Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
818 FXUS65 KVEF 021129 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1206 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A dangerous long-duration heat wave is on the way to the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin. Excessive Heat Warnings go into effect beginning Wednesday and Thursday and continue into next week. Expect dry weather and minimal cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night. Midnight satellite loop showed clear skies areawide. Surface obs showed light winds and very warm temperatures. The low level moisture that was in Mohave County 24 hours ago had been flushed out, as evidenced by surface dewpoints 10 to 30 degrees lower. This leaves only one concern - heat. A northern stream trough will move away to the east today, allowing Pacific high pressure to nose in. Temperatures will rise a degree or two today from yesterday and then a few more degrees Wednesday, kicking off the worst of the well-advertised heat wave. No changes planned to the Excessive Heat Warning. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday. The hot ridge is forecast to be centered along the West Coast Thursday, then model ensembles are in good agreement that it will slowly become centered over Nevada Saturday through Monday. Preceding the ridge will be a dry north-northwest flow over our region with very little potential for any moisture to work its way in. This is the hottest synoptic pattern that we see and this is reflected in the NBM forecast high temp of 117 in Las Vegas Sunday and Monday...which would tie our all-time record high that we have reached five other times. Although this is not a certainty, there is a 56 percent probability that Las Vegas will reach 117 degrees during this time, so there is no good reason to adjust this downward simply because it is a fairly rare occurrence. Death Valley should be about 10 degrees higher...around 127. The NBM indicates a 25 percent probability that Furnace Creek could reach 130 degrees. 115- 119 degrees can be expected from Laughlin to Lake Havasu during this time. There is no indication of a break in the heat for our region through the middle of next week among the medium range ensembles. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Expect diurnal trends today with light northeasterly winds setting up late-morning below 10 kts, light southeasterly winds in the mid-afternoon, and light southwesterly winds after sunset. No operationally significant cloud cover expected through the TAF period. Expect temperatures to exceed 100 degrees between 18Z and 06Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and southeastern California...Expect diurnal trends today with speeds less than 12 kts across the forecast area. KBIH will breeze from the northwest through the morning, briefly from the southeast in the afternoon, then will return northwest at sunset. KDAG will be westerly this morning with brief easterly winds in the afternoon before returning westerly after sunset. Gusty southwesterly winds expected at KIFP and KEED in the afternoon with speeds to 20 kts. No operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Morgan LONG TERM...Adair AVIATION...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter