Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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207 FXUS65 KABQ 021734 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1134 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Rounds of showers and storms will be possible across northern and central New Mexico through Wednesday. With above average moisture, an increased risk of flash flooding will exist, especially for recent burn scars. Drier conditions will take hold on Thursday with only isolated storms possible across the southernmost portion of the forecast area. Temperatures cool on Friday thanks to a backdoor front and an increase in storm coverage is expected along and east of the central mountains. A warming trend will take hold into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A shortwave over northwestern NM is tapping into elevated instability, allowing storms to re-generate near Farmington. Guidance indicates that this instability will subside within the next few hours, but it does not have a good handle on the current conditions so this activity will likely continue for several more hours. Training storms may produce some localized instances of flash flooding. High pressure over east TX will shift eastward today, placing the monsoonal moisture plume directly over central NM. The trough over the Rockies will scour out some moisture across northern NM, limiting convective activity there this afternoon. Elsewhere, it will be similar to yesterday with rounds of showers and storms. There isn`t a defined shortwave feature moving over the state so the overall coverage and intensity of storms will be slightly lower, limiting the flash flood risk. That being said, it won`t take much to generate flash flooding over the Sacramento Complex so a Flash Flood Watch was issued for that area again today. Localized instances of flash flooding are possible in the central and southern Rio Grande Valley and the southwest mountains again today, but storms moving at 10-20 mph will help keep 1"+ rainfall totals very localized. Hi-res guidance is indicating that there may be a severe storm or two in Union county during the late afternoon where shear will be sufficient to organize updrafts coming off of the Johnson and Bartlett Mesas. A backdoor front could help to keep shower activity going across the northeast through the overnight hours. The monsoonal moisture plume will continue moving eastward Wednesday, focusing storms along and east of the central mtn chain. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed once again for the Sacramento complex for tomorrow afternoon and evening. A shortwave will graze the state Wednesday, bringing drier air into western areas, but its interaction with moisture across the east will likely generate a few to several severe storms. Initially, large hail will be the main threat, transitioning to more of a wind threat in the evening as storms cluster together. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Drier air works to temper PWATs moving into the long term as temperatures peak Thursday afternoon. Dry northwest flow will help to keep storm potential localized to the southernmost portion of the CWA, where only isolated coverage is expected. A backdoor front will dive down the eastern plains Thursday night into Friday, surging southward and westward towards the central mts. This is likely to create a moderate gap wind in the middle RGV overnight. The influx of moisture will help prime the environment for another round of showers and thunderstorms, this time favoring the central mts and eastward. Flow aloft will turn northwesterly again on Sunday as an upper high begins its march towards the Desert Southwest. This will allow for conditions to dry out somewhat to start the week, the isolated storms staying localized to the high terrain. Upslope flow on Monday will keep afternoon storms in the forecast across the central mts. Temperatures across the east will cool a few degrees while west of the central mts sees a degree or two of warming. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although MVFR conditions are likely near sct/num storms this afternoon/evening. Highest chances of impacts among our TAF sites are at KAEG, KLVS and KROW. Low probabilities of thunderstorm impacts at KFMN and KTCC. Winds will generally be light outside of thunderstorm outflow, which could gust as high as 40-50kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Widespread showers and storms today and tomorrow will favor locations along and south of I-40. Drier air enters from the northwest tonight, decreasing precipitation chances there. A few severe storms are possible across northeastern NM this afternoon and again tomorrow. There is high confidence that ridging will develop over The Great Basin late week, pushing dry air into the region from the northwest. A few showers and isolated storms are possible in the far southern portion of the forecast area with hot and dry conditions prevailing elsewhere. A backdoor front is progged to bring more moisture in from the east and potentially gusty east winds through the gaps of the central mtn chain Friday night. Scattered showers and storms will favor eastern NM over the weekend into early next week while the west remains dry. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 90 60 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 85 49 87 46 / 5 0 5 0 Cuba............................ 84 56 87 55 / 20 5 20 0 Gallup.......................... 86 55 90 52 / 10 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 80 57 84 55 / 40 30 10 0 Grants.......................... 83 56 88 52 / 60 30 10 0 Quemado......................... 82 58 85 57 / 60 30 20 0 Magdalena....................... 82 63 84 62 / 90 40 40 0 Datil........................... 79 58 84 58 / 80 40 30 0 Reserve......................... 85 56 90 55 / 80 30 30 5 Glenwood........................ 91 67 93 66 / 60 40 30 10 Chama........................... 79 48 80 47 / 20 5 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 80 62 82 61 / 40 10 30 0 Pecos........................... 84 56 85 58 / 50 20 30 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 48 80 46 / 20 10 30 0 Red River....................... 72 46 72 46 / 30 10 30 0 Angel Fire...................... 77 42 77 42 / 30 10 30 0 Taos............................ 84 52 85 50 / 20 10 20 0 Mora............................ 81 52 81 52 / 40 20 40 0 Espanola........................ 88 61 89 58 / 30 5 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 83 61 84 60 / 40 10 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 61 88 58 / 40 10 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 88 67 89 66 / 40 30 30 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 67 91 65 / 30 30 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 67 93 64 / 30 30 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 90 67 92 65 / 40 20 10 0 Belen........................... 91 65 93 62 / 50 40 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 91 67 92 65 / 30 20 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 91 63 93 61 / 40 40 10 0 Corrales........................ 91 65 93 64 / 30 20 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 91 62 93 62 / 40 40 10 0 Placitas........................ 87 66 89 64 / 30 20 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 89 67 92 65 / 30 20 10 0 Socorro......................... 91 69 93 66 / 60 40 30 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 61 84 61 / 30 30 20 0 Tijeras......................... 85 63 87 62 / 40 30 20 0 Edgewood........................ 85 61 87 58 / 40 20 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 57 87 54 / 40 30 20 0 Clines Corners.................. 82 57 82 57 / 40 30 30 5 Mountainair..................... 85 61 86 59 / 50 40 30 5 Gran Quivira.................... 86 60 86 58 / 50 40 50 5 Carrizozo....................... 90 67 88 66 / 60 40 50 10 Ruidoso......................... 84 60 82 61 / 60 40 80 20 Capulin......................... 83 58 82 56 / 60 30 50 10 Raton........................... 89 58 87 54 / 40 30 30 5 Springer........................ 91 59 89 55 / 30 20 30 5 Las Vegas....................... 83 56 82 55 / 40 20 30 5 Clayton......................... 91 63 85 62 / 50 40 40 20 Roy............................. 88 61 84 58 / 40 30 40 10 Conchas......................... 96 67 91 64 / 30 40 30 10 Santa Rosa...................... 91 66 88 63 / 40 40 30 5 Tucumcari....................... 97 67 92 66 / 20 50 30 10 Clovis.......................... 97 70 93 69 / 20 50 30 20 Portales........................ 98 71 94 70 / 20 40 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 95 70 92 68 / 30 40 30 10 Roswell......................... 101 75 99 74 / 30 40 30 20 Picacho......................... 91 68 89 67 / 50 40 70 20 Elk............................. 89 64 87 64 / 60 40 70 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...11