230
FXUS61 KAKQ 210141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
941 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rainfall gradually tapers off this evening along a stalled
front. Not as wet Sunday with the front dropping south.
Unsettled conditions are expected through much of next week with
scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Heavy rain threat has diminished.

- Otherwise, a rather quiet night with some patchy fog
  potentially developing.

A wavy stationary front has settled just S of the VA/NC border
this evening as a weak surface low has pushed offshore.
Elsewhere, broad high pressure is located offshore and over the
OH Valley region. Aloft, a subtle shortwave trough has pushed
offshore in about ~35 kt of 500 mb flow, with another wave
moving across NC. This wave has triggered additional
showers/tstms across east central NC, and this activity is
nudging into NE NC this evening. All Flash Flood Warnings have
expired and the Flood Watch has been cancelled. However, there
are Flood Warnings that remain in effect for portions of
Northumberland and Lancaster Counties for lingering runoff.
There were some very impressive rain totals total in Gloucester
County and further N on the Northern Neck (Lancaster/Northumberland
Counties) with some spots seeing 5-6"+. In addition, there were
some intense rain rates across portions of Hampton Roads.

Temperatures this evening range through the 70s. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies prevail overnight with lows in the upper 60s
or lower 70s. Most of the precip should be out of the area by
midnight-2 AM. Depending on where most of the falls tonight and
if there is any clearing, some patchy fog could develop,
especially W of I-95 in the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Lower coverage of showers and storms on Sunday as the front
meanders from central NC into VA in the afternoon.

- Higher coverage of storms and potential heavy rain/flooding
returns Monday.

The front remains near the area Sunday, but shower and storms are
expected to focus more across the S/SW. Fewer clouds and showers
across the northern half of the area will result in slightly higher
temps Sunday afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 80s N and
NW with mid 80s to the S. Some break in the humid conditions is
expected for the northern half of the area with dew points in the
upper 60s to low 70s while areas south of the I-64 corridor will
maintain dew points in the mid 70s and PWAT values greater than 2".
Similar the previous few days, any storm could produce heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding. However, the threat should be
more isolated than today and no flood watches are anticipated.
Overnight lows fall into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Not much change in the overall synoptic pattern on Monday with
continued SW flow aloft and deep moisture over the region. The front
is forecast to lift north of the area on Monday so there will be
less forcing in the low levels to focus shower and storm chances.
That said, diurnally driven convection is likely across the area
with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible just about
anywhere in region. There was enough consensus in the global models
to increase PoPs to 70% for most of the FA. Highs Monday stay in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows again in the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled this coming week with deep moisture in
  place and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The remainder of next week will see little change in the
overall pattern across the region with continued SW flow aloft.
Bermuda high offshore will maintain a feed of deep moisture into
the region with PWAT values generally aoa 2". Showers and
storms will generally follow a diurnal cycle, generally forming
over inland areas in the afternoon and spreading toward the
coast in the evening. Have maintained likely PoPs each afternoon
through Friday with somewhat lower chances on Saturday. There
are indications that this stagnant/wet pattern may take a break
by next weekend as sfc high pressure builds to our north and
pushes a cold front south of the area. Highs will be in the
mid-upr 80s to around 90 degrees Wednesday, then a few degrees
cooler for the latter half of the week with highs in the mid
80s. Overnight lows continue in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

The initial round of showers/tstms has pushed offshore as of
00z. Primarily VFR aside from some patch MVFR cigs. Another wave
is lifting across NC and this could bring some additional
showers/tstms, mainly affecting ECG later this evening. A tempo
group for thunder was included at ECG from 02-05z, and brief
IFR/MVFR vsby is possible in heavy rain. Cigs lower after 06z,
with MVFR conditions likely and IFR possible, especially at RIC,
with some MVFR fog also possible. The best chc (30-50%) for
aftn showers/tstms shifts into southern VA/NE NC Sunday, with
20% or less to the N as drier air filter into the region. Mainly
VFR after 13-14z Sunday outside of any brief restrictions from
showers/tstms.

Unsettled conditions continue Sunday night through Thursday
with daily chances of mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue
  into the middle of next week, although afternoon/evening
  thunderstorms are possible each day.

Late this aftn, a warm front was laying across the srn portions
of the waters. Winds were ESE 5-15 kt north of the front, and
SSW 5-15 kt south of the front. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were
2-3 ft. Weak sfc low pressure will move east along the front
this evening, then off the coast tonight. Winds become variable
this evening, as the low tracks over the waters before turning
to the W-NW tonight into Sun morning (and remaining well below
SCA thresholds). Despite the prevailing sub-SCA conditions, sctd
to numerous tstms could produce locally higher gusts through
this evening. Variable winds less than 10 kt are expected Sun,
with continuing shower/storm chances. SSW winds become more
established Mon and esply for Mon night through Wed, as the
pressure gradient tightens between Bermuda high pressure offshore
and weak low pressure well to our NW. It still looks to remain
predominantly sub-SCA through the period, outside of brief
higher wind gusts from convection. Waves in the bay average 1-2
ft, while seas average 2-3 ft. Seas increase to 3-4 ft across
the northern waters Tue and Wed, as SSW winds become a bit more
elevated (but still below SCA thresholds).

Will continue with a moderate rip current risk across the northern
beaches this weekend, with a low rip risk for VA Beach/Eastern
Currituck.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR/SW
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SW
SHORT TERM...RHR/SW
LONG TERM...JDM/RHR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI/TMG