Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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383 FXUS65 KABQ 041722 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1122 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Warmer and drier today, with the exception of locales in the northeastern and east central plains where a backdoor front will cool highs a few degrees. The aforementioned front will give rise to another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring the central mountains. A slight downtick in storms is expected Saturday. Flash flooding will be possible both days on recent burn scars. Temperatures will rise a few to several degrees areawide Sunday amongst much drier air. A stronger backdoor front will descend the eastern plains and surge westward, bringing the potential for strong canyon winds Sunday night through Monday morning to the Albuquerque metro. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Happy Independence Day! Fortunately, this 4th of July looks to be rather quiet weather-wise, especially as compared to the last few weeks. With an upper high parked over the CA coast, northwest flow over NM will usher in much drier air from the Rio Grande Valley westward today. Dewpoints will plummet into the teens and 20s allowing for several hours of single digit relative humidities. This is quite the change from the last week or so. As a result, shower and thunderstorm activity will be shut down altogether in these areas. Meanwhile, a convectively aided backdoor front will push into northeast NM this morning and gradually sag southward across the remainder of the plains through the afternoon. The amount of dry air aloft should generally limit shower and thunderstorm activity along and east of the Central Mountain Chain, but a few storms remain possible thanks to moist upslope flow. Best chances for storms look to be across southeast NM, but couldn`t rule out a stray shower or storm near the burn scars in the South Central Mtns. Confidence is too low to issue a Flood Watch though. Now, shortly after midnight, mother nature may have some fireworks of her own across eastern NM. Winds behind the aforementioned front will veer around to the east, and the front should push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions at both ABQ and SAF. It also looks like there will be a moisture gradient that sets up near a line from KLVS to KTCC which is coincident with weak 850-700mb speed convergence and elevated instability. Thus, it is looking increasingly likely that overnight showers and thunderstorms will impact northeast and east central NM. Storms may develop as far west as the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar, but better chances will be to the east. Nonetheless, as we know, it only takes one storm to cause problems. Will hold off for now on a Flood Watch for tonight for HPCC, but the day shift will continue to monitor closely. Any precipitation that develops should wane by the noon hour on Friday. The backdoor front, precipitation and persistent cloud cover will keep temperatures much cooler across eastern NM on Friday, with high temps in the 70s and low 80s common. As such, it may be a late start for thunderstorm activity in the afternoon, but it is expected near and east of the Central Mountain Chain. At minimum, a Flood Watch will be needed for the South Central Mtn burn scars on Friday afternoon and early evening, but can`t rule out HPCC as well. A strong or severe storm will also be possible with decent instability and around 30kt of 0-6km bulk shear. The amount of convection will depend on how much of the cloud cover erodes during the daytime hours across the plains, and hence how much instability can develop with daytime heating. The NAM keeps it more stable across the plains (but still a few storms develop along the Central Mtn Chain), but the GFS and ECMWF suggest more convection, especially through the evening. Meanwhile, from the Rio Grande Valley westward, any moisture that pushed through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain with the front, should largely mix out during the afternoon. Couldn`t rule out a few storms near the moisture gradient in the afternoon, but the bulk of the activity should be along and perhaps east of the Central Mtn Chain. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Strong dome of high pressure will center itself on the CA/NV border Saturday, allowing a regime of dry northwesterly flow to take hold across NM. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms is possible, especially across portions of central NM. A storm or two along the NM/TX border may become strong to severe given high CAPE values, but lackluster shear will keep storms disorganized and more pulse in nature. Much drier air enters the arena on Sunday, pushing all locales west of the central mountains into the low double to single digits for minimum RH. The dry northwesterly flow aloft will bring breezy to locally windy conditions across the northwest plateau. The downsloping component of winds elsewhere will allow temperatures to soar, sparking the potential need for heat highlights. Meanwhile, a stronger backdoor front will descend the eastern plains, surging southward and westward throughout the day. The front will squeeze through the canyon gaps Sunday night, bringing a blustery east canyon wind to the central valleys. Guidance`s magnitude of these winds is debatable, with the GFS continuing to hint towards a sustained wind speed in excess of 40 kts. While that seems a little overcooked from a synoptic perspective (no low to the west to draw it westward), an impressive density gradient might be all the incentive the winds need. Tds at KABQ Sunday night go from a lip-chapping 18F to 50F in 12 hours, which is certainly something to watch as model temporal resolution improves. Either way, wind highlights by way of advisory or warning will likely be needed in future updates. Much cooler temperatures areawide will follow in the wake of the front on Monday, with locales seeing a reduction of around 5F to 15F compared to Sunday`s readings. After drier conditions on Sunday, the front will recharge moisture and give rise to showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, favoring the high terrain and its adjacent lowlands. The upper high will continue its slow saunter eastward, arriving to the NV/UT border on Tuesday and setting up a regime of northerly flow aloft. Thunderstorm coverage will spread westward and allow for motions to bring storms down the central valley. The subtle rise in pressure heights from the high`s position will bring daytime highs up a few degrees nearly areawide but temperatures will still be below normal for early July most areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist across western NM, but a backdoor front will bring increasing moisture and areas of low stratus to eastern NM overnight into Friday morning. MVFR cigs are forecast to develop at KLVS and KTCC overnight, with low probabilities for IFR conditions. Improvement Friday morning will be slow. The backdoor front will create a gusty east canyon/gap wind at KABQ and KSAF overnight, but winds are forecast to remain below KABQ Airport Weather Warning threshold at this time. Isolated convection will impact the southeast and northeast periphery of our area this afternoon/evening, but forecast to remain away from our TAF sites. KROW would be the most likely of the group to be impacted by convection this afternoon, but very low probability. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Drier and warmer conditions are expected for much of the area today. Single digit relative humidity values are expected for most areas from the Rio Grande Valley westward, with durations longer than 6 hours across the Northwest Plateau and lower elevations of the West Central Mountains. A few breezes will also be noted this afternoon, which will result in elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. Fortunately, some of these areas have received substantial rainfall over the last week. Meanwhile, a backdoor front will slide down the plains today and thru the gaps of the Central Mtn Chain tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Central Mtn Chain tonight and again Friday afternoon/evening. Yet another round in these areas is expected on Saturday afternoon. Another surge of drier air within northwest flow will arrive on Sunday, dropping precipitation chances once again, and resulting in 7 to 10 hours of single digit RH west of the Rio Grande Valley. Locally windy conditions may also result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Yet another backdoor front Sunday night combined with moisture from the remnants of Beryl moving northward will increase humidity and chances for precipitation early next week while the upper high remains over CA and the Great Basin. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 93 54 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 88 44 86 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 88 51 87 51 / 0 0 5 5 Gallup.......................... 93 49 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 88 53 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 91 49 89 49 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 90 53 87 53 / 0 0 10 10 Magdalena....................... 91 61 87 61 / 0 0 20 20 Datil........................... 89 56 86 56 / 0 0 10 10 Reserve......................... 94 54 93 53 / 0 0 20 10 Glenwood........................ 98 66 97 66 / 10 5 20 20 Chama........................... 82 45 80 45 / 0 0 10 5 Los Alamos...................... 87 60 80 58 / 0 5 20 10 Pecos........................... 89 55 78 54 / 0 20 40 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 44 78 43 / 0 10 40 20 Red River....................... 75 43 70 43 / 5 20 40 30 Angel Fire...................... 79 40 73 40 / 5 20 40 30 Taos............................ 89 50 82 50 / 0 5 20 20 Mora............................ 85 50 75 48 / 10 20 40 30 Espanola........................ 94 58 87 58 / 0 5 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 88 59 80 57 / 0 10 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 60 84 57 / 0 10 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 64 88 63 / 0 5 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 64 89 63 / 0 0 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 64 91 62 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 64 90 63 / 0 0 5 5 Belen........................... 99 60 93 61 / 0 0 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 97 64 90 62 / 0 0 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 98 60 91 59 / 0 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 97 62 91 61 / 0 0 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 98 60 92 60 / 0 0 5 10 Placitas........................ 93 63 87 61 / 0 0 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 96 64 90 62 / 0 0 5 5 Socorro......................... 100 67 95 67 / 0 0 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 58 82 57 / 0 0 20 10 Tijeras......................... 91 60 84 59 / 0 0 20 10 Edgewood........................ 91 58 82 56 / 0 5 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 55 83 54 / 0 10 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 89 54 76 53 / 5 20 30 20 Mountainair..................... 91 57 83 56 / 0 5 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 92 57 84 56 / 0 5 40 20 Carrizozo....................... 96 65 87 63 / 10 10 50 20 Ruidoso......................... 88 58 77 56 / 20 20 70 30 Capulin......................... 81 52 76 53 / 20 20 40 30 Raton........................... 86 54 79 54 / 20 30 30 30 Springer........................ 90 55 79 54 / 20 20 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 86 53 74 53 / 10 30 30 30 Clayton......................... 83 57 79 57 / 0 30 20 30 Roy............................. 86 57 74 57 / 10 40 30 50 Conchas......................... 93 62 81 61 / 0 50 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 93 61 78 60 / 5 40 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 93 61 83 60 / 0 60 20 40 Clovis.......................... 95 63 81 62 / 20 50 30 40 Portales........................ 96 64 80 62 / 20 50 30 40 Fort Sumner..................... 97 65 80 63 / 0 40 20 40 Roswell......................... 103 71 88 70 / 10 30 40 30 Picacho......................... 96 65 82 62 / 10 20 50 30 Elk............................. 93 61 80 58 / 20 20 70 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...11