018
FXUS61 KAKQ 190633
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage across
southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina through the late
evening as a frontal boundary stalls nearby. This front lifts
back north late Friday, bringing unsettled conditions back to
most of the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1015 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- The Flood Watch has been cancelled for southside Hampton Roads
  & NE NC as the threat for heavy rain has ended.

- A Flood Warning remains in effect from the Elizabeth City area
  into southern Camden and central Currituck counties for
  lingering flooding from earlier heavy rain.

Coverage of showers and tstms as substantially diminished late
this evening. This activity was in advance of a cold front that
will push south of the local area overnight into Friday while
becoming stationary. Will maintain 20-30% PoPs over coastal NE
NC overnight and 20% or less elsewhere. Otherwise, expected
drier conditions to filter in from the N overnight. Partial
clearing and some drier air/lower dew pts will work into our NW
counties late, lows tonight drop into the mid 60s NW, with low-
mid 70s SE (where its stays humid with more clouds).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers/storms south on Fri, but dry north.

-Showers/storm chances increase Saturday as the front lifts back
 north.

Drying out for the northern half of the area Friday, with only
scattered shower and storm chances by Friday afternoon (over the
south). Partly sunny N and mostly cloudy S with high
temperatures mainly in the mid 80s (more comfortable N and
central where dew pts will be in the 60s).

An upper trough moving into New England looks to flatten out
later Friday while the area an high pressure off the Southeast
coast begins to gradually retrograde back westward slightly. The
front is forecast to lift back north into the southeastern
portion of the area and stall out into Saturday. The best rain
chances Friday night will be across south-central VA and NE
North Carolina in the vicinity of the boundary, then chances
spread back north on Saturday as the front shifts north. The
higher rain/storm chances on Saturday will be mainly south of
the I-64 corridor where likely PoPs remain in the forecast.
Highs Saturday in the low-mid 80s.

A positively tilted trough will start to dip down into the mid
Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as the upper ridge remains
centered off the SE coast. The stalled front won`t move very
much, but it does become a bit more diffuse on Sunday so
generally should see rain chances focus in the aftn/evening
rather than all day. Variably cloudy and a bit warmer with highs
in the mid 80s to around 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled with above normal rain chances.

- Humid with average temperatures fairly close to normal.

An upper trough will generally sit over the central part of the
country, while an upper ridge remains centered off the Mid Atlc
and SE coast. This pattern remains fairly consistent through
the extended period, keeping a moist SW flow aloft in place.
A nearly stalled frontal or sfc trough will be near or over the
region, with at least high chance PoPs each day, focused
primarily in the aftn/evening (40-60%). Variably cloudy, very
warm and humid through the period, with highs generally in the
mid 80s to near 90, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Thursday...

Showers and tstms will diminish/end over SE VA and NE NC after
02Z. Expecting dry conditions at all terminals overnight into
Friday morning as a cold front pushes south of the local area.
MVFR CIGS expected at ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY after 03z, while remaining
VFR at RIC.

Outlook: Mainly VFR/dry Friday over the north and central, with
MVFR CIGS lingering at ECG thru 18z. The boundary lifts back N
Saturday with showers and tstms scattered to likely for most
areas. Sunday will see scattered, mainly aftn/evening
showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front stalls just to the south of the local waters today,
with NE to E winds expected. Wind speeds will remain below SCA
criteria.

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue
through at least early next week, although afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are possible each day.

A cold front is crossing the waters early this morning, and winds
have become N-NW at 5-10 kt across the nrn waters, with light
westerly winds farther south. The front will stall across NC today,
and winds become NE at 10-15 kt after sunrise (and remain in that
range through much of the day). Occasional 20 kt gusts are possible
throughout the day, especially on the bay/Lower James. However,
these gusts don`t look to be frequent enough to warrant SCAs (local
wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds are below 10% today). Winds
become more easterly and diminish to ~10 kt this evening before
becoming SE or S on Saturday as the front lifts back N as a warm
front. Benign conditions are expected Sunday-Tuesday with sub-SCA
winds (the direction will be somewhat variable Sat night-Sun AM
before becoming S or SW from late Sun-Tue). Afternoon/evening
shower/storm chances continue through the period. SMWs will likely
be needed with the strongest storms, although widespread severe wx
is not expected.

A moderate rip risk continues for all beaches today. The moderate
rip risk continues for the nrn beaches this weekend, with a low rip
risk from VA Beach to the Atlantic beaches of eastern Currituck
County.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ERI