830
FXAK67 PAJK 061806
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1006 AM AKDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation discussion to include the 18z TAF
issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...High pressure remains over the Gulf this morning,
with marine stratus impacting parts of the outer coast and a low
level cloud deck across much of the northern panhandle as moisture
continues to move over the ridge axis. By the afternoon, the ridge
axis will finally be moving further to the W, encouraging more NW
flow into the N half of the panhandle, and resulting in increasing
breaks in the clouds and decreasing chances of precip, though a
few light showers may linger. Anticipate that clearing skies will
have largely taken over by Sunday, with dry weather across most
areas with the exception of Yakutat.

.LONG TERM...Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf
remains in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather.
Increasing probability of rain & wind mid week next week.

On Sunday and Monday, the previously entrenched ridge will
strengthen with anticyclonic flow aloft strengthening as well. The
result is a clearing of skies throughout the panhandle with
temperatures in most areas hitting above 70 degrees. Naturally,
typical sea breezes will develop, and areas around Point Couverden,
Cross Sound, and Northern Lynn Canal will increase wind speeds in
the afternoon. Otherwise, enjoy the calmer weather before clouds and
potentially rainy and windy pattern sets in mid week.

As for model preference for this forecast, while the NBM was used as
a base for the forecast, blended preference towards the 0z and
12z Euro. These models matched relatively closely to ensemble 500
mb heights. One particular note for beyond the drier period is the
potential for a windier system to move into the panhandle. EFI
tables are beginning to show a shift of tales of 0 with 80% of
members agreeing. What all this means is there is potential for
higher than normal wind gusts for this time of year. Furthermore,
moist, southwesterly flow hitting up against the northeast shore
will cause moderate rain for around two days mid week. Thinking
the 60th to 75th percentile of the NBM for rainfall due to closer
match with the Euro solution. While the Euro solution is a fair
bit wetter (75th to ~85th percentile of the NBM), tempering down
the forecast seemed appropriate. All in all what this translates
into is up to about 1 inch per day for Yakutat mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...This morning, the area is split in two by two very
different weather patterns.

Areas along and south of Frederick Sound have VFR conditions with
clear to mostly clear skies with winds on the lighter side. Going
forward, these conditions should continue through today, tonight,
and into tomorrow.

Areas north of Frederick Sound have a wide range of conditions
ranging from IFR to VFR. High-end MVFR to VFR conditions in the
north are mainly contained to Lynn Canal. IFR to MVFR conditions
are found along Icy Strait and south to near Frederick Sound, and
along the coast. Lowered conditions are mainly due to lowered
CIGs but there are some reports of rain that are causing brief
lowered VIS to around 2 to 5 SM. There are a couple of outliers to
all this, the Yakutat and Elfin Cover areas are seeing times of
LIFR conditions due to CIGs near 500 feet.

Going forward, as a ridge builds over the gulf, and leftover rain
should fade out and CIGs should improve. So overall improving
conditions are expected to high-end MVFR to VFR. There is some
evidence of brief lowered conditions overnight, but those
conditions would improve quickly around 15z to 18z tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help
diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 to
25 kt for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal,
and ocean entrances.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-644.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...GFS

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