Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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053 FXUS65 KABQ 052028 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 228 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 227 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Threat of locally heavy rain and strong storms remains across eastern NM today and Saturday afternoon. Burn scar flash flooding and the threat for a few severe storms will be present. Dry northwesterly winds fill in across western NM to the Rio Grande Valley. Dryness and winds increase to a degree to allow for critical fire weather concerns in the Northwest Plateau Sunday. Temperatures reach a peak Sunday as well, with highs in Roswell nearing the 105F mark. A strong backdoor cold front surges through eastern NM bringing a high likelihood for high wind gusts through the gaps of the central mountain chain Sunday night into Monday morning to parts of Albuquerque. Winds taper off thereafter with daily rounds of afternoon storms favoring the mountains each afternoon before moving over surrounding lower elevations. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 227 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A replenishment of low-level moisture followed a cold front that reached through the gaps of the central mountain chain last night. Dewpoints in the 50s this morning at Albuquerque have already fallen to the low 40s as much drier northwesterly flow aloft mixes out this moisture. Deeper moisture remains riding up the east slopes of the central mountain chain this afternoon, and the afternoon`s first round of thunderstorms has initiated over the Sangre de Cristo`s and Sacramento Mountains. Mean H7-H5 northwesterly winds of 15-20 kts are taking storms southeastward over the adjacent highlands. SBCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and bulk shear 30-35 kts is prompting a marginal risk for a storm or two to become severe off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains today. Slower storm motions further south will allow cells currently developing over the burn scars by Ruidoso to produce locally heavy rainfall and threaten flash flooding and debris flows. The limiting factor for both of these is drier air aloft embedded within the northwesterly flow. So far, this has inhibited the first batch of updrafts east of Raton in the Sangre de Cristo`s, but subsequent updrafts since are overcoming this dry air. Thunderstorm activity will track to the I-40 corridor over eastern NM by 6pm to 8pm MDT with continued showers and an isolated thunderstorm remaining possible over the eastern plains overnight. Another east canyon wind event looks likely in Albuquerque and Santa Fe, but currently looks to be less intense than the 34kt peak gust observed at the ABQ Sunport last night. Drier northwesterly flow advances further into NM Saturday shunting moisture further southeast. This will significantly reduce afternoon storm chances over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, leaving the Sacramento`s still in play for scattered to numerous afternoon storms developing on the ridge line. Storm motions will be faster for storms over the Sacramento Mountains however, and this will limit the residence time of storms over any one location, reducing the risk of flash flooding somewhat. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 227 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The long term period begins with northwesterly flow rounding the eastern periphery of a 598dm H5 high over central CA bringing more drier air over New Mexico. Temperatures across the eastern plains continue to considerably trend warmer with some lower elevation areas south of I-40 reaching the 100F mark. Roswell in particular is forecast to reach 104F. This drier, warmer and windier weather pattern will be short lived as a an upper level disturbance moving down the Rockies will send down a potent backdoor cold front into eastern NM Sunday evening. Strong winds and a sudden drop in temperatures will accompany this frontal boundary, alongside a significant uptick in low-level moisture. The strong density gradient between this airmass and the much drier airmass ahead of it lends credence to the MEX guidance advertising 39kt winds surging through the gaps of the Sandia/Manzano`s into ABQ Sunday night through Monday morning. A High Wind Watch may be necessary as we get closer to this event. The front surges to the AZ border Monday with high temperatures falling 15F-20F across eastern NM relative to Sunday`s forecast highs. Afternoon storms Monday will favor the central mountain chain, and any activity across eastern NM will likely be inhibited by mid-level capping. The upper high remains planted over the Great Basin through the rest of the week with northerly flow aloft over NM. Low-level moisture will remain in place across the forecast area with daily rounds of afternoon storms favoring initiation over the high terrain before tracking southward over surrounding lower elevation areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The low cloud ceilings that filled in across eastern NM behind last night`s backdoor cold front are steadily breaking up this hour. Expect to see continued improving flight categories at areas around b/w KRTN to KTCC to KCVN over the next hour or so. Dry air punches through western NM to the Rio Grande Valley which will act to subdue any precipitation chances there. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor initiation along the east slopes of the central mountain chain near 19Z before tracking southeastward over the highlands and eastern plains late today and this evening. Outflow from these storms will reinvigorate a westerly push of the surface frontal boundary through the gaps of the central mountain chain this evening, producing another east canyon wind at KSAF and KABQ gusting upwards of 30kts at KABQ. Low clouds and possibly fog will develop over a wide swath of the eastern plains again tonight into Saturday morning, expect another round of IFR/MVFR ceilings to result from this. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Drier northwesterly flow will continue to push further into NM through Sunday. Daily rounds of afternoon storms will favor the eastern slopes of the central mountain chain today and Saturday before tracking southeastward over the adjacent highlands and plains. The driest, warmest and windiest conditions favoring critical fire weather conditions will occur Sunday afternoon. The Northwest Plateau including Farmington will see the most widespread critical fire weather conditions. This will be short lived as a potent backdoor cold front brings in much cooler air with a significant uptick in moisture following it. No fire weather conditions are expected thereafter through the rest of next week as abundant low level moisture remains. Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain of central and western NM will be favored before they move over surrounding lower elevations. Locally heavy rainfall and the threat of flash flooding will result. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 52 91 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 87 43 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 50 86 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 43 90 46 93 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 48 86 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 45 90 47 92 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 50 88 52 90 / 0 0 5 5 Magdalena....................... 60 89 60 93 / 10 30 10 5 Datil........................... 54 87 56 90 / 5 0 5 5 Reserve......................... 53 94 52 96 / 5 20 10 10 Glenwood........................ 66 98 66 100 / 20 30 20 10 Chama........................... 45 80 46 83 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 58 84 59 87 / 10 10 0 5 Pecos........................... 55 83 56 88 / 40 10 5 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 81 43 83 / 30 10 0 20 Red River....................... 42 73 44 75 / 30 10 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 40 76 40 78 / 50 20 5 20 Taos............................ 49 85 47 88 / 30 5 0 5 Mora............................ 49 82 51 85 / 50 10 10 20 Espanola........................ 58 91 55 94 / 20 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 58 85 58 88 / 30 10 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 88 56 91 / 20 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 92 65 96 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 94 63 97 / 5 5 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 96 61 99 / 5 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 95 63 98 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 60 96 58 99 / 5 5 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 63 95 62 98 / 5 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 59 95 57 99 / 5 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 63 96 62 99 / 5 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 60 96 58 99 / 5 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 61 90 62 94 / 10 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 63 95 63 98 / 5 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 65 97 64 100 / 10 20 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 85 59 89 / 10 10 5 0 Tijeras......................... 58 88 60 92 / 10 10 5 0 Edgewood........................ 55 88 55 92 / 20 10 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 89 51 93 / 20 10 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 53 83 54 87 / 40 20 10 5 Mountainair..................... 55 87 56 91 / 20 20 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 55 87 56 92 / 20 40 10 5 Carrizozo....................... 63 90 65 96 / 30 40 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 56 81 61 88 / 40 70 20 10 Capulin......................... 52 81 52 81 / 40 30 10 30 Raton........................... 54 85 51 88 / 50 10 10 20 Springer........................ 56 87 52 90 / 50 10 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 53 82 53 86 / 50 20 10 10 Clayton......................... 58 85 60 86 / 30 30 10 20 Roy............................. 57 83 55 88 / 50 30 10 20 Conchas......................... 61 90 60 95 / 60 20 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 60 87 59 93 / 70 30 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 60 90 64 94 / 40 20 10 0 Clovis.......................... 62 89 66 97 / 30 20 10 5 Portales........................ 63 90 66 99 / 30 20 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 62 90 65 98 / 60 30 10 0 Roswell......................... 69 94 71 104 / 60 30 10 0 Picacho......................... 63 87 63 97 / 50 60 10 5 Elk............................. 59 85 61 95 / 40 70 20 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24