Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
775 FXAK67 PAJK 042328 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 328 PM AKDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SHORT TERM.../ through Friday night / Overall the short range forecast is not seeing much change. The ridge of high pressure over the eastern and northern gulf remains in place. South of the gulf the vertically stacked low will persist and drift SW into the north Pacific. Widely scattered showers ( 20% or less ) will continue to impact portions of the northern panhandle into Friday. Southern panhandle, has a better sky clearing pattern so more sun and warmer temperature for the southern third. The northern portions will slowly dry out and warm into Friday. .LONG TERM...Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf remains in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing probability of rain & wind next week. High pressure ridge over the Eastern Gulf continues to expand Saturday with areas drying up from south to north. While persistent onshore flow around the northern half of the panhandle will keep cloud cover through Saturday, does not look ample enough to produce any substantial rainfall. Winds will remain mostly light to up to 10 knots with the exception of the Cape Spencer area and the northern Lynn Canal area, which will enhance up to around 20 knots. On Sunday and Monday, the ridge will strengthen with anticyclonic flow aloft strengthening as well. The result is a clearing of skies throughout the panhandle with temperatures in most areas hitting above 70 degrees. Naturally, typical sea breezes will develop, and areas around Point Couverden, Cross Sound, and Northern Lynn Canal will increase wind speeds in the afternoon. Otherwise, enjoy the calmer weather before clouds and potentially rainy and windy pattern sets in mid week. As for model preference for this forecast, while the NBM was used as a base for the forecast, blended preference towards a blend between the 12z GFS and 12z Euro. These models matched relatively closely to their ensemble counterparts, and offered increased confidence for a drier solution. One particular note for the far extended (day 6) is the potential for a windier system to move into the panhandle. EFI tables are beginning to show a shift of tales of 0 with 80% of members agreeing. What all this means is there is potential for higher than normal wind gusts for this time of year. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions continue across the panhandle with some occasional MVFR ceilings have been reported during the day today. Overall, conditions are expected to continue through the evening and overnight hours. Some marine layer is expected to develop during the overnight hours, especially across places that have seen lowered CIGs during the previous night and morning hours today. Otherwise, flying conditions should be fairly benign with the exception of potentially lowered ceilings and afternoon sea breezes. && .MARINE...No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 kt for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal, and ocean entrances. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM....NC AVIATION...SF Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau