308
FXUS65 KABQ 051133 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
533 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible both today and
Saturday across eastern New Mexico. Additionally, heavy rainfall
may lead to flash flooding. The greatest flash flood potential
will be across the burn scars within the Sacramento Mountains.
Drier air will overtake the area on Sunday, limiting thunderstorm
potential but fire weather concerns will return across northwest
New Mexico due to the dry and windy conditions. A strong backdoor
cold front will plow through the eastern plains and gaps of the
Central Mountain Chain Sunday night. A very strong east canyon
wind is expected in the Rio Grande Valley. This front will also
replenish moisture across the area, resulting in an active shower
and thunderstorm period next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms ongoing across east central NM this
morning will continue through sunrise before slowly diminishing in
intensity thereafter, though they may not completely end. These
storms are developing in an area of strong upslope, elevated
instability and 30-40kt of effective bulk shear behind the
backdoor cold front. Thus, these storms will continue to pulse up
and down, becoming severe at times with large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Heavy rain will also be a concern, especially if
storms train over the same area.

Meanwhile, the backdoor front has pushed through the gaps of the
Central Mountain Chain with gusts up to 35 mph or so noted at the
ABQ Sunport. This is pushing low level moisture to the west this
morning, though much of it west of the Rio Grande Valley will mix
out this afternoon. Though widespread low clouds will exist
across the eastern plains this morning, they should largely
dissipate this afternoon, allowing for enough daytime heating to
result in another round of showers and thunderstorms. Storms are
expected to develop across the South Central Mtns, including the
burn scars surrounding Ruidoso, early this afternoon. A Flood
Watch remains in effect for this area. By mid afternoon, another
round of thunderstorms will develop across northeast NM and these
storms will track southeastward through the plains through the
evening. These storms will again have the potential to be severe
with large hail and damaging wind gusts. The Hermits Peak Calf
Canyon burn scar will likely see some rain this afternoon, but the
strongest storms look to stay east of the area.

Moisture will slosh back to the west tonight, likely resulting in
an east canyon wind once again in the Rio Grande Valley. On
Saturday, the dry air will mix a bit farther eastward, allowing
for a dryline to set up across eastern NM. Strong to severe storms
are expected to develop along the dryline by mid to late
afternoon. Though the dry air should overtake the area around the
HPCC burn scar, the Sacramento Mtn burn scars will not be as
lucky, and more, potentially heavy, rain is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Storms will wane by the midnight hour Saturday night. Stronger
northwest flow on Sunday will allow the drier air to mix further
south and east on Sunday afternoon, limiting the potential for
precipitation. Rather, breezy to windy conditions are expected. A
backdoor cold front will begin to push into northeast NM in the
afternoon. Strong northeast winds are expected behind it and an
increase in moisture will make this the favored spot for any
thunderstorms on Sunday. The front will continue to plow south
across the plains and west through the gaps of the Central
Mountain Chain Sunday night. A very strong gap wind is likely in
the Rio Grande Valley, with gusts potentially topping 50-60 mph.
This front will replenish moisture across much of the CWA, and
additional moisture will advect into NM as the remnants of Beryl
move northward across Texas through the early week period. Showers
and thunderstorms on Monday will continue to favor the northern
mountains and much of eastern NM, but Tuesday will be a day to
watch. Widespread storms are expected as PWATs near the 75th
percentile for the date. Thus, storms with heavy rainfall appear
likely and burn scars will be especially susceptible to flooding.
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to continue through
the remainder of the week. Aside from the heavy rainfall
potential, there will also be a concern for occasional severe
storms throughout the week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Much of the overnight convection has moved into the Texas
Panhandle. While a few more showers or tstms are possible this
morning, much of the activity is expected this aftn when another
round of showers and thunderstorms are expected near and east of
the Central Mt Chain. Some storms may be severe with wind gusts in
excess of 50kt and large hail as well as heavy rainfall. Storms
may linger into the overnight hours across southeast NM. Otherwise,
MVFR to localized IFR cigs have developed across much of eastern
NM. These low clouds will persist through approximately 16-18Z
before diminishing, though brief MVFR cigs/vsby will be possible
with the thunderstorm activity. Another east canyon wind is
possible at KABQ tonight with gusts near 30kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
today and Saturday across western NM as drier air and breezy
conditions return to the area. On Sunday, critical fire weather
conditions will be possible across the Northwest Plateau with
elevated to near-critical conditions across the remainder of the
area along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. Northwest winds will
increase further and between 6 and 10 hours of single digit RH is
also likely. Despite the Northwest Plateau seeing rainfall over
the last week or two, ERC percentiles are still approaching 90-95
percent. A Fire Weather Watch may be warranted for Sunday
afternoon. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will impact
eastern NM today and Saturday, and much of the area next work
week. Humidity values will certainly trend up next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  53  93  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  86  44  85  44 /   0   0   5   0
Cuba............................  87  51  86  52 /   0   0  10   0
Gallup..........................  91  44  92  47 /   0   0   5   0
El Morro........................  87  50  86  52 /   0   0  10   5
Grants..........................  89  46  90  47 /   0   0  10   5
Quemado.........................  89  52  89  53 /   0   0  20  10
Magdalena.......................  88  61  89  60 /  10  20  40  10
Datil...........................  88  55  87  54 /   0   0  30  10
Reserve.........................  93  53  92  53 /   0   0  40  20
Glenwood........................  98  62  96  63 /   5  20  40  30
Chama...........................  79  43  79  46 /   0   5  10   0
Los Alamos......................  82  58  83  61 /  20  20  20   5
Pecos...........................  79  54  84  54 /  50  40  30   5
Cerro/Questa....................  79  44  80  44 /  30  30  20   5
Red River.......................  70  43  71  42 /  40  40  30   5
Angel Fire......................  75  39  76  34 /  50  50  30   5
Taos............................  84  48  85  46 /  20  30  10   5
Mora............................  76  49  80  50 /  60  50  30   5
Espanola........................  88  59  90  56 /  20  20  10   5
Santa Fe........................  84  58  84  56 /  40  30  20   5
Santa Fe Airport................  87  56  88  53 /  20  20  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  63  91  63 /  20  20  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  65  93  64 /   0  10  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  63  94  62 /   0  10  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  63  93  63 /   5  10  10   5
Belen...........................  94  61  96  59 /   5  20  10   5
Bernalillo......................  93  63  93  62 /  10  10  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  94  60  94  58 /   0  10  10   5
Corrales........................  93  62  94  61 /   5  10  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  94  60  95  59 /   0  10  10   5
Placitas........................  90  61  90  61 /  10  20  20   5
Rio Rancho......................  92  63  93  62 /   5  10  10   5
Socorro.........................  96  66  97  65 /  10  20  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  57  85  59 /  20  20  20   5
Tijeras.........................  87  59  87  60 /  20  20  20   5
Edgewood........................  85  57  87  56 /  30  20  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  55  88  50 /  30  30  20   5
Clines Corners..................  77  54  83  54 /  40  40  30   5
Mountainair.....................  84  57  87  57 /  20  20  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  85  56  88  57 /  30  40  40  10
Carrizozo.......................  88  63  89  66 /  50  30  50  20
Ruidoso.........................  78  56  81  60 /  70  50  70  20
Capulin.........................  75  52  82  53 /  70  60  30  10
Raton...........................  79  53  86  52 /  60  60  20   5
Springer........................  80  55  88  53 /  60  60  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  75  53  82  54 /  60  60  30   5
Clayton.........................  78  58  85  60 /  50  40  20  20
Roy.............................  74  57  83  56 /  70  70  20  10
Conchas.........................  80  62  90  62 /  60  70  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  80  61  87  61 /  40  60  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  79  62  91  64 /  30  60  10  10
Clovis..........................  77  62  87  65 /  50  50  20  20
Portales........................  78  63  88  66 /  50  50  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  82  64  88  65 /  30  60  20  10
Roswell.........................  91  67  94  69 /  60  40  30  10
Picacho.........................  84  62  86  63 /  60  40  60  10
Elk.............................  81  59  83  62 /  80  40  70  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34