085
FNUS75 KABQ 151754
FWSABQ

Spot Forecast for Philmont Ranch...Cimarron Fire
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1154 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Monsoon high, centered over northwest NM late this morning, will
shift just enough this afternoon to allow for scattered thunderstorms
to develop over the Cimarron Range very near or over the fire location
early this afternoon. Storm motion is forecast to be to the southeast
around 5 mph but could easily become light and variable once a stronger
storm updraft gets established and forces the steering flow around it.
Increasing west winds aloft late this afternoon, however, will push
any additional showers or storms off to the east at around 20 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloud during the
                    afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of Pcpn......40 percent.
Max Temperature.....77-81.
Min Humidity........20-24 percent.
20 Foot Winds.......West winds 4 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    to 35 mph are expected near showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing Height.......13500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 knots.
Max Vent Rate.......Very good/107048 knot-ft at 1100 local.
Ventilation Trend...Very good/107048 knot-ft around mid morning and
                    fair/46000 knot-ft by mid afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms in the early evening.
Chance of Pcpn......20 percent.
Min Temperature.....48-52.
Max Humidity........65-69 percent.
20 Foot Winds.......North-northwest less than 7 mph shifting
                    to terrain driven less than 5 mph after 2200
                    hours. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    showers and thunderstorms in the early evening.
Ventilation Trend...Poor/12500 knot-ft by early evening and
                    poor/2000 knot-ft by late evening.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of Pcpn......70 percent.
Max Temperature.....74-78.
Min Humidity........25-29 percent.
20 Foot Winds.......Terrain driven less than 7 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds to 35 mph expected near
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......13000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 knots.
Max Vent Rate.......Good/79907 knot-ft at 1300 local.
Ventilation Trend...Good/67693 knot-ft around mid morning and
                    good/63000 knot-ft by mid afternoon.

$$

For more information and situational awareness graphics, please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/abq/forecasts-fireweather-dss

Forecaster...33
Requested by...Casey Meyers
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418110.0/ABQ
.DELDT 07/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0