105
FXUS61 KAKQ 190746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
346 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front is moving SE this morning and should move into NC
today. This front lifts back north late tonight into Saturday,
bringing unsettled conditions back to most of the area over the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A weak front drifts south today with shower and storm chances
  confined to the southern half of the area.

Broad high pressure is noted over the Midwest early this morning
with a front draped across the SE third of the area. South of
this front, deep moisture remains in place with a few showers
and widespread low stratus and areas of fog. Some drier air is
slowly working its way into the northern half of the area and
will continue to make some southward progress today.

Clouds and showers near and south of the VA/NC border will result in
cooler temps this afternoon with highs generally in the low 80s. To
the north, drier air aloft will mix down resulting in fewer clouds
and highs in the mid 80s. Showers linger across the south into this
evening but coverage should decrease toward midnight. Overnight
lows range from the mid 60s N to the low/mid 70s S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- The front lifts back north on Saturday, bringing increasing humidity
  and chances for showers and storms. A few storms could be
  strong on Saturday, generally east of I-85 and south of I-64.

Bermuda high pressure noses back west a bit on Saturday which will
help to lift the front back northward. Low level moisture increases
behind the front. A perturbation in the SW flow aloft will also
result in somewhat greater lift Saturday afternoon and evening. A
weak wave of low pressure develops along the front and translates
east late afternoon into the evening. Winds aloft will not be overly
strong but should be sufficiently enhanced to result in 20-25 kt of
deep layer shear. Combined with increasing surface dew points and
afternoon heating, a few strong storms are possible across the
southern half of the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Strong
straight line winds will pose the biggest threat but locally heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning can be expected to accompany the
stronger convective cores. SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms,
generally along and south of US 460. WPC also has a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall, generally in the same region as the severe risk.
Relief from the recent hot temperatures continues with highs in the
low to mid 80s across the region. Greatest shower/storm coverage
should shift toward the coast Saturday evening into early Sunday
with low temps ranging from the mid 60s NW to the low 70s SE.

Upper flow remains out of the SW on Sunday with a trough digging
southward across the Mississippi Valley. The front is expected to
linger over the region which results in continued diurnal chances
for showers and storms across the region. Shear is forecast to be
lower on Sunday so not expecting widespread strong storms. PoPs are
focused across the southern half of the area Sunday afternoon and
evening. A few degrees warmer on Sunday with highs generally in the
mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows inch upward as well with upper 60s
N and NW and low to mid 70s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues with daily shower/storm chances.

More of the same is expected as we head into next week with Bermuda
high pressure anchored offshore and continued SW flow aloft. Showers
and storms will be favored in the afternoon and evening with some
convection lingering into the overnight period near the coast.
Temperatures stay in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees through the
upcoming week with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to low
and mid 70s. While temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal for the period, the S and SW flow around the periphery of
Bermuda high will keep a feed of low level moisture streaming into
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

Showers and tstms will diminish/end over SE VA and NE NC after
02Z. Expecting dry conditions at all terminals overnight into
Friday morning as a cold front pushes south of the local area.
MVFR CIGS expected at ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY after 03z, while remaining
VFR at RIC.

Outlook: Mainly VFR/dry Friday over the north and central, with
MVFR CIGS lingering at ECG thru 18z. The boundary lifts back N
Saturday with showers and tstms scattered to likely for most
areas. Sunday will see scattered, mainly aftn/evening
showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front stalls just to the south of the local waters today,
with NE to E winds expected. Wind speeds will remain below SCA
criteria.

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue
through at least early next week, although afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are possible each day.

A cold front is crossing the waters early this morning, and winds
have become N-NW at 5-10 kt across the nrn waters, with light
westerly winds farther south. The front will stall across NC today,
and winds become NE at 10-15 kt after sunrise (and remain in that
range through much of the day). Occasional 20 kt gusts are possible
throughout the day, especially on the bay/Lower James. However,
these gusts don`t look to be frequent enough to warrant SCAs (local
wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds are below 10% today). Winds
become more easterly and diminish to ~10 kt this evening before
becoming SE or S on Saturday as the front lifts back N as a warm
front. Benign conditions are expected Sunday-Tuesday with sub-SCA
winds (the direction will be somewhat variable Sat night-Sun AM
before becoming S or SW from late Sun-Tue). Afternoon/evening
shower/storm chances continue through the period. SMWs will likely
be needed with the strongest storms, although widespread severe wx
is not expected.

A moderate rip risk continues for all beaches today. The moderate
rip risk continues for the nrn beaches this weekend, with a low rip
risk from VA Beach to the Atlantic beaches of eastern Currituck
County.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI