814
FXUS61 KAKQ 050106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
906 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast gradually settles south into the
western Atlantic through late this week. Heat and humidity build
over the region today through early next week. Daily chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms also
return today into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 850 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Showers will diminish across the region this evening.

An upper ridge extends from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas
this evening, with a trough across the Upper Midwest. At the
surface, high pressure is centered off the Southeast Coast, with
a dampening lee trough over the Piedmont. Showers and storms
have cooled temps into the 70s for most of the area with a few
low 80s still noted across NE NC where showers have been absent.
Expect lingering showers to continue near the Chesapeake Bay and
across the Piedmont over the next hour or two but coverage and
intensity will continue to diminish. Will be dry area-wide after
midnight with partly cloudy skies and lows in the lower to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Friday.

- Heat and humidity continue Saturday. Heat index values around
  100 are expected on the eastern shore, with heat indices in
  the 103-108F range west of the bay. Heat Advisories are likely
  to be needed for much of the area Saturday.

- Additional chances for late day showers and storms will exist
  Friday and especially Saturday.

The upper ridge axis remains from the Gulf Coast to near the
Carolina coast Friday into Friday night, with a surface trough
lingering in vicinity of the Piedmont. Hot and humid Friday with
highs in the mid to upper 90s (upper 80s/lower 90s toward the
coast). This combined with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s
will result in heat indices of 105-109F. A heat advisory has
been issued for most of the area aside from southern portions of
the Eastern Shore and Outer Banks Currituck. PW values increase
to 2.00-2.25" Friday into Friday night. However, the the upper
trough remains well NW of the region, so the only focal point
for convective initiation locally will be the lee-side trough.
Therefore, coverage should be limited and only loosely
organized. PoPs are mainly 30-40% NW to ~20% SE. Very warm and
humid Friday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

The upper ridge breaks down some by Saturday allowing the upper
trough and a weakening cold front to approach from the NW. PW
values potentially exceed 2.25". Additionally some stronger mid-
level flow approaches from the NW (25-35kt). This could result
in some better storm organization, which could result in some
stronger tstms, but the more likely threat from showers/tstms
will be heavy rain. The most favorable region for some locally
heavy rain appears to be across southern/SE VA and NE NC at this
time. Highs in the lower to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid
70s will likely result in heat indices of 105-109 E of the I-95
corridor to the coast, so heat advisories are again likely for
at least the eastern half of the area. Showers/tstms likely
linger into Saturday evening, before diminishing in coverage
overnight. Warm and humid with lows in the lower to mid 70s. The
weak front may push far enough E Sunday to allow some slightly
drier air to filter in from the NW, with slightly lower chances
of afternoon/evening showers/tstms, and mainly over the SE.
Highs Sunday will mainly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with
heat indices in the mid 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Near or slightly above normal temperatures, but very humid
  through the period. Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance
  for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms each day.

Not as hot through the period, but high temps will still be
near or slightly above normal ranging from the upper 80s to
lower 90s. It will still be very humid across the area, and with
lee troughs or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the
region, expect chances for mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms
each day. Heat indices will mainly range from the mid 90s to
lower 100s Mon through Wed. Warm and muggy nights with lows
ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 850 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals this evening after brief
restrictions associated with showers and storms. Lingering
precip will dissipate aob 04z with CIGs generally VFR. Guidance
does show the potential for a period of MVFR/IFR CIGs at SBY
late tonight but confidence is low. Did include at few hours of
BKN MVFR CIGs at SBY for a few hours around sunrise. S or SSW winds
have decreased to 5-10 kt and should continue to diminish
overnight. SW flow increases to around 10 kt by mid
morning through the afternoon. Expecting VFR to prevail on
Friday but increasing moisture will lead to SCT/BKN CU with
bases around 6kft. Chances for showers and storms increase from
the afternoon into the early evening (especially at RIC) but low
confidence in coverage and timing preclude any explicit mention
in the TAFs at this time.

A weakening and slow moving cold front settles into the region
Saturday. This will bring a higher chc (40-60%) of aftn/evening
showers/tstms. This front settles near the coast Sunday and
washes out, with a remnant boundary lingering over the area
Monday/Tuesday. The highest chances (30-40%) shift into SE VA/NE
NC Sunday, and then generally 30-40% inland and 15-30% toward
the coast Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 850 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued. Southerly winds
  remain elevated ahead of an approaching cold front Friday and
  Saturday.

- There is a moderate rip risk across area beaches Friday.

A convective boundary has pushed through the Bay, and brought
locally higher winds earlier this evening. This boundary is
weakening over the coastal waters now. Winds shifted to the E/NE
at 5-10kt in the lower Bay and are generally southerly 10-15kt
with gusts to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft with waves 1-2 ft
in the Bay. SSW winds shift to the SSE Friday aftn/evening and
will remain elevated, but generally sub-SCA, with the northern
coastal waters having the greatest chc for seeing marginal SCA
conditions Fri night. Similar conditions expected Sat, then
lighter winds expected Sunday.

A moderate rip current risk in place for all beaches on Friday
as the dominate wave direction becomes less shore-normal.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No record highs or record high mins were set today/July 4th.

Record High Temperatures Fri and Sat (July 5-6)

          7/5       7/6
- RIC  102/2012   105/1977
- ORF   98/2012   102/1881
- SBY  102/2012   102/2010
- ECG  100/2012    99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 4-6)

           7/5       7/6
- RIC    79/2012   80/2012
- ORF    80/1999   80/1999
- SBY    81/2012   77/2012
- ECG    77/2018   78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for MDZ021-022.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RHR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...AJZ/RHR
MARINE...AM/LKB
CLIMATE...AKQ