792
FXAK67 PAJK 182204
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
204 PM AKDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Much quieter short range
forecast today as what is left of the atmospheric river that
affected the area yesterday is now mainly over Misty Fjords in a
weaker form. The rest of the panhandle is enjoying drier weather
with several breaks in the cloud cover (after the fog diminished
this morning).

Into Friday night, the forecast will mainly be influenced by a
short wave that will be moving NW through the eastern gulf as it
rotates around a stronger low in the south central gulf. Not only
will it have its own area of wind and rain to deal with, it will
also be dragging the remains of the atmospheric river back west
across the panhandle Friday into Friday night. This will result in
another period of rain for most of the panhandle as this feature
moves NW. However, the former atmospheric river will be much
weaker and moisture depleted by this point as the short wave
will have cut it off from its primary moisture source. It will
also be making steady progress NW so it will not be over an area
for an extended period of time. As for the rain with the short
wave itself, most of that will stay out over the Gulf waters, and
there is not much moisture associated with it anyways. As such
rainfall is expected to be light with total rainfall of less then
a half inch for most areas.

Wind wise, highest winds will be across the SE gulf and southern
panhandle as the short wave moves NW Friday. In the gulf waters
expect at most 25 kt winds while the southern inner channels will
likely top out at 20 kt. Inner channel areas farther north will
mostly stay lighter and will likely see northerly offshore winds
after late tonight as weak ridging along the coast mountains
interacts with the lows in the gulf to form a more northerly
pressure gradient through the northern inner channels.



.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/...500 mb low remains over
the AK Gulf until mid week when the pattern shifts to the east.
Main surface low over the SW Gulf keeps moving in rain bands over
SE AK. Expected the periods of rain with occasional clear breaks
in between to last into next week. As the main flow pattern
shifts east the surface low will also track eastward where it
moves in next wave of moderate rainfall. Due to the more easterly
track will not get the long fetch of moisture seen previously so
rain fall amounts not as high. Temps pick up some due to southerly
flow. Winds will be 15 kt or less for most of the long range.

&&

.AVIATION...Fine flying conditions this afternoon with better
than 3000/5 north of a line from Taku Inlet to Sitka. South of
there, marginal visual conditions with occasional CIGS less than
1000 ft. As the short wave currently producing rain over the
southern Panhandle shifts north, conditions over the northern half
will deteriorate, but should remain at or above 1000/3 for the
next 24 hours. To the south, little to no change in CIGS, but
precipitation should taper off overnight. Late night fog expected
to return over the southern half with impacts to early morning
aviation operations likely. Once the fog dissipates, scattered
shower activity may pick up again tomorrow afternoon. Light to mod
turbulence expected tomorrow for locations south of Icy Strait,
but no LLWS expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flooding issues are improving across the area.
Currently only the Chilkat is still above minor flood stage. All
the other rivers in the northern panhandle have fallen below minor
flood stage and continue to show diminishing trends. Southern
Panhandle water ways did show rises from the rainfall overnight,
but did not approach bankfull conditions (except for Falls Creek
near Petersburg which did get to bankfull but has since fallen
below that point once again). Except for the Chilkat, no other
flooding is expected with the lack of significant rainfall
expected through the next few days.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau