Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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743 FXUS61 KAKQ 061047 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 647 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very hot and humid again today with scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southeastern portions of the area. Somewhat cooler but humid conditions continue through next week with daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Very hot and humid conditions continue with heat indices up to around 112F possible across the eastern half of the area and 103- 108F farther west. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for the entire area. - Scattered storms are possible this afternoon into tonight across mainly southeast portions of the area with heavy rain possible. High pressure continues to sit off the SE early this morning while a weak stationary front is situated well the NW. Aloft, a ridge is in place from the Gulf coast to the S Mid-Atlantic with a trough dipping into the upper Midwest. A moist airmass remains in place with latest mesoanalysis showing PWATs of 2-2.2" across the area. Temps as of 640 AM ranged from the mid 70s W to the upper 70s to around 80F E. A few light showers continue to move NE across the Eastern Shore. Very hot and humid conditions continue today under partly cloudy skies. Given that temps and dew points will already be starting out in the mid-upper 70s, it won`t take long for heat indices to climb above 100F by around 10-11AM. DESI probs for heat indices >109 have increased to 60-80% across Hampton Roads with 40-50% probs across NE NC and lower probs NW up to I-95. As such, confidence has increased in heat indices climbing yet again to 110-112F (locally higher possible) E of I-95 and including the Eastern Shore. Confidence decreases substantially around the I-95 corridor where heat indices of 107-110F are possible. Heat indices decrease farther W and along the Outer Banks and Eastern Shore beaches. However, heat indices up to 105F are possible in these areas. As such, have upgrades to Excessive Heat Warnings along and E of I-95 (excluding the aforementioned beaches) with Heat Advisories in effect for the remainder of the area. Will note that confidence in the far W counties is lower due to the potential for more mixing of the dew points. Otherwise, highs today in the mid-upper 90s are expected with lows tonight in the lower 70s W to the mid-upper 70s E. A cold front approaches from the W today, stalling over central VA. Model guidance has come into better agreement regarding convection this afternoon remaining limited to primarily SE VA/NE NC where PoPs increase to 60% this afternoon. Farther N/NW PoPs are 30-40% with some uncertainty regarding how far NW the showers/storms push. PoPs linger across SE portions of the FA through tonight but gradually diminish with time. Given very high PWATs and weak shear, heavy rain will be possible with any storms, especially if storms train with >1" of rain possible. WPC has SE portions of the FA under a slight risk for excessive rainfall with marginal for the remainder of the FA. Additionally, a few strong to potentially severe storms are also possible (mainly across SE VA/NE NC). However, widespread severe storms are not anticipated. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday and Monday. - Remaining humid with heat indices of 98-105F each day. The cold front lingers as a stationary front across the area early next week with daily chances for showers and storms continuing. The best chance Sun is across SE VA/NE NC (40-60% PoPs) with the best chance Mon across the Piedmont (40-50% PoPs). Given the very high PWATs, locally heavy rain will be possible both days. Temps will remain in the upper 80s to low- mid 90s each day. However, with dew points remaining in the mid-upper 70s SE on Sun and mid 70s everywhere on Mon, heat indices of 98-105F are possible both days. Lows in the low-mid 70s are expected both nights as well. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 410 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue through next week. - Remaining unsettled with daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Highs Tue and Wed mainly in the lower 90s with highs the rest of the week in the mid-upper 80s. However, humidity sticks around with dew points in the 70s continuing through the week. Additionally, with lee troughs and/or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the region, expect chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers/storms each day (40-55% PoPs each day). Tue and Wed are the hottest of the week with heat indices of 95-103F (locally 105F possible Tue). Heat indices return to the low-mid 90s for Thu and Fri. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Saturday... Partly cloudy skies linger today with primarily VFR CIGs. However, some MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible across E portions of the Eastern Shore over the next few hours. CU redevelop this afternoon with scattered showers and storms developing across SE VA/NE NC and potentially extending up to the Eastern Shore as a cold front approaches and stalls. Showers and storms are most likely between 20-00z at ORF/ECG with lower confidence at PHF/RIC/SBY. Winds remain SSW/S around 10 kt through the period (locally higher in showers/storms). As the front stalls inland and temps cool overnight, CIGs lower to MVFR (locally IFR) overnight. Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for showers/storms. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles for seas up to 5 feet and southerly wind gusts up to 25 knots. - There is a moderate rip risk for all area beaches today. Early this morning, a weak cold front is located west of the local area with winds out of the S to SSW ranging from 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Seas are running around 4 to 5 feet north of Cape Charles and 3 to 4 feet south. Waves in the Bay are generally running around 2 feet. Similar to yesterday, winds will increase during the afternoon/evening hours with the highest winds over the coastal waters/out 20 nm (occasional gusts to ~25 knots). Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also fire up later this afternoon into the first part of the night, a few of which may require Special Marine Warnings due to strong wind gusts. The cold front will slowly approach tonight, before stalling/dissipating over or near the local waters on Sunday. Predominately sub-SCA winds are then expected Sunday through early next week, generally running around 10 to 15 knots out of the S or SE. The next potential for marginal SCAs will be Wednesday into Thursday as another cold front approaches from the west. In typical summer-time fashion, the front will likely dissipate over the local waters. There is a moderate rip current risk at all area beaches today. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk south. && .CLIMATE... No record highs set today 7/6. See below for actual high temps: - RIC 99 (Record 102/2012) - ORF 97 (Record 98/2012) - SBY 94 (Record 102/2012) - ECG 94 (Record 100/2012) Record High Temperatures for Sat (July 6): - RIC 105/1977 - ORF 102/1881 - SBY 102/2010 - ECG 99/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 5-6) 7/5 7/6 - RIC 79/2012 80/2012 - ORF 80/1999 80/1999 - SBY 81/2012 77/2012 - ECG 77/2018 78/1999 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025. NC...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...AJB CLIMATE...