Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
800 FXUS65 KTWC 282036 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 136 PM MST Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a daily chance of thunderstorms. Storm chances increase over the weekend and early next week. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are currently popping up in the expected areas of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties in their higher elevations including the Chiricahua, Santa Rita, Whetstone, and Huachuca Mountains. CAPE values are currently 1500-2000 J/kg over the area with 1400-1600 J/kg of DCAPE in those areas. So far these storms have had strong updrafts for a few scans, but the core promptly falls. Later on in the afternoon and evening with more instability to tap into will be when we might see some more strong storms. Looking into the weekend, more moisture is on the way thanks to the high pressure reconsolidating to the east over Northern Texas introducing moist southeast flow instead of the dry west/southwest flow that we currently have in place. This increases the thunderstorm coverage to more of Southeast Arizona for this weekend into the next work week. PWs still continue to be still above the 1.5 inch mark for much of the area before increasing to 1.7-2.0 inches by mid week, overall increasing the flash flooding potential. Depending on when the moisture is set in place, how and where storms were the day before, and how much cloud cover there is the following day will all play a part in how much coverage there will be and if it will be an "up" or "down" monsoon day. We know that there will be "up" days, but not entirely sure what day as of now when that will be. When preparing for the holiday, keep your eye to the sky and stay weather aware to whatever events/plans you have. && .AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds at or around 8-12k ft AGL with another layer SCT- BKN 20-25k ft AGL through most of the forecast period with a slight break in cloud cover towards 29/12Z to 29/18Z. Isolated -TSRA this afternoon until 29/03Z and again after 29/20z with brief MFR conditions near storms, mainly south and east of KTUS. SFC winds generally 10 kts or less with the occasional afternoon gusts, except of gusty outflows from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will stick around through the forecast period. This will bring widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms and showers today and Saturday, mainly south and east of Tucson. Moisture will increase more through the weekend and into next week to bring higher chances and coverage for thunderstorms and showers each day. Strong erratic gusty winds of 40 mph or higher can be expected with any storm development, along with locally brief heavy rainfall. Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon with the occasional gust of 20 mph. Min RHs will generally be around 20% in the valleys and 30s in the mountains with good overnight recoveries. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Tetrault Aviation...Strongman Fire Weather....Strongman Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson