212
FXAK67 PAJK 061731
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
931 AM AKDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.UPDATE...Update to the Aviation Section to include the 18z TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 508 AM AKDT...

SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery early this Sunday morning shows
low pressure developing over the NW gulf and an occluding frontal
system extending across the eastern gulf. The front is causing
showers over the southern half of the panhandle so far with some
traces as far north as Juneau, Hoonah, and Yakutat. Everywhere will
see a wetting rain today as the front progresses northward.
Model CAPE and CAA behind the front keeps some threat of
thunderstorms in the forecast, particularly over the NE gulf later
this afternoon and evening.

Due to widespread showers and cloud cover, have decreased high
temperatures across the region to about 60F. This trend continues
heading into Monday.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/ As of 326pm Saturday.
Key messages:
- Temperatures remain seasonable heading into next week.
- Front bringing widespread rain to the panhandle to start next
  week.
- Heavy rain still on track for far southern panhandle Monday into
  Tuesday, shorter duration.
- More heavy rain potential late in the week.

Details: Model spread has decreased regarding the track of the
surface low on Monday which is responsible for directing a plume
of moisture at the southern panhandle. This has lead to a less
impactful solution becoming more likely with heavy rain lasting
for a shorter period of time over Monday night into Tuesday, and
overall lower 24 hr precipitation totals. Winds are still expected
to increase in the southeastern gulf to fresh to strong breeze.
Cooler 850 mb temperatures aloft will cause increased instability
over the northeast gulf behind the front from Sunday, allowing for
some thunderstorm potential from Yakutat Bay southeast to the
Fairweather Grounds Monday afternoon. The rest of the panhandle
will see light to moderate rain showers last through Tuesday.

Through the middle of the week, weather will remain unsettled across
the panhandle with onshore flow continuing to bring diminishing
showers to the area through Wednesday with a break Wednesday night
into Thursday as winds in the gulf shift out of the east with a
strong low approaching the central gulf.

Attention is now shifting to a heavy rain event later in the week
with a plume of moisture with a longer fetch and flow orientation
more perpendicular to the outer coast, in contrast to the early
week system. A near gale force low is also expected to accompany
this heavy rain with a near gale force front approaching the
panhandle on Thursday. Stay tuned for further updates as we head
into next week.

AVIATION...VFR conditions continue while a downward trend is still ongoing.
Most places are switching from VFR to MVFR cigs as the rain moves
inland this morning. VIS drops to IFR have been noted across parts
of the panhandle. Especially those areas where some heavier rain is
falling. These drops though are short lived as most places are
returning to MVFR/VFR VIS. Although there are a few places that are
struggling to improve. Offshore, there is some clearing behind the
initial band of rain that is expected to move into the Sitka area
later this morning. This clearing will need to be monitored as it
moves inland as some daytime heating mixed with wet grounds from the
rain could help to drive some convection. The potential for
convection is not high right now but will need to be monitored
through the afternoon for any potential development.

MARINE...Inside Waters: Increasing trend in SE winds Sunday
morning as a front pushes in. Strongest winds on the inside are
expected to be 15-20kt during the day, but some higher gusts are
likely heading into the late afternoon and evening. A new low
center approaching from the SW late Sunday night into Monday
morning will cause winds to increase to small craft level (25kt)
for Clarence Strait. As the low weakens and passes over the
southern inner channels, expect winds to become variable.

Outside Waters: A low center setting up over the NW gulf and an
associated front are causing a barrier jet over the north central
outside waters, INVOF Kayak Island. Buoy 46082 winds have
increased to E 23kt as of 4am Sunday and are expected to tick up
slightly more through the morning with seas following suit. SE
winds will veer S-SW behind the front through the afternoon.
Slight chance of thunderstorms across the northern gulf this
afternoon through the night. Even if lightning does not develop,
convective showers can make their own gusty/erratic winds.
Potential for thunderstorm shifts to the southern half of the gulf
Monday evening with the new low center moving up. Again,
gusty/erratic winds and choppy seas are all possible with those
showers. Seas at the gulf buoys are reporting 4-6ft, with a S-SE
swell with a period of around 17 seconds. Not expecting a big
increase in seas with the Sunday front, building 6-9ft with the
barrier jet/small craft area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-644-651-652-661-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ferrin
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...Ferrin

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