211
FXUS61 KAKQ 022350
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
750 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually settles off the coast tonight into
Wednesday. Seasonally hot but remaining dry on Wednesday, with
heat, humidity, and daily chances of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms return Independence Day into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 740 PM EDT Tuesday...

- Key Message: Dry, pleasant with below average temperatures tonight.

1024mb surface high pressure is centered from the Mid-Atlantic
to the Northeast this evening. Aloft, the flow is out of the N
to NW on the back-side of a trough offshore. Mostly clear skies
are noted on satellite with very pleasant temperatures and
humidity for early July. Surface high pressure gradually shifts
toward the New England coast tonight as an upper level ridge
builds from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Mostly clear and
comfortable with low temperatures ranging through the 60s, with
some upper 50s for favored cool locations over the Piedmont,
interior Coastal Plain, and the interior of the MD Eastern
Shore. Some patchy fog is forecast over portions of the Eastern
Shore for a few hours late tonight toward sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonally hot Wednesday and becoming more hot and humid
  Thursday and Friday.

- Rain chances return to the forecast for the afternoon into the
  evening on Independence Day and again on Friday. Best rain
  chances remain W-NW of the Richmond Metro area into the VA
  Piedmont.

High pressure settles offshore Wednesday as the upper ridge
becomes centered over the Southeast, with the ridge axis
extending NE across the Mid-Atlantic. Mostly sunny and remaining
dry Wednesday. High temperatures will return to near seasonal
averages ranging from around 80F/lower 80s along the coast (with
ESE flow) to the mid/upper 80s inland where the wind will shift
to S. Mostly clear and dry Wednesday night. Warmer and becoming
more humid toward sunrise as high pressure settles off the
Southeast coast. Forecast low temperatures range from the mid
60s to around 70F.

Hotter and more humid conditions will return Independence Day
with increasing SSW flow as the surface high becomes centered
off the Southeast coast. High temperatures range from the upper
80s/lower 90s along the coast, to the mid 90s inland. Dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70F during peak heating result in
heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. There is a
potential for widely scattered showers/tstms developing along
pre-frontal/lee-side trough Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain
chances are generally 20-40% for mainly late aftn/evening tstms
(highest PoPs NW of a Farmville-Richmond- Salisbury MD line).
Partly cloudy, warm and muggy/humid Thursday night with lows in
the low- mid 70s. Forecast highs Friday are similar to Thursday.
However, dewpoints are slightly higher and this could push heat
indices at or above 105F for central and SE VA and into NE NC.
There is a chc of afternoon showers/tstms with a lee side/pre-
frontal trough lingering over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity return and linger for Saturday
  into the first part of next week. Remaining a bit unsettled
  with a chance for mainly late day and evening showers and
  storms each day.

The upper ridge will initially be positioned from the Gulf
coast to the Carolinas Friday night, then slowly shifting E off
the SE coast as it slowly breaks down over the weekend. This
will pump hot and humid air back into the mid-Atlantic region,
while also keeping a series of upper troughs well off to our NW
through the weekend (over the upper midwest/northern Great
Lakes). Rather weak flow at the sfc with high pressure offshore
will be conducive to a general S-SW low level flow, but with
some afternoon seabreeze development possible.

Overall, highs look to average in the mid-upper 90s inland, and
90- 95F closer to the coast Saturday, and perhaps a few degrees
lower Sunday through Tuesday as a weakening cold front stalls
or washes out in the vicinity of the area. Have remained a
little below the typical high bias shown by NBM dewpoints, but
still expect them to be back in the low-mid 70s for the period,
which would yield heat indices in the 103-108F range Saturday
and in the 100-105 range on Sunday through Tuesday. As for PoPs,
expect daily chances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening
tstms (PoPs 20-40%), with the best chance in the piedmont and
perhaps with the seabreeze, although uncertainty remains high at
this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure is centered over New England as of 23z. This is
resulting in onshore flow with generally an E to ESE wind of
5-10kt. VFR at all the terminals early this evening as CU has
mostly dissipated with the loss of heating and only FEW/SCT
cirrus across the region. The wind becomes calm to very light
out of the SE tonight. Primarily VFR tonight under a mostly
clear sky. However, guidance continues to show the potential for
IFR vsby at SBY after midnight. Will go with prevailing IFR vsby
from 08-12z for SBY. There could also be some low stratus
accompanying the fog. Some guidance shows the potential for LIFR
or VLIFR vsby but confidence in coverage and timing of such a
scenario is low. Additionally, some shallow ground fog is
possible at PHF and perhaps ECG with the potential for brief
vsby restrictions. Will include an MVFR group at PHF where
experience suggests more fog than guidance typically shows.
Becoming VFR Wednesday shortly after sunrise for all terminals.
The high shifts off the coast Wednesday and the wind becomes S
inland and E to SE along the coast with speeds of 5-10kt.

VFR conditions will prevail most of the time Wednesday night
through Sunday. There is a potential for early morning shallow
ground fog/low stratus with increasing low-level moisture. This
will also lead to a chc for aftn/evening showers/tstms as a slow
moving boundary approaches from the NW.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Southeast/south winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt
Wednesday evening across the Chesapeake Bay.

-South winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the
coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening.

-A period of elevated southerly winds is possible this weekend with
Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

Afternoon sfc analysis shows strong high pressure over the NE
CONUS building down into the local area, its center gradually
shifting offshore. Latest wind obs indicate easterly winds at
5-10kt over most locations. At the mouth of the bay and lower
bay, winds are slightly higher at 10-15kt. Winds diminish
tonight to ~5kt before becoming E/SE 10-15 kt with a few gusts
up to 20 kt across the bay Wed afternoon into Wed evening. Winds
become S by midnight Wed night. Highest winds are expected to
be across the upper bay Wed evening into Wed night where several
gusts up to 20 kt are possible. Local wind probs continue to
indicate a chance for sustained 18kt winds during this time
period, but probs are generally limited at 20-40% in the upper
bay. S winds increase to 15-20 kt late Thu afternoon into Thu
evening across the coastal waters. Probs for gusts of 25kt in
the coastal waters are low (<15%), but cannot entirely rule out
SCAs. S winds become elevated late Fri through Sat evening with
low- end SCAs possible. Daily chances for afternoon/evening
storms are possible from Thu into early next week.

Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this
morning. Seas build to 3-4 ft Thu afternoon through Sat night. A
brief period of 4-5 ft seas is possible across the coastal waters
from Chincoteague to Cape Charles Light VA Thu evening. There is a
moderate rip risk across the S beaches today (due to onshore flow
and 3 ft waves) with a low rip risk across the N beaches. The rip
risk across the S beaches likely increases late this afternoon into
this evening as swell and wind direction become orthogonal to the
coastline with tides retreating. However, given the time of day (22-
00z), will keep the rip risk moderate. Have upgraded all beaches to
a moderate rip risk on Wed due to favorable swell and wind direction
orthogonal to the coastline and 2-3 ft waves.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RHR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/RHR
MARINE...AM/RMM