451
FXUS65 KVEF 021355
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
655 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A dangerous long-duration heat wave is on the way to the
Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin. Excessive Heat Warnings go
into effect beginning Wednesday and Thursday and continue into next
week. Expect dry weather and minimal cloud cover.
&&


.UPDATE...Added a CLIMATE section with record max and warm min
temperatures.
&&


.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night. Midnight satellite loop
showed clear skies areawide. Surface obs showed light winds and very
warm temperatures. The low level moisture that was in Mohave County
24 hours ago had been flushed out, as evidenced by surface dewpoints
10 to 30 degrees lower. This leaves only one concern - heat. A
northern stream trough will move away to the east today, allowing
Pacific high pressure to nose in. Temperatures will rise a degree or
two today from yesterday and then a few more degrees Wednesday,
kicking off the worst of the well-advertised heat wave. No changes
planned to the Excessive Heat Warning.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

The hot ridge is forecast to be centered along the West Coast
Thursday, then model ensembles are in good agreement that it will
slowly become centered over Nevada Saturday through Monday.
Preceding the ridge will be a dry north-northwest flow over our
region with very little potential for any moisture to work its way
in. This is the hottest synoptic pattern that we see and this is
reflected in the NBM forecast high temp of 117 in Las Vegas Sunday
and Monday...which would tie our all-time record high that we have
reached five other times. Although this is not a certainty, there is
a 56 percent probability that Las Vegas will reach 117 degrees
during this time, so there is no good reason to adjust this downward
simply because it is a fairly rare occurrence. Death Valley should
be about 10 degrees higher...around 127. The NBM indicates a 25
percent probability that Furnace Creek could reach 130 degrees. 115-
119 degrees can be expected from Laughlin to Lake Havasu during this
time.

There is no indication of a break in the heat for our region through
the middle of next week among the medium range ensembles.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Expect diurnal trends today with light
northeasterly winds setting up late-morning below 10 kts, light
southeasterly winds in the mid-afternoon, and light southwesterly
winds after sunset. No operationally significant cloud cover
expected through the TAF period. Expect temperatures to exceed 100
degrees between 18Z and 06Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and
southeastern California...Expect diurnal trends today with speeds
less than 12 kts across the forecast area. KBIH will breeze from the
northwest through the morning, briefly from the southeast in the
afternoon, then will return northwest at sunset. KDAG will be
westerly this morning with brief easterly winds in the afternoon
before returning westerly after sunset. Gusty southwesterly winds
expected at KIFP and KEED in the afternoon with speeds to 20 kts. No
operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF period.
&&


.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees
of the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           WED, JUL 3  THU, JUL 4  FRI, JUL 5  SAT, JUL 6
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     116(1937)*  115(1985)*  116(2007)*  115(2007)*
Bishop        107(1984)*  107(2007)*  108(2007)*  105(2021)
Needles       119(2013)   121(2007)   121(1989)*  120(1922)*
Daggett       115(2001)   117(1991)   118(2007)*  115(2007)*
Kingman       111(1967)   110(2007)*  109(2007)*  108(2017)*
Desert Rock   113(2013)   112(1985)   112(2007)   111(2007)*
Death Valley  127(2013)   128(2013)   126(2013)*  127(2007)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature
and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes
which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the
forecast).

WARM MIN      WED, JUL 3  THU, JUL 4  FRI, JUL 5  SAT, JUL 6
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     92(2013)    91(2015)    89(2013)*   90(1957)*
Bishop        71(2013)    67(2001)    67(1984)*   67(1985)*
Needles       94(2013)    95(2013)    92(2013)    97(1903)
Daggett       86(2013)    88(2001)    84(1984)*   83(2007)*
Kingman       82(1906)    80(2013)    78(2021)    79(1981)
Desert Rock   86(1996)    83(2015)    80(1981)    83(1992)
Death Valley  102(2013)   100(1915)   110(1918)   99(2013)
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION/CLIMATE...Soulat

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