Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
062 FXAK68 PAFC 150036 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 436 PM AKDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... It has been a rainy past couple of days across Southcentral Alaska. Yesterday, Anchorage saw 1.83 inches of precipitation fall, which ranks as the 6th highest one day total for July 13th on record. If you include Sunday`s rainfall thus far, that puts Anchorage`s two day total at 2.21 inches - the 7th greatest two day total on record for any two consecutive days of the year. Additional rain is possible through tonight, though accumulations should be much lighter. Southcentral is expected to remain in an unsettled pattern through at least midweek, with the upper low over western Alaska to make slower southeastward progress than previously forecast. Within southwesterly flow will be the passage of additional shortwaves across Southcentral, keeping rain chances in the forecast through at least Wednesday. Expect cooler conditions with highs in the 50s where cloud cover and rain persist, and highs in the 60s where any clearing occurs. The best chance for areas seeing sun tomorrow will be across the Copper River Basin while showers are expected to lift across the Kenai Peninsula into the Mat-Su Valleys. Yet another trough is forecast to move through Southcentral on Tuesday with another round of rain forecast for the region. BL && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A broad upper level low pressure system will loiter over southwest Alaska through most of the forecast period, resulting in overall cooler and wetter conditions. In addition, small craft winds and waves will continue over Bristol Bay this evening and will diminish by tomorrow morning. Wave heights are currently around 5-7 feet, but will subside as the evening and overnight progresses. Over the Bering, a shortwave low will provide a quick round of precipitation for the western and central Aleutians on Monday before exiting into the North Pacific. Behind the shortwave, a ridge of high pressure begins to build in over the western Bering Monday evening and slowly shifts eastward through Wednesday afternoon. Model guidance is currently struggling on the placement of the ridge over the central Bering that will have an impact of the features around it. To the east, the upper low over Southwest will either remain situated over the area or be pushed further inland towards Southcentral and the interior. To the west, a new low pressure system with ample moisture will either be kept west of the Aleutians/Bering or be east enough to start impacting the chain late Wednesday. -BS && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... The persistent upper level low over Southwest Alaska will slide slowly southeastward as a ridge of high pressure moves across the Aleutians toward the Mainland. As the upper level low moves into the eastern Gulf and an elongated front forms along Prince William Sound coastline, the continued likelihood that showers and cloudy conditions in Southcentral will persist through the weekend remains high. However, the greatest chance for steady rain showers is in the Cooper River Basin into the weekend as weak waves move through the area. The Aleutian ridge moving over the mainland will result in drying conditions and increasing temperatures across Southwest through the weekend. DJ && .AVIATION... PANC...The large low over southwest Alaska continues to send shortwaves through through the area. One of these shortwaves is tracking northward through Cook Inlet this afternoon and will continue to bring in periods of moderate rain and MVFR conditions until it passes through either late this afternoon or early evening. While areas farther south in Cook Inlet cleared out after the passage of this wave, it looks more likely for clouds to pack along the mountains in Anchorage and bring the chance for MVFR ceilings through the evening. Another shortwave will track up the Inlet this evening and bring another round of showers with MVFR potential late this evening into the overnight hours. Periods of gusty southerly winds will continue into Sunday. && $$