF tomorrow looks like widespread values under 0.5" with localized
areas of 1-2". The cold front approaches the area but stalls,
allowing for PoPs to continue overnight Sat night and into Sun with
the highest PoPs across SE VA/NE NC. Showers/storms gradually move
offshore Sun night. With the convection allowing for rain cooled
air, lows Sat night will be cooler than tonight in the lower 70s W
to mid 70s along the E of I-95. Highs Sun in the upper 80s to lower
90s with lows Sun night in the low-mid 70s expected. Heat indices
will be cooler on Sun (95-100F).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures and very humid
  conditions continue through next week.

- Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly afternoon
  and evening showers and storms each day.

Not as hot through the period, but high temps will still be
slightly above normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s
(most in the lower 90s). Humidity sticks around with dew points
in the 70s continuing through the week. Additionally, with lee
troughs and/or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the
region, expect chances for mainly afternoon/evening
showers/storms each day. Best chance for relatively widespread
showers/storms looks to be late in the week when low pressure
potentially impacts the region. Heat indices will mainly range
from the mid 90s to around 100s through the week. Warm and muggy
nights continue as well with lows ranging from the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Friday...

SCT showers/storms have developed across srn VA, with the
highest coverage over SE VA. Reduced VSBY and elevated winds are
most likely at PHF over the next hr or so, with lower chances at
ORF (but still possible). Additional isolated/widely SCT
activity is possible through early tonight, with "highest"
coverage trending W of the terminals. Partly to mostly cloudy
skies move in tonight with MVFR CIGs possible across portions
of SE VA and NE NC (ORF/PHF/ECG) as well as SBY. IFR cannot be
ruled out but looks unlikely as of now. CU redevelops Sat aftn
with more widespread showers and storms redeveloping over
approximately the ern/SE half of the area along a cold front.
Will go with VCSH for now and will refine timing in later TAFs.
Winds will be ~10 kt out of the S through the period (locally
higher in showers/storms).

The front settles near the coast Sunday and washes out, with a
remnant boundary lingering over the area Monday/Tuesday.
Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances
for showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Late this aftn, winds were SSE 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt
across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 3-4 ft.

SSE winds will increase to 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, as a
cold front begins to slowly approach from the NW, tightening
the gradient over the waters. Winds will first increase across
the southern waters early this evening, with the higher gusts
spreading north later through this evening. Latest local wind
probs show the best potential for 25 kt gusts (70-80% chance)
out 20 nm, with lower probabilities closer to the coast. In
addition to the wind, seas will also increase to around 5 feet
this evening into tonight. SCAs remain in effect for the lower
Ches Bay and Currituck Sound through this evening, and the srn
two coastal zns into tonight. Have extended the SCA for the nrn
three coastal zns into Sat night, due to 5 feet seas lingering.

Similar conditions are expected on Sat, with S winds again
ramping up later Sat aftn into Sat night, mainly over the
coastal waters. Lighter winds are then expected Sun into early
next week, as the cold front dissipates over the local waters.

A moderate rip current risk is in place for all beaches through
Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No record highs or record high mins were set today/July 4th.

Record High Temperatures Fri and Sat (July 5-6)

          7/5       7/6
- RIC  102/2012   105/1977
- ORF   98/2012   102/1881
- SBY  102/2012   102/2010
- ECG  100/2012    99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 4-6)

           7/5       7/6
- RIC    79/2012   80/2012
- ORF    80/1999   80/1999
- SBY    81/2012   77/2012
- ECG    77/2018   78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060-061-
     099-100-509-510.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-511>525.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-511>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/RMM
LONG TERM...AM/RMM
AVIATION...AM/SW
MARINE...AJB/TMG
CLIMATE...