476
FXUS61 KAKQ 201054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
654 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front over NC will lift is lifting north early this
morning, bringing unsettled conditions back to most of the area
with locally heavy rainfall possible. Somewhat unsettled
conditions are expected through much of next week with scattered
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each
day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Weak frontal boundary lifts northward this morning with low
  pressure translating along the front this afternoon. Areas
  near and north of the boundary will see periods of moderate to
  locally heavy rainfall.

- A few strong storms are possible along and south of the front this
  afternoon and evening.

Early morning analysis shows high pressure well off the SE CONUS
with a weak front slowly making northward progress across NC and
into VA. Aloft, a broad positively-tilted trough is noted over
the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, resulting in SW
flow over the region. Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy
skies across the region and a few showers have developed along
the northward-advancing front near and just offshore from VA
Beach.

Expect the front to continue to lift north this morning with an
increasing chance for showers and a few storms. Skies will be
mostly cloudy today with widespread showers and storms possible
this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will be held down
by cloud cover and showers with highs ranging from the upper 70s
NW to the mid 80s SE. A shortwave trough in the flow aloft will
result in weak low pressure forming along the frontal boundary
which will serve to enhance lift and low level convergence along
and north of the front this afternoon. CAM/HREF guidance shows
the greatest precip coverage and probabilities of 3"/3 hours
generally along the US 460 corridor today. WPC has included a
small Slight Risk area from the VA/NC border northward into the
I-64 corridor today. In coordination with neighboring offices,
have opted not to issue a flood watch for today with the highest
QPF placed just north of the areas that have received the most
rainfall over the last 72 hours (Mecklenburg County eastward
along the VA/NC border and into NE NC). If short term trends
show less northward progress with the front this morning, a
short-fused Flood Watch may be required for these areas. As low
pressure translates east along the front late this afternoon and
evening, PoPs will be focused across the SE third of the area
and near the coast/offshore after midnight. Enhanced flow aloft
will result in 25-30 kt of shear this afternoon and evening
along and south of the frontal boundary. Strong straight line
winds locally heavy rainfall are the main threats from
convection this afternoon and evening. SPC has areas near and
south of the VA/NC border in a Marginal Risk. Lows tonight range
from the mid/upper 60s N and NW to the low 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Lower coverage of showers and storms on Sunday as the front
  meanders from central NC into VA in the afternoon.

The front gets pushed into NC in the wake of weak low pressure.
Shower and storm chances will be focused over the southern third of
the area on Sunday. Fewer clouds and showers across the northern
half of the area will result in slightly higher temps Sunday
afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 80s N and NW with mid
80s to the S. Some break in the humid conditions is expected for the
northern half of the area with dew points in the upper 60s to low
70s while areas south of the I-64 corridor will maintain dew points
in the mid 70s and PWAT values greater than 2". Overnight lows fall
into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Not much change in the overall synoptic pattern on Monday with
continued SW flow aloft and deep moisture over the region. The front
is forecast to lift north of the area on Monday so there will be
less forcing in the low levels to focus shower and storm chances.
That said, diurnally driven convection is likely across the area
with locally heavy rainfall possible just about anywhere in region.
Highs Monday stay in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows again
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled this week with deep moisture and daily
  chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The remainder of the work week will see little change in the overall
pattern across the region with continued SW flow aloft. Bermuda high
offshore will maintain a feed of deep moisture into the region with
PWAT values generally aoa 2". Showers and storms will follow a
diurnal cycle, generally forming over inland areas in the afternoon
and spreading toward the coast in the evening. Have maintained
likely PoPs each afternoon through Thursday with somewhat lower
chances on Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90
degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. A few degrees cooler for the latter
half of the week with highs in the mid 80s. Overnight lows continue
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

Mix of flying conditions in place early this morning with MVFR/IFR
CIGs noted across the western half of the area while VFR
prevails near the coast. Included a short TEMPO at RIC to cover
brief departures to IFR over the next hour or two. Expect CIGs
to be predominantly MVFR by 14-15z except for SBY where VFR
prevails today. Showers and a few storms are possible this
morning with local flight restrictions expected in and around
any convection. A front lifts northward this morning and an area
of low pressure is expected to develop along the front this
afternoon, resulting in greater coverage of showers and storms
along and just north of where the boundary sets up. Relative
greater chances for thunder will exist along and to the south of
this boundary this afternoon and evening. Low confidence in
specific timing of storms this afternoon so will show VCTS at
ORF, PHF, and ECG. Light winds this morning become SE 5-10 kt
this afternoon.

MVFR/IFR cigs are possible in vicinity of the boundary tonight.
Unsettled conditions continue Sunday through Wednesday with daily
chances of mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A warm front lifts north through the area today, bringing light
and variable winds.

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue
through at least early next week, although afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are possible each day.

A warm front is slowly moving north across nrn NC early this
morning, with E-SE winds of 5-10 kt over the waters and 2-3 ft
seas/1-2 ft waves. The front is progged to continue to lift north
across part of the area today before stalling as weak sfc low
pressure tracks along it. The weak low moves offshore tonight. Winds
will generally be E-SE at ~10 kt today, with S-SE winds south of the
front (over the far SE VA/NE NC coastal waters). Winds become
variable this evening as the low tracks over the waters before
turning to the W-NW tonight (and remaining well below SCA
thresholds). Despite the prevailing sub-SCA conditions, scattered to
numerous tstms could produce locally higher gusts (especially from
midday through this evening). Light and variable winds are expected
Sunday with continuing shower/storm chances. S/SW winds become more
established Monday and especially the middle of next week as the
pressure gradient tightens between Bermuda high pressure offshore
and weak low pressure well to our NW. It still looks to remain
predominantly sub-SCA through the period, outside of brief higher
wind gusts from convection. Waves in the bay average 1-2 ft while
seas average 2-3 ft. Seas increase to 3-4 ft across the northern
waters mid-late this week as SSW winds become a bit more elevated
(but still below SCA thresholds).

Will continue with a moderate rip current risk across the northern
beaches this weekend, with a low rip risk for VA Beach/Eastern
Currituck.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI/SW