![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
247 FXUS63 KABR 040918 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 418 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal/cool temperatures, spotty rain showers and a few weak thunderstorms will persist across the area through the day today. - There is a 20% chance of mainly afternoon showers and weak thunderstorms Friday. - The active weather pattern of showers and thunderstorms will persist into the weekend, mainly focused over eastern SD into west central MN with around a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The surface weather map shows low pressure over eastern ND/northwestern MN and eastern SD, with a large area of high pressure set up from western MT through much of WY. The area of low pressure will focus over western MN by 21Z this afternoon, before shifting to southeastern MN/western WI by 06Z Friday. Normal high temperatures for the 4th of July are in the low to mid 80s. Cool and humid conditions are expected today, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s, or 10 to near 15 degrees below normal. Relative humidity values today will remain above 50 percent. While some short term CAMs do indicate the potential for low clouds, they are more scattered that originally expected. While severe weather is not anticipated today, a few thunderstorms will remain possible. With significant outdoor activities planned for today, the potential of lightning has been highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. We`ve also continued a lightning safety graphic on our webpage and social media accounts for folks to seek shelter in a building or hard-topped vehicle when lightning is around. Limited thunderstorms are expected, but can`t be ruled out today with our CAPE values below 500 J/kg (highest over eastern SD/western MN this afternoon). A more spotty/scattered look to the showers and thunderstorms is expected, ending west to east this evening as the surface low continues to exit east. Dry weather will return late tonight. 3-hourly flash flood guidance is below 2 inches for portions of the Missouri River valley from roughly Mobridge and Selby and Hovel, southwest through Stanley County and northwestern Jones County. Precipitable Water values range from near 1" from our southwesterly counties to closer to 1.3" over eastern SD and west central MN through the day, which is in the 50th to 75th percentile (or near to slightly above normal for this day climatologically) based on the SPC sounding climatology page. Plenty of moisture will be around, with a few stronger/more persistent showers or thunderstorms able to produce rainfall amounts of around 1" this afternoon. A 20 percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will return Friday afternoon, well behind the surface low over MI as a ridge of high pressure builds into western SD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Friday evening we are between systems as a low moves off to our east and a low/shortwave moves in from the west. Models vary a bit on what is going to happen over the weekend. The EC and Canadian have a shortwave move across the Dakotas Saturday and then have a weak low/strong shortwave come through Sunday lasting through Monday night. The NAM (through the end of its run) and the GFS have a low move across ND with the trough stretching south into SD through Sunday night. There is no second low/shortwave with these second two models. Then we stay in north to northwesterly flow aloft through the end of the period. While showers and storms are possible Friday evening through early Monday morning, accumulations are expected to be less than half an inch. NBM shows chances of more than a quarter of an inch in 72 hours (ending Monday morning) to be around 50% for areas along and east of the James River and less to the west. The best chances are Saturday evening into early Sunday morning with 30-55% PoPs (highest mainly east of the James River). Otherwise, chances max out around 30%. After Monday, chances for rain are minimal. Saturday and Sunday look to be the coolest days of the period with highs in the mid 70s to around 80. This is 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The rest of the period is expected to be around normal. Winds for the most part will be relatively calm with gusts only reaching 25 mph for a few hours Sunday and again on Thursday west river, and maybe reaching 20 mph to the east. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday at most sites except KATY where MVFR cigs are expected to move in during the morning. MVFR cigs/vsby are possible in heavier showers at other sites, as well. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Wise