Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
617 FXAK67 PAJK 080719 CCA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Juneau AK 1119 PM AKDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/... Quick hits: -Quiet weather continues. -Clouds linger with some marine layer clouds returning tonight to parts of the northern half of SE AK. -Winds remain on the lighter side. -Inner channel marine winds will be 5 to 15 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots by Monday morning. Northern Lynn Canal could see wind speeds increase back to 10 to 15 knots Monday afternoon while elsewhere remains around 5 to 10 knots. Gulf winds will be light, increasing late Monday night to 15 to 20 knots along the front as the front tracks northward. 500mb ridging will stay in place over the panhandle during most of the short term forecast period. Surface high pressure in the gulf and general surface ridging over the panhandle will slowly weaken through Monday night. All this ridging means quiet weather continues into Monday. Clouds will be limiting factor for tomorrow`s afternoon temps, but expecting temps in the 60s to 70s, upper 70s for areas around Prince of Wales Island! Marine winds won`t be too bad, around 5 to 10 knots with isolated areas of 10 to 15 knots - seas around 1 to 3 feet. Late Monday night is when the front will approach the panhandle. During this time, PoPS will begin to increase. .LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/... Overview: Low pressure system enters the AK Gulf bringing an active weather pattern back to SE AK. Front moving in mid week producing moderate rainfall. Precip chances continue into the weekend with onshore flow and additional system tracking in. Surface low moves up from the SW into the western AK Gulf by Tuesday. The associated weather front should reach the panhandle coast by Tuesday evening. While the front doesn`t have a robust structure as depicted by latest model runs it does have a long fetch of moisture from the south as depicted by IVT values. This should produce periods of moderate rainfall with 24 hour rain totals of half an inch to up to an inch Tuesday and Wednesday. This values still with in typical range for this time of year so for now no major impacts anticipated. As the low weakens to an open wave trough late week followed by a ridge of high pressure the resulting on shore flow will keep post frontal shower activity going. The next system drops down over the Aleutians but weakens just as another stronger system moves in following a similar path. Beyond the weekend ensembles show the active, mostly wet pattern trucking on. && .AVIATION...VFR and some MVFR conditions continue for this afternoon as marine layer clouds have continued to break up more. Some areas are still holding onto clouds such as portions of the Icy Strait corridor and Yakutat as well as locations offshore. Some clouds are expected to return this evening but current thinking is that coverage may be reduced from previous nights. Headed into the latter half of the TAF period, conditions are expected to remain clear as high pressure starts to give way to a low entering the gulf as the TAF period comes to an end. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GJS LONG TERM....PRB AVIATION...SF Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau