858
FXUS63 KABR 182326
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30 to 60 percent chance of precipitation Friday, with the highest
  chances across central South Dakota. A few strong to severe
  thunderstorms are possible across central South Dakota, which has
  been highlighted by a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).

- Additional chances of precipitation (20 to 40 percent) on
  Saturday and Sunday.

- Confidence is increasing on slightly warmer temperatures by midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

No changes to the forecast. See update to the Aviation discussion
below...

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The region will be between an upper level trough to the east and a
ridge to the west through the near term period. Will see some decent
shortwave energy track across the CWA Friday and Friday night.

At the surface, high pressure will exit the region to the east
tonight as low pressure and its associated frontal boundary reaches
the Western High Plains by Friday morning. This boundary will become
the focus for precipitation, beginning as early as Friday morning.
By the afternoon hours, MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and bulk
shear of 25 to 40 knots develop across central South Dakota, which
may aid in some strong to severe storms. SPC has highlighted this
area with a Marginal Risk, mainly for the potential for convective
high wind gusts. May see a few lingering showers into Friday night,
but the thunderstorm activity should come to an end with the loss of
daytime heating.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s. High
temperatures on Friday will be in the 80s. Lows Friday night will be
in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Saturday morning we still have that upper level low over far
southeast SD and northeast NE. Deterministic models show the low
circulating over NE/SD/IA during the day Saturday and moving
slightly south to the corner of NE/IA/KS/MO on Sunday before
weakening. This will leave us in northerly flow as we are between a
trough and a ridge. An area of high pressure moves in from the north
along the MT/ND/SD border Wednesday, balanced by a low pressure area
to our east. A ridge tries to move into the area during the day
Thursday but never quite makes it, leaving us in northerly flow.

The best chance for rain will be Saturday and Sunday with some
possible afternoon showers/storms. Both days have 25 to 40% chances
for precip. Storms are not expected to become severe. Otherwise,
dry conditions are expected through the end of the period.

We continue to expect a warming trend through the term to slightly
above average temperatures. Highs of upper 80s to around 90 are
expected by Thursday. Winds look to remain around normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. Chances for storms increase for
KPIR/KMBG late in the period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Connelly