400
FXUS65 KVEF 051626
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
925 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to climb going into the
weekend and start of next week as numerous climate sites face high
probabilities of breaking daily as well as all-time temperature
records. Oppressive heat is expected to continue through at least
midweek.
&&

.UPDATE...As of 9 AM PDT this morning, temperatures in the deserts
are already pushing 100 degrees under sunny skies. Highs this
afternoon are on track to be around 10 degrees above average, part
of a trend that will continue through the weekend and into next
week. This means highs today in the 110s for most desert valleys,
reaching the 120s in the lowest elevations such as Death Valley and
the Colorado River Valley. This level of heat is dangerous to anyone
without adequate cooling. Use caution and plan ahead.
&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday.

July 4th observed temperatures generally ranged 1 to 2 degrees
higher than forecast temperatures with Bishop Airport tying the
daily record high temperature for the date with 107. This
temperature has occurred on July 4th on two other occasions... 2007
and 1984. A near-600 decameter high pressure system will continue to
move inland, ultimately placing the center of the high directly over
southern Nevada late-weekend into early next week. As a result,
chances of Las Vegas experiencing 118 degree temperatures (which
would be an all-time record high) are 47% Sunday, 20% Monday, 45%
Tuesday, and 39% Wednesday.

The aforementioned high pressure will loiter over the Desert
Southwest through at least midweek. Thereafter, guidance has split
suggestions... with one side favoring little-to-no movement of the
high pressure and another side favoring a slight northeastward jog
of the high pressure. The former solution would result in persistent
oppressive temperatures whereas the latter solution would result in
a modest increase in monsoonal moisture and a drop in temperatures.
That said, the level of monsoonal moisture that would funnel into
the area is uncertain. It`s likely that temperatures would drop
somewhat with the moisture, but the resultant humidity will provide
little-to-no relief.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will remain generally light and
variable through 15z and then gradually become northeast with speeds
up to 10 knots. Occasional gusts up to 18 knots will also be
possible through 22z. After 22z, look for winds to become lighter
and generally more out of the east-southeast with speeds less than 7
knots. Dangerous heat will continue through much of next week with
highs exceeding 112 degrees each afternoon. Little to no clouds are
expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Most areas will see wind under 10 knots and favor a
north to northeast direction this morning through the afternoon.
There may be a few late afternoon and evening westerly wind gusts
near KDAG with speeds between 10-20 knots, but those will diminish
after 06z. Otherwise, dangerously hot temperatures will continue
through much of next week with little to no cloud cover.
&&


.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           FRI, JUL 5  SAT, JUL 6  SUN, JUL 7  MON, JUL 8
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     116(2007)*  115(2007)*  116(2017)*  114(2021)*
Bishop        108(2007)*  105(2021)*  107(2021)*  109(2021)*
Needles       121(1989)*  120(1922)*  122(2017)   120(2017)*
Daggett       118(2007)   115(2007)*  116(1989)*  114(2021)*
Kingman       109(2007)*  108(2017)*  112(2017)   108(2017)*
Desert Rock   112(2007)   111(2007)*  111(2017)*  108(2017)*
Death Valley  126(2013)*  127(2007)*  129(2007)*  128(1913)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature
and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes
which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the
forecast).

WARM MIN      FRI, JUL 5  SAT, JUL 6  SUN, JUL 7  MON, JUL 8
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     89(2013)*   90(1957)*   93(2018)    92(2017)*
Bishop        67(1984)    67(1985)    72(2014)    70(1991)*
Needles       92(2013)    97(1903)    95(1942)    95(2018)
Daggett       84(1984)*   83(2007)*   80(2018)*   84(2021)*
Kingman       78(2021)    79(1981)    80(1917)    84(2014)
Desert Rock   80(1981)    83(1992)    82(1981)    81(2021)
Death Valley  110(1918)   99(2013)*   101(2021)   105(1921)
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meltzer
DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Gorelow

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