Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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665 FXUS65 KABQ 060911 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 311 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 304 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Thunderstorms today will favor the eastern and southern portion of the forecast area. Rich moisture will be capable of localized heavy rainfall, enhancing the risk of burn scar flash flooding. A storm or two may become strong to severe. Active weather continues on Sunday as much drier air and gusty winds bring critical fire weather conditions to northwest New Mexico. A backdoor front will bring the potential of strong east winds to Albuquerque Sunday night. Rich moisture will return Monday, bringing the potential for multiple rounds of afternoon thunderstorms and subsequent burn scar flash flooding through the end of the work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 304 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Storms across northeast and east central NM continue to regenerate early this morning with abundant moisture in place and a weak upper level disturbance grazing NE NM. These storms should continue through the morning hours and may occasionally become strong or briefly severe with hail and gusty winds given 500 J/Kg MLCAPE and around 25kt of effective bulk shear. Meanwhile, the east canyon wind that pushed through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain earlier tonight has waned, but did push low level moisture westward through the Rio Grande Valley. Dry northwest flow will again mix out this moisture in the RGV and likely points further east than yesterday, setting up a dryline across portions of eastern NM. If storms can develop on the dryline this afternoon, they should become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will again form over or near the South Central Mountains in the vicinity of the burn scars. Most CAMs suggest the heaviest precipitation will be east of the burn scars, but given continue southeasterly upslope through at least mid afternoon and uncertainty that the moisture will mix out thereafter, went ahead with a Flood Watch for the area. That said, there is considerably less certainty today as compared to yesterday that flooding will occur. All storms should diminish this evening and overnight convection is not anticipated. Stronger dry northwest flow on Sunday will allow moisture across much of the area on Sunday, limiting convection significantly. Flood watches will not be needed. Rather, dry and breezy to windy conditions will return to central and western NM, while really hot temperatures return elsewhere. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for the Roswell area as temperatures soar above 105 degrees. A backdoor cold front will begin to push into NE NM during the afternoon. If storms do form, this would be the favored area. Gusty northeasterly winds are expected behind the front. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 304 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The backdoor front that raced down the eastern plains will surge westward Sunday evening, pushing through the canyon gaps. Incredible dry air will be in residence west of the central mts, creating an impressive density gradient between the RGV and the east central highlands of the central mts. This will set the stage for strong canyon winds across the central valleys, including ABQ, Sunday night into Monday morning where gusts could reach 45 to 50 kts below Tijeras Canyon. Moisture will be recharged behind the front across the eastern plains, reinvigorating thunderstorm chances. High temperatures on Monday will be markedly cooler, with most locales seeing reductions of 10F to 20F compared to Sunday`s readings. Moisture will be further enhanced into Tuesday, bringing PWATs above normal most areas. This will create the potential for an increased burn scar flash flooding threat on Tuesday. The upper high will meander towards the Four Corners on Wednesday, allowing moisture to be drawn up its eastern periphery, continuing the daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms along the central mts and eastward through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Another round of showers and thunderstorms have erupted across northeast NM late this evening, while the initial round moves south of KROW. This new round of thunderstorms may be strong or severe as it continues to push southward across the plains through the overnight hours. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall limiting visibility will be possible. Much of this activity should wane by 15Z. Meanwhile, easterly wind gusts at KABQ and KSAF will be likely for a few more hours. An Airport Weather Warning is in effect for KABQ for gusts up to 40kt through 09Z. Widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings and patchy fog will continue to develop across the eastern plains tonight into Saturday morning, gradually dissipating during the late morning. Low clouds may also impact KSAF. Another round of thunderstorm activity is expected on Saturday afternoon focused across southern and eastern areas once again, though coverage may not be as great as Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 304 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of western NM as dry and breezy conditions develop. Storms remain possible across eastern areas. On Sunday, stronger northwest winds are expected, allowing much of the moisture across the area to mix out. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Northwest Plateau and a Fire Weather Watch is now in effect. The recent stretch of single digit RH the last few days will have allowed the fine fuels to dry out and more than 6 hours of single digit RH is expected again today and Sunday. A backdoor cold front will surge south and west Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, which will bring a strong gap wind to the Rio Grande Valley and replenish moisture across all areas. Thus, an active shower and thunderstorm period is on tap for much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 94 53 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 86 45 87 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 88 50 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 92 44 95 50 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 87 51 88 54 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 90 44 93 52 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 88 51 91 55 / 0 0 5 5 Magdalena....................... 88 59 93 59 / 30 5 5 5 Datil........................... 87 53 89 55 / 5 0 5 5 Reserve......................... 93 52 96 55 / 10 0 10 5 Glenwood........................ 96 62 99 66 / 20 5 10 10 Chama........................... 80 44 82 45 / 0 0 5 5 Los Alamos...................... 83 61 86 57 / 10 0 5 5 Pecos........................... 84 54 88 53 / 20 0 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 46 82 43 / 10 0 20 30 Red River....................... 72 41 72 43 / 10 5 30 30 Angel Fire...................... 76 34 77 41 / 10 5 20 30 Taos............................ 85 44 87 50 / 5 0 10 20 Mora............................ 81 49 83 49 / 10 0 20 20 Espanola........................ 90 56 93 56 / 5 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 85 55 88 57 / 10 0 5 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 52 92 57 / 10 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 63 94 63 / 10 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 64 97 64 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 60 99 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 62 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 96 60 99 61 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 94 61 97 63 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 95 58 98 60 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 95 60 98 62 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 96 59 99 61 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 90 61 93 62 / 10 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 94 63 96 63 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 97 66 102 65 / 20 10 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 59 88 57 / 10 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 88 60 91 59 / 10 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 87 58 91 57 / 10 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 51 92 54 / 20 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 83 55 88 53 / 20 0 5 10 Mountainair..................... 88 58 91 56 / 20 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 88 57 91 56 / 20 5 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 89 66 96 63 / 40 10 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 81 60 88 56 / 60 10 10 10 Capulin......................... 83 53 80 51 / 20 20 30 40 Raton........................... 86 53 84 53 / 20 10 20 40 Springer........................ 88 53 89 55 / 20 10 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 82 53 85 53 / 20 0 10 20 Clayton......................... 87 60 82 57 / 20 20 10 30 Roy............................. 84 58 85 57 / 20 10 10 30 Conchas......................... 91 63 94 61 / 20 5 5 30 Santa Rosa...................... 88 63 93 60 / 20 5 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 90 65 93 61 / 20 10 0 30 Clovis.......................... 89 65 96 63 / 30 20 5 20 Portales........................ 90 64 98 63 / 30 20 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 89 65 98 64 / 30 10 0 20 Roswell......................... 95 68 106 69 / 20 10 0 10 Picacho......................... 87 65 97 61 / 70 10 0 10 Elk............................. 85 62 94 58 / 70 10 5 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ101. Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...34