


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
212 FXAK67 PAJK 061731 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 931 AM AKDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .UPDATE...Update to the Aviation Section to include the 18z TAFs. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 508 AM AKDT... SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery early this Sunday morning shows low pressure developing over the NW gulf and an occluding frontal system extending across the eastern gulf. The front is causing showers over the southern half of the panhandle so far with some traces as far north as Juneau, Hoonah, and Yakutat. Everywhere will see a wetting rain today as the front progresses northward. Model CAPE and CAA behind the front keeps some threat of thunderstorms in the forecast, particularly over the NE gulf later this afternoon and evening. Due to widespread showers and cloud cover, have decreased high temperatures across the region to about 60F. This trend continues heading into Monday. LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/ As of 326pm Saturday. Key messages: - Temperatures remain seasonable heading into next week. - Front bringing widespread rain to the panhandle to start next week. - Heavy rain still on track for far southern panhandle Monday into Tuesday, shorter duration. - More heavy rain potential late in the week. Details: Model spread has decreased regarding the track of the surface low on Monday which is responsible for directing a plume of moisture at the southern panhandle. This has lead to a less impactful solution becoming more likely with heavy rain lasting for a shorter period of time over Monday night into Tuesday, and overall lower 24 hr precipitation totals. Winds are still expected to increase in the southeastern gulf to fresh to strong breeze. Cooler 850 mb temperatures aloft will cause increased instability over the northeast gulf behind the front from Sunday, allowing for some thunderstorm potential from Yakutat Bay southeast to the Fairweather Grounds Monday afternoon. The rest of the panhandle will see light to moderate rain showers last through Tuesday. Through the middle of the week, weather will remain unsettled across the panhandle with onshore flow continuing to bring diminishing showers to the area through Wednesday with a break Wednesday night into Thursday as winds in the gulf shift out of the east with a strong low approaching the central gulf. Attention is now shifting to a heavy rain event later in the week with a plume of moisture with a longer fetch and flow orientation more perpendicular to the outer coast, in contrast to the early week system. A near gale force low is also expected to accompany this heavy rain with a near gale force front approaching the panhandle on Thursday. Stay tuned for further updates as we head into next week. AVIATION...VFR conditions continue while a downward trend is still ongoing. Most places are switching from VFR to MVFR cigs as the rain moves inland this morning. VIS drops to IFR have been noted across parts of the panhandle. Especially those areas where some heavier rain is falling. These drops though are short lived as most places are returning to MVFR/VFR VIS. Although there are a few places that are struggling to improve. Offshore, there is some clearing behind the initial band of rain that is expected to move into the Sitka area later this morning. This clearing will need to be monitored as it moves inland as some daytime heating mixed with wet grounds from the rain could help to drive some convection. The potential for convection is not high right now but will need to be monitored through the afternoon for any potential development. MARINE...Inside Waters: Increasing trend in SE winds Sunday morning as a front pushes in. Strongest winds on the inside are expected to be 15-20kt during the day, but some higher gusts are likely heading into the late afternoon and evening. A new low center approaching from the SW late Sunday night into Monday morning will cause winds to increase to small craft level (25kt) for Clarence Strait. As the low weakens and passes over the southern inner channels, expect winds to become variable. Outside Waters: A low center setting up over the NW gulf and an associated front are causing a barrier jet over the north central outside waters, INVOF Kayak Island. Buoy 46082 winds have increased to E 23kt as of 4am Sunday and are expected to tick up slightly more through the morning with seas following suit. SE winds will veer S-SW behind the front through the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms across the northern gulf this afternoon through the night. Even if lightning does not develop, convective showers can make their own gusty/erratic winds. Potential for thunderstorm shifts to the southern half of the gulf Monday evening with the new low center moving up. Again, gusty/erratic winds and choppy seas are all possible with those showers. Seas at the gulf buoys are reporting 4-6ft, with a S-SE swell with a period of around 17 seconds. Not expecting a big increase in seas with the Sunday front, building 6-9ft with the barrier jet/small craft area. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-644-651-652-661-664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ferrin LONG TERM....STJ AVIATION...SF MARINE...Ferrin Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau