Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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308 FXUS65 KABQ 051133 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 533 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible both today and Saturday across eastern New Mexico. Additionally, heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding. The greatest flash flood potential will be across the burn scars within the Sacramento Mountains. Drier air will overtake the area on Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential but fire weather concerns will return across northwest New Mexico due to the dry and windy conditions. A strong backdoor cold front will plow through the eastern plains and gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Sunday night. A very strong east canyon wind is expected in the Rio Grande Valley. This front will also replenish moisture across the area, resulting in an active shower and thunderstorm period next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms ongoing across east central NM this morning will continue through sunrise before slowly diminishing in intensity thereafter, though they may not completely end. These storms are developing in an area of strong upslope, elevated instability and 30-40kt of effective bulk shear behind the backdoor cold front. Thus, these storms will continue to pulse up and down, becoming severe at times with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Heavy rain will also be a concern, especially if storms train over the same area. Meanwhile, the backdoor front has pushed through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain with gusts up to 35 mph or so noted at the ABQ Sunport. This is pushing low level moisture to the west this morning, though much of it west of the Rio Grande Valley will mix out this afternoon. Though widespread low clouds will exist across the eastern plains this morning, they should largely dissipate this afternoon, allowing for enough daytime heating to result in another round of showers and thunderstorms. Storms are expected to develop across the South Central Mtns, including the burn scars surrounding Ruidoso, early this afternoon. A Flood Watch remains in effect for this area. By mid afternoon, another round of thunderstorms will develop across northeast NM and these storms will track southeastward through the plains through the evening. These storms will again have the potential to be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. The Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar will likely see some rain this afternoon, but the strongest storms look to stay east of the area. Moisture will slosh back to the west tonight, likely resulting in an east canyon wind once again in the Rio Grande Valley. On Saturday, the dry air will mix a bit farther eastward, allowing for a dryline to set up across eastern NM. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the dryline by mid to late afternoon. Though the dry air should overtake the area around the HPCC burn scar, the Sacramento Mtn burn scars will not be as lucky, and more, potentially heavy, rain is possible. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Storms will wane by the midnight hour Saturday night. Stronger northwest flow on Sunday will allow the drier air to mix further south and east on Sunday afternoon, limiting the potential for precipitation. Rather, breezy to windy conditions are expected. A backdoor cold front will begin to push into northeast NM in the afternoon. Strong northeast winds are expected behind it and an increase in moisture will make this the favored spot for any thunderstorms on Sunday. The front will continue to plow south across the plains and west through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Sunday night. A very strong gap wind is likely in the Rio Grande Valley, with gusts potentially topping 50-60 mph. This front will replenish moisture across much of the CWA, and additional moisture will advect into NM as the remnants of Beryl move northward across Texas through the early week period. Showers and thunderstorms on Monday will continue to favor the northern mountains and much of eastern NM, but Tuesday will be a day to watch. Widespread storms are expected as PWATs near the 75th percentile for the date. Thus, storms with heavy rainfall appear likely and burn scars will be especially susceptible to flooding. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to continue through the remainder of the week. Aside from the heavy rainfall potential, there will also be a concern for occasional severe storms throughout the week as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Much of the overnight convection has moved into the Texas Panhandle. While a few more showers or tstms are possible this morning, much of the activity is expected this aftn when another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected near and east of the Central Mt Chain. Some storms may be severe with wind gusts in excess of 50kt and large hail as well as heavy rainfall. Storms may linger into the overnight hours across southeast NM. Otherwise, MVFR to localized IFR cigs have developed across much of eastern NM. These low clouds will persist through approximately 16-18Z before diminishing, though brief MVFR cigs/vsby will be possible with the thunderstorm activity. Another east canyon wind is possible at KABQ tonight with gusts near 30kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected today and Saturday across western NM as drier air and breezy conditions return to the area. On Sunday, critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the Northwest Plateau with elevated to near-critical conditions across the remainder of the area along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. Northwest winds will increase further and between 6 and 10 hours of single digit RH is also likely. Despite the Northwest Plateau seeing rainfall over the last week or two, ERC percentiles are still approaching 90-95 percent. A Fire Weather Watch may be warranted for Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will impact eastern NM today and Saturday, and much of the area next work week. Humidity values will certainly trend up next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 92 53 93 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 86 44 85 44 / 0 0 5 0 Cuba............................ 87 51 86 52 / 0 0 10 0 Gallup.......................... 91 44 92 47 / 0 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 87 50 86 52 / 0 0 10 5 Grants.......................... 89 46 90 47 / 0 0 10 5 Quemado......................... 89 52 89 53 / 0 0 20 10 Magdalena....................... 88 61 89 60 / 10 20 40 10 Datil........................... 88 55 87 54 / 0 0 30 10 Reserve......................... 93 53 92 53 / 0 0 40 20 Glenwood........................ 98 62 96 63 / 5 20 40 30 Chama........................... 79 43 79 46 / 0 5 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 82 58 83 61 / 20 20 20 5 Pecos........................... 79 54 84 54 / 50 40 30 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 44 80 44 / 30 30 20 5 Red River....................... 70 43 71 42 / 40 40 30 5 Angel Fire...................... 75 39 76 34 / 50 50 30 5 Taos............................ 84 48 85 46 / 20 30 10 5 Mora............................ 76 49 80 50 / 60 50 30 5 Espanola........................ 88 59 90 56 / 20 20 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 84 58 84 56 / 40 30 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 56 88 53 / 20 20 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 63 91 63 / 20 20 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 65 93 64 / 0 10 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 63 94 62 / 0 10 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 63 93 63 / 5 10 10 5 Belen........................... 94 61 96 59 / 5 20 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 93 63 93 62 / 10 10 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 94 60 94 58 / 0 10 10 5 Corrales........................ 93 62 94 61 / 5 10 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 94 60 95 59 / 0 10 10 5 Placitas........................ 90 61 90 61 / 10 20 20 5 Rio Rancho...................... 92 63 93 62 / 5 10 10 5 Socorro......................... 96 66 97 65 / 10 20 30 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 57 85 59 / 20 20 20 5 Tijeras......................... 87 59 87 60 / 20 20 20 5 Edgewood........................ 85 57 87 56 / 30 20 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 55 88 50 / 30 30 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 77 54 83 54 / 40 40 30 5 Mountainair..................... 84 57 87 57 / 20 20 30 10 Gran Quivira.................... 85 56 88 57 / 30 40 40 10 Carrizozo....................... 88 63 89 66 / 50 30 50 20 Ruidoso......................... 78 56 81 60 / 70 50 70 20 Capulin......................... 75 52 82 53 / 70 60 30 10 Raton........................... 79 53 86 52 / 60 60 20 5 Springer........................ 80 55 88 53 / 60 60 20 5 Las Vegas....................... 75 53 82 54 / 60 60 30 5 Clayton......................... 78 58 85 60 / 50 40 20 20 Roy............................. 74 57 83 56 / 70 70 20 10 Conchas......................... 80 62 90 62 / 60 70 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 80 61 87 61 / 40 60 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 79 62 91 64 / 30 60 10 10 Clovis.......................... 77 62 87 65 / 50 50 20 20 Portales........................ 78 63 88 66 / 50 50 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 82 64 88 65 / 30 60 20 10 Roswell......................... 91 67 94 69 / 60 40 30 10 Picacho......................... 84 62 86 63 / 60 40 60 10 Elk............................. 81 59 83 62 / 80 40 70 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...34