Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
173 FXAK68 PAFC 151226 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 426 AM AKDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Southcentral is expected to remain in an unsettled pattern through at least midweek, with the upper low over western Alaska to make slower southeastward progress than previously forecast. Within southwesterly flow will be the passage of additional shortwaves across Southcentral, keeping rain chances in the forecast through at least Wednesday. Expect cooler conditions with highs in the 50s where cloud cover and rain persist, and highs in the 60s where any clearing occurs. The best chance for areas seeing sun tomorrow will be across the Copper River Basin while showers are expected to lift across the Kenai Peninsula into the Mat-Su Valleys. Yet another trough is forecast to move through Southcentral on Tuesday with another round of rain forecast for the region. BL / rux && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... The upper level low over western Alaska tracks east towards Southcentral over the next few days. Multiple shortwaves will cycle over Southwest and allow rain showers to persist through Tuesday night, diminishing from west to east by Wednesday morning. High pressure building over the Bering Sea will push over Southwest by Wednesday, shifting to a bit of a drier pattern for mid-to-late week. Areas of patchy fog are possible under the ridge, primarily over the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea, as well as the Southwest Coast. The next system approaches the Western Aleutians late Wednesday night, bringing another round of winds and rain to the Aleutians. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... The persistent upper level low over Southwest Alaska will slide slowly southeastward as a ridge of high pressure moves across the Aleutians toward the Mainland. As the upper level low moves into the eastern Gulf and an elongated front forms along Prince William Sound coastline, the continued likelihood that showers and cloudy conditions in Southcentral will persist through the weekend remains high. However, the greatest chance for steady rain showers is in the Cooper River Basin into the weekend as weak waves move through the area. The Aleutian ridge moving over the mainland will result in drying conditions and increasing temperatures across Southwest through the weekend. DJ && .AVIATION... PANC... VFR conditions will persist through the day today before scattered rain showers return in the evening. Ceilings will periodically raise slightly above and below 5000 feet throughout the day. Shortwaves from an upper level low in the Southwest will result in periods of rain showers and VFR to MVFR conditions afterward into Tuesday. && $$