165
FXUS63 KABR 200555 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance for scattered thunderstorm activity this
  evening. A few storms could become strong across central South
  Dakota, which is highlighted by a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).

- Additional chances of precipitation (20 to 40 percent) Saturday
  night through Tuesday (mainly afternoon and evening activity).

- Confidence is increasing for hot temperatures returning by Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The aviation discussion has been updated below for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Storms thus far confined to north central South Dakota this
afternoon. Aside from minor adjustments to POPs to cover current
trends, extended sky cover for smoke into Saturday according to
RAP/HRRR analysis.

See below for update to aviation discussion...

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

An upper level shortwave currently over North Dakota will slowly
drift to the south across the CWA tonight and early Saturday,
leaving a more northerly flow in its wake Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night.

At the surface, still seeing a few showers across the far
southwestern part of the CWA left over from a complex of showers and
thunderstorms that moved through earlier. Cloud cover has cleared
across the north and east, which has allowed for temperatures to
rise into the 80s, resulting in some higher instability, with MUCAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Shear is not quite as impressive, so
cannot rule out some scattered thunderstorm development this
evening, but do not expect any severe weather. CAMs do appear to
support this. Will see a similar set up on Saturday with very warm
conditions. MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg will develop across the
eastern half of the CWA. Shear is once again weak, so just expect
some scattered non-severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon and
evening hours. With the loss of daytime heating, the convective
chances will diminish during the overnight hours.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High
temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s. Lows Saturday night
will be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Sunday morning the upper level low is centered over NE and IA and
will continue to move south and weaken through the day Sunday
lasting into Tuesday. Wednesday, a low moves down from Canada into
MN. The area will remain in northerly flow through the end of the
period.

Sunday and Monday afternoons look to be the best for widespread rain
chances (20 to 40%) with showers and non-severe storms possible.
Wednesday will also have a chance (around 30%) for far eastern SD
and west central MN as that low moves across. The rest of the period
is expected to be dry. Temperatures continue to show an upward trend
through next week with highs reaching into the 90s by Thursday west
river and Friday for areas west of the James River. Winds still look
to stay around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through
this forecast period. Some light fog is possible around the KATY
area later this morning, but not confident in including mention of
it at this time. There will be a scattered thunderstorms that
develop during the afternoon hours, but they are anticipated to be
widely scattered and confidence remains low right now to include
mention of it in the forecast.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Vipond