844
FXUS63 KABR 192007
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
307 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance for scattered thunderstorm activity this
  evening. A few storms could become strong across central South
  Dakota, which is highlighted by a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).

- Additional chances of precipitation (20 to 40 percent) Saturday
  night through Tuesday (mainly afternoon and evening activity).

- Confidence is increasing for hot temperatures returning by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

An upper level shortwave currently over North Dakota will slowly
drift to the south across the CWA tonight and early Saturday,
leaving a more northerly flow in its wake Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night.

At the surface, still seeing a few showers across the far
southwestern part of the CWA left over from a complex of showers and
thunderstorms that moved through earlier. Cloud cover has cleared
across the north and east, which has allowed for temperatures to
rise into the 80s, resulting in some higher instability, with MUCAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Shear is not quite as impressive, so
cannot rule out some scattered thunderstorm development this
evening, but do not expect any severe weather. CAMs do appear to
support this. Will see a similar set up on Saturday with very warm
conditions. MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg will develop across the
eastern half of the CWA. Shear is once again weak, so just expect
some scattered non-severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon and
evening hours. With the loss of daytime heating, the convective
chances will diminish during the overnight hours.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High
temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s. Lows Saturday night
will be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Sunday morning the upper level low is centered over NE and IA and
will continue to move south and weaken through the day Sunday
lasting into Tuesday. Wednesday, a low moves down from Canada into
MN. The area will remain in northerly flow through the end of the
period.

Sunday and Monday afternoons look to be the best for widespread rain
chances (20 to 40%) with showers and non-severe storms possible.
Wednesday will also have a chance (around 30%) for far eastern SD
and west central MN as that low moves across. The rest of the period
is expected to be dry. Temperatures continue to show an upward trend
through next week with highs reaching into the 90s by Thursday west
river and Friday for areas west of the James River. Winds still look
to stay around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of showers and thunderstorms will slowly track southward
across portions of south central South Dakota through the early
afternoon hours. Periods of MVFR vsbys will be possible with the
precipitation. There are additional chances (20 to 40 percent) of
thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, but they
will be of a scattered nature, so did not mention them in the TAFs
at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
area through midday Saturday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin